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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #14,461
  • Jan 14, 2025 4:43am Jan 14, 2025 4:43am
Commonality DAX abd BTC in 1 mn
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  • #14,462
  • Jan 14, 2025 5:32am Jan 14, 2025 5:32am
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  • #14,463
  • Jan 14, 2025 5:34am Jan 14, 2025 5:34am
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  • #14,464
  • Edited 5:53am Jan 14, 2025 5:38am | Edited 5:53am
MO 512
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  • #14,465
  • Edited 5:53am Jan 14, 2025 5:40am | Edited 5:53am
MO 256
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  • #14,466
  • Jan 14, 2025 5:42am Jan 14, 2025 5:42am
MO 128
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  • #14,467
  • Jan 14, 2025 5:44am Jan 14, 2025 5:44am
MO 64
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  • #14,468
  • Jan 14, 2025 5:46am Jan 14, 2025 5:46am
MO 32
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  • #14,469
  • Jan 14, 2025 6:10am Jan 14, 2025 6:10am
Quoting parisboy
{image}
After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory.
Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these moves may be more reliable as an indicator for a CMA direction change.
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  • #14,470
  • Jan 14, 2025 6:44am Jan 14, 2025 6:44am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory. Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these moves may be more reliable...
Terry, you know me, I am a nice guy.

I just wanted not to discourage good will !

MO is like all (most) indicators, it shows nothing more than that you can notice by eye by looking at Price Action itself.

It is why the paper was titled " Haurlan Paper". and not Mc Clellan Oscillator.

and why I focused on the Haurlans's methodology ; of proportional control" (from time to time opening the window and checking where we are and looking if the target has not moved significantly.

I agree it looks not very exciting for computers geeks , but works not so bad.
  • #14,471
  • Jan 14, 2025 7:03am Jan 14, 2025 7:03am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Terry, you know me, I am a nice guy. I just wanted not to discourage good will ! MO is like all (most) indicators, it shows nothing more than that you can notice by eye by looking at Price Action itself. It is why the paper was titled " Haurlan Paper". and not Mc Clellan Oscillator. and why I focused on the Haurlans's methodology ; of proportional control" (from time to time opening the window and checking where we are and looking if the target has not moved significantly. I agree it looks not very exciting for computers geeks ,...
Yes, spot on Alain as usual. Thanks for the non discouragement.
I to, like the analogy of looking out the window to see how you're going and then making slight adjustments to stay on course. That's what trading is about.
  • #14,472
  • Jan 14, 2025 7:32am Jan 14, 2025 7:32am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Yes, spot on Alain as usual. Thanks for the non discouragement. I to, like the analogy of looking out the window to see how you're going and then making slight adjustments to stay on course. That's what trading is about.
you are welcome Terry.

I see it more as an encouragement to find the truth by yourself.

it is more efficient

a) for you ; it is your judgment not mine - even if we have the same
b) I appear publicly less as the usual "guru" - "arrogant" as they wrote on the Sentient Trader Discord
c) This apparent benevolence is a way in fact to dissimulate my natural "arrogance"
  • #14,473
  • Jan 14, 2025 11:35am Jan 14, 2025 11:35am
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  • #14,474
  • Jan 14, 2025 12:26pm Jan 14, 2025 12:26pm
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  • #14,475
  • Jan 15, 2025 12:30am Jan 15, 2025 12:30am
[quote=tmpascoe;15115539]{quote} After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory. Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these moves may be more reliable as an indicator for a CMA direction change. {image}[/quote

Hi Terry,

I must say I agree with Parisboy, but as he said I don't ever want to discourage any trader from investigating new indicators & ideas. I have 3 customed code indicators that I use to compliment my actual method of trading. My actual method is centered around one of Ganns's method & Murrey Math. I believe Murrey is a derivative of Gann's & his discovery of the Square of Nine. Anyway, below is an idea I would like for you & Parisboy to take a look at.

Take a 4HR or 1 HR chart & scroll back in time say 6 months or more, then going forward mark all significant Highs & Lows where Price hit & quickly moved away from. If the candles are recent Highs put a horizontal line at the top of the wick & a line say 2 points below the height of the first line thereby forming a horizontal channel inclosing the high of the price movement. Next do the same for the recent lows. Follow this procedure until you reach the current day on your chart. I think it may be better to use a 1HR chart.

After this task is completed load the CMA's indicator you are currently using & see if the two of these on the chart provides any better information that each would provide on their own. Just an idea that I haven't tried. I have loaded the horizontal lines on a chart as described & it's amazing how price will revisit these areas & react in pretty much the same fashion most of the time, but not always.

I would be interested to know if you have time to give this a look & the outcome. If you have not the time or interest I totally understand.

Best of trades to you, my friend.
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  • #14,476
  • Jan 15, 2025 2:24am Jan 15, 2025 2:24am
Quoting acetrader
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} After much deliberation I have my doubts about the usefulness of the McClellan oscillator as an early warning indicator for a CMA to change direction. The problem is that a divergence in the MO simply means that the CMA is strengthening or weakening, it doesn't mean the CMA will change direction. I've seen many examples where divergence occurred, the CMA strengthened or weakened slightly but continued with its original trajectory. Occasionally the MO will move rapidly towards the zero line without rebounding, these
...
That is exactly what MM is

Markets are geometry and geometry is maths, so you will find as price moves along hits on various types of maths based concepts

Gann used various squares, for different markets as a "one size fits all" doesn't work
  • #14,477
  • Jan 15, 2025 4:23am Jan 15, 2025 4:23am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote}{quote} That is exactly what MM is Markets are geometry and geometry is maths, so you will find as price moves along hits on various types of maths based concepts Gann used various squares, for different markets as a "one size fits all" doesn't work
One thing I have noticed is that the full cycle usually doesn't turn down/up unless the half cycle has already done so.

You could cycle through each of the MO CMA lengths, say 8 then 16, 32, 64,128, 256, 512 and assume that if the half cycle has not changed direction then the full cycle is likely to continue its trajectory.

You could use the arrows in the bottom right corner for this but the MO CMA gives a much better picture of the CMA strength.

Applying this to Bitcoin, you can see that CMA32 is down, putting CMA64 in jeopardy. CMA16 has just turned back up so the possibility exists that CMA32 could follow it.
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  • #14,478
  • Jan 15, 2025 5:16am Jan 15, 2025 5:16am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} One thing I have noticed is that the full cycle usually doesn't turn down/up unless the half cycle has already done so. You could cycle through each of the MO CMA lengths, say 8 then 16, 32, 64,128, 256, 512 and assume that if the half cycle has not changed direction then the full cycle is likely to continue its trajectory. You could use the arrows in the bottom right corner for this but the MO CMA gives a much better picture of the CMA strength. Applying this to Bitcoin, you can see that CMA32 is down, putting CMA64 in jeopardy. CMA16 has...
Hi

I don't use CMA's - it'll be a laborious task of manually back testing if it works and/or if there's any coincidences between the Osc and the CMA's
  • #14,479
  • Edited 7:09am Jan 15, 2025 6:14am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Hi I don't use CMA's - it'll be a laborious task of manually back testing if it works and/or if there's any coincidences between the Osc and the CMA's
The oscillator is based on the movements of the CMA so no coincidence there, additionally I can find only a few incidences where the half cycle doesn't turn down at the same time as or prior to the full cycle. That's enough testing for me considering my idea is only a guide as to what the CMA may do in the near future. It's really just to help me draw the extensions more accurately.
  • #14,480
  • Edited 9:02pm Jan 15, 2025 6:35am | Edited 9:02pm
trendline channel may change its direction downside
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