Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting cesarnc

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Since last week actually... But I didn't use SL. I was adding small lots while it was going up. Never saw 0600s coming and that costed be some caffein + cigarrettes. But the long term r:r ratio for shorts were better than for longs. As it still is at this level.

Right now, 250 hour EMA lies at 0462. This is a usual place of negotiation and break of this EMA brings further downmove.

Note how cable stopped right at it this morning.

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Quoting ratman

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I am still trieing to make trading and my thinking as one even, still trieing, altought I feel i am getting closer and closer. this emotion factor is still a problem for me

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Quoting Alfa159

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yes thats right.. I got on the train late.. at 2.0505, but aiming much further down so I am not complaining a lot. Though as you said there is the risk of some further northern action perhaps if 0462 is not breached. 3 hours later we shall have a better idea after America's Data.
No matter the case is, I believe we will be seeing another rally towards 0470 before the pair decides its next step.

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Quoting cesarnc

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Emotion factor is a killer. I learned to deal with it trading smaller lots (allowing bigger drawdowns) for the larger term (days/weeks) with remarkable risk:reward ratio, aiming big pips.

Trying to catch up with the market day by day, struggling for 20 pips, with all the noise, news, central bank officers can drive you insane...

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Quoting cesarnc

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Trying to catch up with the market day by day, struggling for 20 pips, with all the noise, news, central bank officers can drive you insane...

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Quoting cesarnc

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Agree... In case of bad USD data, I'm selling rallies rather than trying to catch the panic move up. The correction tone is set for this week, no reason to expect new highs and a lot of indications that we can expect new lows...

Sell rallies for nice r:r and let cable roll until 0400, the 23% fib of last bull run.

Also keep Euro and Swiss charts open. They filter Cable's volatility and show you how "dollar" is being traded.

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Quoting Alfa159

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A simple and reliable (not 100%) moving average chart showing that the fastest one crossed the slowest in hourly studies.

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Quoting demontaz

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I agree Cesarnc, I trade 4H charts and feel a lot less stressed

How do know when to take profits tho?

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Quoting cesarnc

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Correction periods (as I don't call it "downtrend") usually form a downwards channel in the daily / weekly charts.

I'm now running the fib: low 1.9622 / high 2.0652. I still want to see behavior at the 23% fib (0400 area), because hanging above that level denotes bulls are wounded but not dead.

On breach of 0400, I'll add targeting 38% fib and will start taking partial profit leaving smaller positions for 50% fib area.

At the 50% fib I'll start loading long positions again, fundamentals confirming. Again, that will provide much better r:r ratio than keeping shorting the pair.

To note that recent corrective periods last 8-10 weeks.

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Quoting cesarnc

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Correction periods (as I don't call it "downtrend") usually form a downwards channel in the daily / weekly charts.

I'm now running the fib: low 1.9622 / high 2.0652. I still want to see behavior at the 23% fib (0400 area), because hanging above that level denotes bulls are wounded but not dead.

On breach of 0400, I'll add targeting 38% fib and will start taking partial profit leaving smaller positions for 50% fib area.

At the 50% fib I'll start loading long positions again, fundamentals confirming. Again, that will provide much better r:r ratio than keeping shorting the pair.

To note that recent corrective periods last 8-10 weeks.

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Quoting Forexpupil

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Hi Cesarnec

What time frame do you use to put fibos? On Daily chart the lowest point that i see is at 1.9188, at 4 h is 1,9651 at 2007/06/08.

What do you use to calculate supports and resistances day by day?

thanks

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Quoting OrionsWay

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we could of just finished a major wave 5 from the entire move from nov 05 lo, which eventually would call for a run perhaps to 1.84xx or lower

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Quoting OrionsWay

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we could of just finished a major wave 5 from the entire move from nov 05 lo, which eventually would call for a run perhaps to 1.84xx or lower

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Quoting cesarnc

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I'm using the fib from 9622, the lowest level of the previous correction. Better seen in the daily chart.

for S&Rs I use daily pivot levels. Cable stopped at S2 today. S3 lies at the 23% fib area. Clutch of techis in the same level denotes strong support/resistance, so anything below 0400 today would surprise me big time.

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Quoting cesarnc

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I'm on this one, too. Not for EW reasons, but for fundamental reasons. When the recent UK hikes kicks in, slowing down the economy, GBP tends to go weaker. If this matches with better sentiment in the US, then the USD strong sentiment will install. US raising rates will add to the scenario.

But this is a looooonnnggg term view... months and months... I would say 2008 only.

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