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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #850,861
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:04am Jan 17, 2025 4:04am
Quoting Mitiblotch
The only reason I am not buying is that today is Friday, which is usually a one-way traffic day. I would have joined in to sell but not this low. The only place I was willing to scalp sell was 232x area. Good luck to the bears. Anything in the 2020s I'm buying with both hands.
I like the word 'usually'.
Usually people using it have no statistics or whatever
Let's measure open_to_high and open_to_low of Fridays. Although, this ignores intraday reversal

You can consider only the shaded areas as 'one_way'
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Compare against Monday or other day?
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One can say "Day_name is usually a one-way traffic". Which is not true in any case.
Air force
  • #850,862
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:14am Jan 17, 2025 4:14am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I like the word 'usually'. Usually people using it have no statistics or whatever Let's measure open_to_high and open_to_low of Fridays. Although, this ignores intraday reversal You can consider only the shaded areas as 'one_way'{image} Compare against Monday or other day?{image} One can say "Day_name is usually a one-way traffic". Which is not true in any case.
Hi. You make a good point. We see traders here talk about probability all they time, but I suspect what they mean is that this is what they think will happen, - perhaps based on anecdotal/observational evidence they have experienced, and/or trading education they have undertaken. The future probability of something happening over another outcome (s) has got to be based on something real, not just a hunch- ie a defined set of variables over whatsoever time horizon in the past, such as the ones you present.
--------------------------------------------------

...bulls are trying to build off current dly lo!

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #850,863
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:20am Jan 17, 2025 4:20am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I like the word 'usually'. Usually people using it have no statistics or whatever Let's measure open_to_high and open_to_low of Fridays. Although, this ignores intraday reversal You can consider only the shaded areas as 'one_way'{image} Compare against Monday or other day?{image} One can say "Day_name is usually a one-way traffic". Which is not true in any case.
Usually means usually. It can be derived anecdotally or from hard, statistical evidence. Your second statement reads "usually those using it don't have any statistics or whatever". You also don't have statistics about the number of times people who use the word "usually" do not have statistics.
It is a manner of speech to use the word "usually' to suggest that something happens commonly. For a phenomenon to be common doesn't suggest it is more frequent than other phenomena.

"Having" and "providing" are two different things. I have anecdotal evidence. I don't need the statistics in this case because I have other mechanisms to detect when price will reverse against the direction set by Asia. I have discussed these things here in the past. I use ADR, pivots, and some other tools. And if I am wrong, like everybody can be in forex, my SL or hedge will bail me out.

It's good to read a post, find the spirit/character/import of that statement, and avoid fights. Even you do not have statistics for everything you say. I personally don't need it in this case. If you really want to get the stats, kindly go back to 1930 when GU started trading around that period and pull Friday stats then we can have a meaningful discussion. Anything else will be seen by me as an attempt to debate for the sake of it.
  • #850,864
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:20am Jan 17, 2025 4:20am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. You make a good point. We also see traders here talk about probability, but I suspect what they mean is that this is what they think will happen, based on anecdotal/observational evidence they have experienced, and/or trading education they have undertaken. The future probability of something happening over another outcome (s) has got to be based on something rea,l not just a hunch- ie a defined set of variables over whatsoever time horizon in the past, such as the ones you present. --------------------------------------------------...
Yes agreed. Probability is used as:

if it happened before it probably happens again or price moved x pips it should move similarly again but there are way too many variables to consider why it moved x today or last year.

MC simulation I mentioned before which we had disagreement before could be used as statistical probability on one’s setups if one knows failure rates over longer periods and risk applied more aggressively to create profitable scenarios using leverage without needing market to move 1:2 but can remain 1:1 movement or less.

Best
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #850,865
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:34am Jan 17, 2025 4:34am
...anyways, interestingly each day this week has made a failed attempt downside b/o of last week's 2191 lo, (as circled on chart below.)

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #850,866
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:57am Jan 17, 2025 4:57am
...so, we've had these multiple attempts to get south of this prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot supp that extends down to wed's 2155 lo. What can we logically deduce from this, with or without historical large sample empirical evidence,? (Better with!)

a. That there was latent demand in the form of buy limits in it. There may even have been sell stops under y/day's lo (in that zone,) and both of these have acted as liquidity for the move up today, from current dly lo.
b. That there might be sell stops under the zone. (Longer-term position/institutional sell stops will more likely be under 2100 current yrly lo.)

Also, what we think we know but again may not have empirical evidence for (- re discussion above,) is that the more times a potential supp/res zone is hit, the weaker it becomes. certainly sounds like common sense at least!

What is the significance of these deductions? Well;

i. There may be more buy limits in it?
ii. If price breaks thru it to the downside, the sell stops below it will either act as liquidity to fuel that southwards move, or get bought up and and produce a stop run for a move north, shaking out the weaker hands before it goes in that direction.
iii. If it get's tested again there may be a lesser probability of it holding as support, as buy limits may have become already triggered/ exhausted in it.

In trading, it can be useful/necessary to make educated/logical/informed deductions in the absence of large sample historical evidence/ or a lack of information to gather such evidence (at the retail level,) from which probability can be calculated. Large representative empirical evidence from which actual probability can be calculated should though, always be the preference.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #850,867
  • Jan 17, 2025 4:59am Jan 17, 2025 4:59am
Side changed, scalping done
in short 1.2205…..1 hr fvg filled
tp- 1.2137— S2
  • #850,868
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:16am Jan 17, 2025 5:16am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Usually means usually. It can be derived anecdotally or from hard, statistical evidence. Your second statement reads "usually those using it don't have any statistics or whatever". You also don't have statistics about the number of times people who use the word "usually" do not have statistics. It is a manner of speech to use the word "usually' to suggest that something happens commonly. For a phenomenon to be common doesn't suggest it is more frequent than other phenomena. "Having" and "providing" are two different things. I have anecdotal...
Quote
You also don't have statistics about the number of times people who use the word "usually" do not have statistics.
That's true. It was a bit of irony. Or maybe I can recall at least 3 people just from this thread, who used 'manner of speech' and were totally wrong. You included.

Quote
*It is a manner of speech to use the word "usually' to suggest that something happens commonly. **For a phenomenon to be common doesn't suggest it is more frequent than other phenomena.
*So this is a manner of speech or does it suggest that smth happens more commonly?
**This is about comparing different outcomes, not phenomena (diff. categories that can exist simultaneously).
You successfully created equivocation fallacy using the term 'common'
The 1st sentence acknowledges 'usually' as a way to describe frequent occurrence. 2nd negates this by asserting 'common' doesn't imply greater frequency.

Quote
I have anecdotal evidence. I don't need the statistics in this case because I have other mechanisms to detect when price will reverse [...] I use ADR, pivots, and some other tools.
That's pure gold. So much in this phrase. In general, not just about trading.
How your methods are systematically validated? By anecdotal mechanisms? Good.
Why these tools and not trendlines or ...?

Quote
If you really want to get the stats, kindly go back to 1930 when GU started trading around that period and pull Friday stats then we can have a meaningful discussion.
Moving the goalpost? Another fallacy.
Why 22 years of modern data not enough?
Kindly bring it. Something gonna change?

Quote
then we can have a meaningful discussion
Don't wanna hurt you, but ...
Air force
  • #850,869
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:25am Jan 17, 2025 5:25am
Quoting Georginson
Bought GU at 1.2180, target 1.2240...
Exited at 1.2210... +30 pips.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #850,870
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:32am Jan 17, 2025 5:32am
Same crazy bounce in nature , then better breaks and back 2218 , signal limit 2208 waiting
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #850,871
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:40am Jan 17, 2025 5:40am
Come on mister 200 sma band
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yes yes yes
  • #850,872
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:45am Jan 17, 2025 5:45am
...over 61.8% of the day's current main down move given back @ current p/back hi of that move, off the current dly lo. Y/day's 2260 hi, and certainly this wk's current 2306 hi seem a long way off though still. 1hr remains rangy overall right now. 81% of 30day adr traveled by price so far today, 94% of 13wk awr so far this week, on last trading day of the week. 30day adr metric is now currently up to 104pips!

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #850,873
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:49am Jan 17, 2025 5:49am
(YEAR 2010 - YEAR 2024) Jan Ranges
Jan 2010 = 560 pips
Jan 2011 = 652 pips
Jan 2012 = 560 pips
Jan 2013 = 564 pips
Jan 2014 = 359 pips
Jan 2015 = 597 pips
Jan 2016 = 736 pips
Jan 2017 = 687 pips
Jan 2018 = 888 pips
Jan 2019 = 790 pips
Jan 2020 = 312 pips
Jan 2021 = 308 pips
Jan 2022 = 391 pips
Jan 2023 = 607 pips
Jan 2024 = 190 pips

Most repeated is 550 - 680 pips (7 years of 15 years)

Current January 2025 range 1.2575 - 1.2099 = 476 pips.
Note: from above ranges, there is no January range of 400+ pips. This may be a warning that this current range of 476 pips will likely break.

.break to what range? I do not know. I can only simulate 560 pips possible range for this January...

1.2575 minus 560 = 1.2015
1.2099 plus 560 = 1.2664.

You already have some clue, beware of Trump inauguration factor next week which may spark volatility!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #850,874
  • Jan 17, 2025 5:59am Jan 17, 2025 5:59am
Quoting Moty
Come on mister 200 sma band {image}
Yes yes yes
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yes yes yes
  • #850,875
  • Jan 17, 2025 6:00am Jan 17, 2025 6:00am
Quoting Georginson
(YEAR 2010 - YEAR 2024) Jan Ranges Jan 2010 = 560 pips Jan 2011 = 652 pips Jan 2012 = 560 pips Jan 2013 = 564 pips Jan 2014 = 359 pips Jan 2015 = 597 pips Jan 2016 = 736 pips Jan 2017 = 687 pips Jan 2018 = 888 pips Jan 2019 = 790 pips Jan 2020 = 312 pips Jan 2021 = 308 pips Jan 2022 = 391 pips Jan 2023 = 607 pips Jan 2024 = 190 pips Most repeated is 550 - 680 pips (7 years of 15 years) Current January 2025 range 1.2575 - 1.2099 = 476 pips. Note: from above ranges, there is no January range of 400+ pips. This may be a warning that this current range...
Hi, great analysis Georginson, thanks for sharing.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #850,876
  • Jan 17, 2025 6:20am Jan 17, 2025 6:20am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, great analysis Georginson, thanks for sharing.
Thanks for the positive feedback mste.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #850,877
  • Jan 17, 2025 6:35am Jan 17, 2025 6:35am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Year 2024 (last year) produced minimum being 194 pips. Chance of having two consecutive minimum range is less than 10%, this explains why we are having explosive start to the year.
It's very common for the year to start with a big move, which revolves around humans moving it.
Short trades were instigated on the first of the month, something computers wouldn't do.
Also, your list of ranges highlights you can't apply any blanket rules to all years before they start.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #850,878
  • Jan 17, 2025 6:42am Jan 17, 2025 6:42am
people have to take note of the open,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #850,879
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:05am Jan 17, 2025 7:05am
After signal at 2208 still more may fall , the more delays the more likely fall and in full bear control still . Early bottom test , better 2136 low and try bull with full strength if possible. Waiting
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #850,880
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:19am Jan 17, 2025 7:19am
Quoting fontu
After signal at 2208 still more may fall , the more delays the more likely fall and in full bear control still . Early bottom test , better 2136 low and try bull with full strength if possible. Waiting {image} {image}
The trend is down although I see it might be at its end. Therefore, I fully expect price to run below the low, form a divergence before flying up with full speed.
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