Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 725 | Forex Factory

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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #14,481
  • Jan 15, 2025 9:05am Jan 15, 2025 9:05am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} The oscillator is based on the movements of the CMA so no coincidence there, additionally I can find only a few incidences where the half cycle doesn't turn down at the same time as or prior to the full cycle. That's enough testing for me considering my idea is only a guide as to what the CMA may do in the near future. It's really just to help me draw the extensions more accurately.
Yeah if its useful keep it, use it etc, if it isn't ditch it

I don't think any chart based indicator will ever be 100% accurate as they are forced and fixed onto a 2 dimensional screen and price and time are moving at higher dimensions, so until we have a screen that shows us higher dimensional price action, it'll always be a problem

Gann scaled his charts properly, but even then, things didn't fit perfectly
  • #14,482
  • Jan 15, 2025 9:54am Jan 15, 2025 9:54am
BTCUSD 1 mn
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  • #14,483
  • Jan 15, 2025 10:29pm Jan 15, 2025 10:29pm
Quoting acetrader
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory. Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these
...
Hi Ace,
I already use an indicator in a similar way to what you've described (it could be set up the same as you described) but I watch the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly support resistance levels. I trade the daily chart so these levels work for me.
  • #14,484
  • Jan 16, 2025 2:20am Jan 16, 2025 2:20am
This cycle was due to top Nov'24 (screenshot taken prior to Nov'24 - so its not up to date with current market action)

It's had a bit of impact on the SP500, but nothing major so far

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The overall trend of the RED cycle composite Index is DOWN until 2028

There's multiple smaller cycles all looking to bottom over the next few weeks/months too, as well as the larger yellow cycle still being up
  • #14,485
  • Jan 16, 2025 6:51am Jan 16, 2025 6:51am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote}{quote} Hi Ace, I already use an indicator in a similar way to what you've described (it could be set up the same as you described) but I watch the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly support resistance levels. I trade the daily chart so these levels work for me.

Hi Terry,
Thank you for that response. Looks like we are on the same page of the trading book. Best of trades to you, my friend.
  • #14,486
  • Jan 16, 2025 1:45pm Jan 16, 2025 1:45pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory. Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these moves may be more reliable...
Terry, I have some thoughts on your MO indicator!

I, too, was excited at the prospect of clear, early warning for CMA turning points. After pouring several hours of attention, I thought a similar thing that divergences weren't especially helpful. I still found it helpful, but at times it seemed to clutter the chart and show nothing new you can't already see (as PB said).

Though I stumbled on something that has peaked my interest.
Once again, I am grateful to the masters of this thread to tell me if I am barking up the wrong tree!

My original impression and frustration in the 1st marked up chart below. Followed by a stripped down version of Terrys MO.

The evolution: I would identify peaks after the MO would print a LH or HL, divide 1/2 from that peak to the 0-line, and observe bounces/rejections. To my delight I found several examples where my thinking seemed to hold up and resistance/support on the 1/2 peak anticipated a weakness in CMA before a turning point. There were, however, several times where the MO would just blow past the previous peak, and lines would need to be drawn again.

It just so happened, I noticed on the BTC 1m, the MO had a tendency to paint very close to the whole numbers of the chart. After stripping down the visuals of Terrys MO, I could see the MO seemed to oscillates in a range for strength/weakness and had a tendency to have strong reactions at levels.

As far as I can tell, the signals are less ambiguous when levels are applied. I'm going to try different time frames.

Thanks again for any feedback!
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  • #14,487
  • Edited 8:34pm Jan 16, 2025 7:37pm | Edited 8:34pm
An analysis of the BTC CMA positions. (ie. What's the likely position of the CMA256 top boundary?)
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One assumption could be that price has reached the top boundary of the aqua CMA256 as shown above.
If that's so we would expect the white CMA128 to roll over. For the white CMA128 to roll over as shown, the price would need to fall down to the white cross. This is well outside of the lower boundary of the aqua CMA256 meaning we need to re draw CMA256.
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Continuing with the assumption that CMA128 has turned down as shown, then CMA256 must also turn down to enclose the new lower price. For CMA256 to turn down as shown price will need to fall down to the aqua cross.
It's hard to imagine BTC recovering from this to make higher highs in the near future.
  • #14,488
  • Edited 10:11pm Jan 16, 2025 7:40pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting tmpascoe
An analysis of the BTC CMA positions.{image} One assumption could be that price has reached the top boundary of the aqua CMA256 as shown. If that's so we would expect the white CMA128 to roll over. For the white CMA128 to roll over as shown, the price would need to fall down to the white cross. This is well outside of the lower boundary of the aqua CMA256 meaning we need to re draw CMA256. {image}Continuing with the assumption that CMA128 has turned down as shown, then CMA256 must also turn down to enclose the new lower price. For CMA256 to turn...
My preferred view is that CMA128 will not roll over because the top boundary of CMA 256 is higher as shown below, but being aware of these different scenarios gives me something to keep an eye on.
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If price holds the level of consolidation or rises from here then CMA32 will turn up sometime over the next 4 days as I've shown. This would add credence to CMA128 continuing on rather than turning down.
  • #14,489
  • Edited 8:49pm Jan 16, 2025 8:30pm | Edited 8:49pm
BTCUSD_20250117_0325
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BTCUSD(30mn)_20250117_0333
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Have a good day
  • #14,490
  • Jan 17, 2025 2:32am Jan 17, 2025 2:32am
BitcoinUSD D1. I think when it closes above the yellow trendline it will go to 120k to 125k. Im long since some time.
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Stick to the plan!
  • #14,491
  • Jan 17, 2025 3:45am Jan 17, 2025 3:45am
Trading can feel overwhelming at first, but no one starts as an expert. I’m looking for a trading buddy so we can support each other, share ideas, and grow together. Whether it’s discussing trade ideas, learning from mistakes, or building discipline, having someone to collaborate with makes the journey easier and more fun. Let’s build confidence, develop skills, and work toward success, one trade at a time. If you’re up for it, let’s connect and grow together!
  • #14,492
  • Edited 10:17am Jan 17, 2025 8:43am | Edited 10:17am
BTCUSD(1mn)_20250117_1540
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Edit
BTCUSD(1mn)_20250117_1556
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Edit
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  • #14,493
  • Edited 3:13pm Jan 17, 2025 11:38am | Edited 3:13pm
Strong bullish propagation
BTCUSD_(propagH)_20250117_1825

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Edit:
BTCUSD_(45mn)OrLineH_20250117_2209
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  • #14,494
  • Edited Jan 18, 2025 12:53am Jan 17, 2025 4:06pm | Edited Jan 18, 2025 12:53am
The Orange.H line of the 45mn set the highest.
We move on to surveillance
of the possible bearish spread on the 30mn..
-------
My English is too imprecise, so I explain in French.
La ligne Orange.H du 45mn a servi de résistance et déterminé le niveau de rebroussement.
Il faut maintenant surveiller une
éventuelle propagation baissière. (Si la reprise immédiate de la hausse est écartée).
Pour celà on observe le 30mn.
Mais aussi (note1) le segment terminal de la Ligne Orange du 30mn tracé/transposé sur le 45mn et sur d'autres Ut courtes comme le 5mn.
-------

BTCUSD(30mnSurvPropagBaiss)_20250117_2302
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  • #14,495
  • Edited Jan 18, 2025 12:52am Jan 17, 2025 6:07pm | Edited Jan 18, 2025 12:52am
Note1:
Note1(5mn)_20250118_0105

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1:00 a.m. Saturday French time
For me, now it's time to sleep
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Edit
BTCUSD(30mn)_20250118_0745
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  • #14,496
  • Jan 20, 2025 12:13am Jan 20, 2025 12:13am
Quoting blueRocket
(triangle20Jan25)_BTCUSD_2HBinance_20250120_0654 {image}Recurring behavior (...)
Comportement récurrent des vendeurs à l'affût des triangles
Recurring behavior of sellers on the lookout for triangles
  • #14,497
  • Jan 20, 2025 2:14am Jan 20, 2025 2:14am
DAX m1:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #14,498
  • Jan 20, 2025 9:42pm Jan 20, 2025 9:42pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} My preferred view is that CMA128 will not roll over because the top boundary of CMA 256 is higher as shown below, but being aware of these different scenarios gives me something to keep an eye on. {image} If price holds the level of consolidation or rises from here then CMA32 will turn up sometime over the next 4 days as I've shown. This would add credence to CMA128 continuing on rather than turning down.
CMA32 turned up yesterday, all CMAsnow pointing higher. A sideways move over the next couple of days will see price reach the lower bound of the CMA32 channel, then I hope it's off to the races!
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  • #14,499
  • Jan 22, 2025 1:13am Jan 22, 2025 1:13am
Sorry... "Mauvais esprit"
If She needs a logo
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  • #14,500
  • Jan 22, 2025 2:23am Jan 22, 2025 2:23am
DAX m5:
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Stick to the plan!
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