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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #21,121
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:00am Jul 25, 2007 10:00am
Quoting dswk
0.0500 touched... finally.
First objective : 2.0470, second objective 2.0380...
  • #21,122
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:02am Jul 25, 2007 10:02am
2.0444 looks nice to me...
just like IRAQ penalty shoot-out in the semi-final Asian AFC cup against Korea...
  • #21,123
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:04am Jul 25, 2007 10:04am
Quoting dswk
First objective : 2.0470, second objective 2.0380...
470? yup, agreed. Previously resistance, now support...
  • #21,124
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:07am Jul 25, 2007 10:07am
Quoting pinchapip
from OANDA's forum:

"The re-sets of vaiable rate mortgages is going to be a killer. Starting in August, some $286 BILLION in mortgages will re-set to interest rates - ALL WITHIN 90 DAYS. This represents 35% of ALL outstanding ARMs.

To relate, back in Feb/March, 100 Billion of them reset.

End of their info.

Now, you know that after they reset, it takes a month or 2 before they miss their payments or are LATE making the payment (this is reported each month somewhere). Then, after 4 - 6 months, the bank starts the foreclosure process (filing papers - this figure is also reported each month). So, there is a slight time delay - we should start to see some VERY negative news starting about November/December - just in time for Christmas!

What I also learned was that last Dec. UBS was calling for 4 rate cuts for the FED. They now are not.

Also - UBS is currently calling for ECB to HIKE 2 more times this year and 2 times in the first half of 2008."

another oandian i see.

altogether there is one trillion usd due for reseting, even if most people dont end up in default, a big protion of us paycheck all of the sudden is gonna have to pay for those higher interests rates...

i must say, it dont look pretty right now.
  • #21,125
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:16am Jul 25, 2007 10:16am
Either way, as long as I do my homework...I wil make pips whether the cable elevator goes up or down....
  • #21,126
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:28am Jul 25, 2007 10:28am
Guys, could you enlighten me? I get the USD to JPY relation, but why did cable go down with bad USD data? What is the connection to GBP here that Im missing?
  • #21,127
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:28am Jul 25, 2007 10:28am
Cable still priced very high-what ever the excuses. Trend just start going down. Next UK housing, and Eur IFO news expected to come out weaker than last month.
We may see 20380 before London news
  • #21,128
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:37am Jul 25, 2007 10:37am
Quoting VEC
another oandian i see.

altogether there is one trillion usd due for reseting, even if most people dont end up in default, a big protion of us paycheck all of the sudden is gonna have to pay for those higher interests rates...

i must say, it dont look pretty right now.
Looks really pretty if you don't have a mortgage, have your dosh in GBP in UK banks at 6.5% and are LONG cable and you are planning to buy a house in the US...

In fact it's the prettiest thing since Liz Hurley's dress - and that's pretty..

bring it on !
  • #21,129
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:02am Jul 25, 2007 11:02am
Quoting fxwarlock
my pending buy triggered at 2.0500

Good luck with that.

If this 4hr bar closes below the last one, most likely we're going down more.
  • #21,130
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:05am Jul 25, 2007 11:05am
aiming 2.0475 and 2.0446 respectively..
Only concern is that the hourly bar closed above 2.0507 resistance I had.
  • #21,131
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:11am Jul 25, 2007 11:11am
Quoting Alfa159
aiming 2.0475 and 2.0446 respectively..
Only concern is that the hourly bar closed above 2.0507 resistance I had.
Of course it will try to make a comeback, but it may have been temporarily wounded, it should continue lower today
  • #21,132
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:12am Jul 25, 2007 11:12am
Quoting cesarnc
Among all the "I think it is", all I see is profit taking for the end of the month on lack of important/strong data.

Not a big deal, actually. There are 1,000 pips to TP and some day the guys are gonna cash in, wouldn't you?
You been loading the truck?

I know I have every now and then I pack another box. And I agree on the profit taking view, just waiting now for the Kiwi news muwahahaha
  • #21,133
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:12am Jul 25, 2007 11:12am
Quoting wwwin
Of course it will try to make a comeback, but it may have been temporarily wounded, it should continue lower today
my bias is that way as well... Might even hit 2.0525 before going down further.

Might see 2.0300 by the end of the week.
  • #21,134
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:17am Jul 25, 2007 11:17am
Quoting Alfa159
my bias is that way as well... Might even hit 2.0525 before going down further.

Might see 2.0300 by the end of the week.
that would be nice, "the market goes up, u make money, the market goes down, u make money"

what commercial is that? Barron's?
  • #21,135
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:21am Jul 25, 2007 11:21am
by the way I updated my graphs which concern me a little...
  • #21,136
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:39am Jul 25, 2007 11:39am
2.0513 is an important fib level in my H4 studies and the price is lingering there. I wonder if the day will have enough momentum to break this fib level of mine. Also wondering the effects of the Beige Book.
  • #21,137
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:56am Jul 25, 2007 11:56am
Quoting Sniper
You been loading the truck?
For sometime only adding shorts on better long term r:r ratio than long position.

Level of stress decreases a lot doing this. It wasn't a matter of IF there would be profit taking, but when. So I quit trying to figure out "what's up for the day"....
  • #21,138
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:17pm Jul 25, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting cesarnc
For sometime only adding shorts on better long term r:r ratio than long position.

Level of stress decreases a lot doing this. It wasn't a matter of IF there would be profit taking, but when. So I quit trying to figure out "what's up for the day"....
What is your (active) most "distant" short for cable?
  • #21,139
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:18pm Jul 25, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting supergoncas
What is your (active) most "distant" short for cable?
Surely nothing below 2.02xx?
  • #21,140
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:36pm Jul 25, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting supergoncas
Surely nothing below 2.02xx?
I know you asked Cesar about it....but I can't resist...what about 1.95http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
For he that would be deceived, let him.
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