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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #21,241
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:00am Jul 26, 2007 4:00am
Quoting baron193
Yes, Alpha159, 2.0470 ,actually it's more important, you are right...because break of this very strong support (and fibb level) will confirm the short trade IMO also.
though i am confident the pair will break the 2.0470... we will see
  • #21,242
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:01am Jul 26, 2007 4:01am
Finally closed below my weekly pivot, I think next stop will be 2.0390 (Fib support)
  • #21,243
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:03am Jul 26, 2007 4:03am
Quoting demontaz
Finally closed below my weekly pivot, I think next stop will be 2.0390 (Fib support)
i even have room until 2.0271 in my weekly study... Hopefully. Only concern I have is the weird effects of the US data lately.
  • #21,244
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:04am Jul 26, 2007 4:04am
Quoting ratman
wel here is another point of view, i see H&S formation in 4H chart, only need second shoulder, that could be given by new home sales today, if happens so there is potential drop till at least 350
the second shoulder need to rise to 540 aprox !!
  • #21,245
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:08am Jul 26, 2007 4:08am
Could you tell me from which points U have yours Fibo levels?
  • #21,246
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:08am Jul 26, 2007 4:08am
Quoting Alfa159
very good... May the pips be with you my friend... Also I read that you dont use stop loss and hedge.. thats what i will do once i have more resources available. I hate stop losses sometimes.
It's nice to know someone else goes against conventional logic - the devil knows where my stop loss is even if it is 100 pips down - he dives down and hits it exactly - i mean exactly to the pip - then whizzes back up before i can finger my mouse so to speak...

I have lost more money through stop loss than any other reason...

Lord knows there's got to be a better way - hedging ? the correlations don't always work - sometimes the DOW goes mirror image of crude oil, sometimes they soar together - there ain't no telling - not even with the best charts - I reckon every day is different, the charts cannot always cope, and the pulse of the market is what counts...
  • #21,247
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:10am Jul 26, 2007 4:10am
Best traders know where to enter position and patient if missed the signal..
15pip stop lost for 400 - 500 pip profit..
  • #21,248
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:11am Jul 26, 2007 4:11am
Quoting allserene
It's nice to know someone else goes against conventional logic - the devil knows where my stop loss is even if it is 100 pips down - he dives down and hits it exactly - i mean exactly to the pip - then whizzes back up before i can finger my mouse so to speak...

I have lost more money through stop loss than any other reason...

Lord knows there's got to be a better way - hedging ? the correlations don't always work - sometimes the DOW goes mirror image of crude oil, sometimes they soar together - there ain't no telling - not even with the best charts - I reckon every day is different, the charts cannot always cope, and the pulse of the market is what counts...
this month ALL my bad trades are because my stop loss was hit and the pair went back the way i thought it would after. and I do not have close SL too.. I really think it through but it gets hit.

Bad thing with hedging is that if you eventually loose and want to give up, your loss would be a loot. therefore you need good capital and strategy to hedge.. aint easy.
  • #21,249
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:13am Jul 26, 2007 4:13am
Quoting Alfa159
very good... May the pips be with you my friend... Also I read that you dont use stop loss and hedge.. thats what i will do once i have more resources available. I hate stop losses sometimes.
Stop losses take a lot of traders out of business in no time.....I was there and leanrt to trade like a BANK.....now I can make profits going "UP" and "DOWN"...with the rite timing.

Breeze
  • #21,250
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:13am Jul 26, 2007 4:13am
Chunnel trade maybe shaping up into a winner for holding
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #21,251
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:19am Jul 26, 2007 4:19am
By current conversation I have situattion exactly like allserine, my analisis is 80% correct but mostly my sl are hit. so I am considering to start trading without SL altought it seems so crazy but looks like it is the only way
  • #21,252
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:23am Jul 26, 2007 4:23am
Quoting Plutonite
Hi guys

looks like the dip is heading lower, this H4 bar is the first one into tokyo so too early to tell, but the price action is smelling like a big bad bear waiting to happen. I'm entering short with a VERY tight SL..unwinding like this should not produce noise on the charts but should be straightforward. We'll see, wont we.

Good luck.
Closing now for a crappy 40 pips, although we will see 2.0415 methinks. It's just not comfortable shorting against the new short term trend (up), I'll watch from the side as you guys make pips.
*tears*

EDIT: It's kinda hard pinning fibs on this one, it's been going up for weeks on end, last true "bottom" was on June 8. Gawd. Also, EURUSD has formed a bottom, and I'm buying now at 1.3720.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,253
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:25am Jul 26, 2007 4:25am
Nothing wrong with SL's being hit providing when you place them they are out of range for the daily random noise. Beyond that noise is probably telling you that the trade has lost its winning setup and you would want to be out anyways, unless you want to hold alot of heat for sometimes a long period of time.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #21,254
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:26am Jul 26, 2007 4:26am
allserene, IF it was easy....it wouldn't be a challenge, there wouldn't be any money in it,( 90% need to loose, for the 10% to make money), and finally everyone would be doing it....is that what you really want ? for it to be easy and predictable?
There is no certainty in this game, you need to develop a "feel" for it, and some times even the best looking set ups will turn around and take your S/L out....without money management you will be toast, sooner or later.
I haven't been trading the currencies for a small while now, switching to the DAX futures instead, the same rules apply to all these contracts...
Biggest joker
  • #21,255
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:30am Jul 26, 2007 4:30am
Quoting ratman
By current conversation I have situattion exactly like allserine, my analisis is 80% correct but mostly my sl are hit. so I am considering to start trading without SL altought it seems so crazy but looks like it is the only way
SL are not as effective as watching the market move and quitting after the bars mature - or indeed, staying in after realizing the false alarm. I rarely place operational SL (just safety bumpers in case the market goes mad/I lose my internet+phone/madness) because noise can and will throw you out of the market.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,256
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:34am Jul 26, 2007 4:34am
Quoting ratman
By current conversation I have situattion exactly like allserine, my analisis is 80% correct but mostly my sl are hit. so I am considering to start trading without SL altought it seems so crazy but looks like it is the only way
You don't need to go radical, ratman.

Stoploss are better placed at "tragedy" levels, to prevent from massive losses due to unexpected market moves.

If your MM allows, say, 30 pips loss (never trade cable with less than that), you can manually close the trade at this level, if the pair breaches that level. It can just trade it and bounce off, and you are still alive.

For instance: shorting cable now at 0485, gives you a "mental SL" of 0515, which is good. But the stoploss should be at 0558 where the weekly candle would turn bullish again and above recent resistance 0530/40. In this situation, cable could go further up. But at 0515 it's not likely to hold.
  • #21,257
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:37am Jul 26, 2007 4:37am
Quoting cesarnc
You don't need to go radical, ratman.

Stoploss are better placed at "tragedy" levels, to prevent from massive losses due to unexpected market moves.

If your MM allows, say, 30 pips loss (never trade cable with less than that), you can manually close the trade at this level, if the pair breaches that level. It can just trade it and bounce off, and you are still alive.

For instance: shorting cable now at 0485, gives you a "mental SL" of 0515, which is good. But the stoploss should be at 0558 where the weekly candle would turn bullish again and above recent resistance 0530/40. In this situation, cable could go further up. But at 0515 it's not likely to hold.
out or curiosity Cesar... You are also short on cable at the moment right?
  • #21,258
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:40am Jul 26, 2007 4:40am
Quoting Alfa159
out or curiosity Cesar... You are also short on cable at the moment right?
Since last week actually... But I didn't use SL. I was adding small lots while it was going up. Never saw 0600s coming and that costed me some caffein + cigarrettes. But the long term r:r ratio for shorts were better than for longs. As it still is at this level.

Right now, 250 hour EMA lies at 0462. This is a usual place of negotiation and break of this EMA brings further downmove.

Note how cable stopped right at it this morning.
  • #21,259
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:41am Jul 26, 2007 4:41am
I am still trieing to make trading and my thinking as one even, still trieing, altought I feel i am getting closer and closer. this emotion factor is still a problem for me
  • #21,260
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:43am Jul 26, 2007 4:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.jpg Size: 55 KB

lets examine the above chart, do you see the short entry point?
where do you think the safe S/L should have been?...2.0620 perhaps?
hindsight trading?... not really...the trendline break should have been the first
bit of the puzzle....
Biggest joker
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