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Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

  • #6,341
  • Nov 14, 2024 1:14pm Nov 14, 2024 1:14pm
Ok I get that the charts between heiken ashi and plain 1 minute are different. But once I'm in a trade I'm watching the little box that tells me I'm winning or losing not really watching the candle. So I'm not trading candles while I'm in a trade at that point its superfluous all I care about is profit and loss. This is especially true on days with mediocre PA, where you getting smaller wins. Once a trade begins I keep track of 2 things profit and loss and when candle is closing.
  • #6,342
  • Nov 14, 2024 1:33pm Nov 14, 2024 1:33pm
Ah ok thanks, just wondering if you have any advice or direction for how we could incorporate that style of trade management ourselves?

Also wondering if you wait for close of candle or enter during a candle if you see a breakout or something
  • #6,343
  • Edited 2:33pm Nov 14, 2024 2:13pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting benjam1n
Ah ok thanks, just wondering if you have any advice or direction for how we could incorporate that style of trade management ourselves? Also wondering if you wait for close of candle or enter during a candle if you see a breakout or something
It's a mindset I've developed over trading full time for 18 years. I am more apt to enter/exit trades during weak or sideways PA because wins will be smaller. Conversely strong PA or trends I'm more likely to wait for the close.
You need to trade like you not me. What's your comfort zone? Our psyches are different, therefore our trading will different. I could just be just a little and it could be a lot. What you see on these pages coming from me or RickM is not a set in stone template. It's systems that we like and are comfortable using. You need to change the templates to suit your needs. If you try to trade exactly like us you are in for frustration.
  • #6,344
  • Nov 14, 2024 2:23pm Nov 14, 2024 2:23pm
Quoting benjam1n
{quote} Thanks a lot for the reply, the 3rd trade can be seen in this image, where the real price closing value is indicated by the pink line (not the HA close as that's obviously not the actual close in case anyone's wondering).... The real closing price shows that the entry and exit candles would likely result in a loss? Thanks again {image}
One thing you could try is using a modified heiken ashi candle with the actual close rather than the (O + H + L + C)/4 close.
It's something I've been experimenting with recently because I like the smoothing of the candles that HA gives, but it certainly can give you the wrong idea on where you could have got in and out on a historical chart (usually it looks more favourable than it really was).
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,345
  • Nov 14, 2024 3:29pm Nov 14, 2024 3:29pm
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} It's a mindset I've developed over trading full time for 18 years. I am more apt to enter/exit trades during weak or sideways PA because wins will be smaller. Conversely strong PA or trends I'm more likely to wait for the close. You need to trade like you not me. What's your comfort zone? Our psyches are different, therefore our trading will different. I could just be just a little and it could be a lot. What you see on these pages coming from me or RickM is not a set in stone template. It's systems that we like and are comfortable using....
Thanks again for the help, I'll keep working on it. Fyi your charting / trading software most likely has an option to show entries / exits on the chart, could save you a bit of time when showing us. Look forward to seeing more trading from you!
  • #6,346
  • Nov 15, 2024 11:38am Nov 15, 2024 11:38am
2 trade day a small loss followed by a big win. Probably will not be around much next week. It's our anniversary and we are headed to St. Lucia for a week.
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  • #6,347
  • Nov 15, 2024 12:41pm Nov 15, 2024 12:41pm
Happy Anniversary!!
  • #6,348
  • Nov 15, 2024 5:52pm Nov 15, 2024 5:52pm
Packing done, relaxing now. Early to bed we leave for Phoenix at 5am.
  • #6,349
  • Nov 15, 2024 11:53pm Nov 15, 2024 11:53pm
safe trip buddy.
See you refreshed next week
  • #6,350
  • Nov 16, 2024 6:36pm Nov 16, 2024 6:36pm
Quoting rockypoint
2 trade day a small loss followed by a big win. Probably will not be around much next week. It's our anniversary and we are headed to St. Lucia for a week. {image}
Enjoy your anniversary Rocky, SO NO TRADING
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,351
  • Edited 7:47pm Nov 16, 2024 7:19pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting benjam1n
Ah ok thanks, just wondering if you have any advice or direction for how we could incorporate that style of trade management ourselves? Also wondering if you wait for close of candle or enter during a candle if you see a breakout or something
Hi Benjam1n

I would always wait till candle close because big candles often reverse back to the previous mid point due to liquidity imbalances. If I trade on M1, I normally take reversals for a few Ticks on big candles if the Delta is huge during the London session. That's a 85% win rate right there without any other rules.

For traders learning the Bollinger Band squeeze - stick to M5

This was my chart from Friday Night and I was trading on a laptop from Lightning Ridge, a small mining town in the middle of the Queensland desert about 660 KM from my home base - and I made a big mistake.
Sure I made a tidy profit but I didn't follow my rules because I was watching the BLOODY P&L too much. If you look at the $$$$$ you often get out when you shouldn't - and I failed here.

First I suggest you skip trading Japanese Candles and instead trade Bars. We are really interested in the whole range of a candle / Bar, not the Close point.
Let's look at one trade I took on Friday night using Volume Bars. What that means is normal Volume bars will be dark blue, thrust down on high Delta is Red, Thrust up on high Delta is Green. Low volume bars are yellow and we should pay little attention to them.

You can see on M5, the move took off south and the higher highs were acting correctly. You can see the Yellow circle should have been my "get out signal" but I took profit at the 21EMA (green circle) instead of waiting for the obvious signal. That incorrect "take profit" probably cost me $1500 and 5890 was the correct exit point.

But normally Bars are fantastic too, just follow the whole range and not the close, you don't need to know if they are bullish or bearish.

Interesting a few years back, " I took a Stress Test to see what my Heart Rate was doing.
One interesting fact was my Herat Rate increased incredibly when I viewed BIG BULLISH or BEARISH Japanese Candles but my Heart Rate was mostly unchanged if they were Big Bullish / Bearish Bars.

So Look for a Squeeze (eye sight, add Keltner channel or use Band Widith indicator etc.) and then follow a clear breakout on the M5 candle.
I generally trade M2 but M5 is good when you need less stress in your life.

PS. If you are a Forex Trader, then stick to H1 Squeezes and your'e do very well.
I am waiting to see if AUDUSD on H1 will break lower. Maybe but lets wait.

PSSSSSSS. WATCH BLOOD BITCOIN
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,352
  • Edited 8:02am Nov 17, 2024 2:08am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Benjam1n I would always wait till candle close because big candles often reverse back to the previous mid point due to liquidity imbalances. If I trade on M1, I normally take reversals for a few Ticks on big candles if the Delta is huge during the London session. That's a 85% win rate right there without any other rules. For traders learning the Bollinger Band squeeze - stick to M5 This was my chart from Friday Night and I was trading on a laptop from Lightning Ridge, a small mining town in the middle of the Queensland desert about 660...
Thanks a lot for this Rick, very helpful! Do those red horizontal lines on the BTC chart suggest that after a squeeze you also wait for price to break obvious s/r too?

Thanks!
  • #6,353
  • Nov 17, 2024 8:06am Nov 17, 2024 8:06am
Quoting benjam1n
{quote} Thanks a lot for this Rick, very helpful! Do those red horizontal lines on the BTC chart suggest that after a squeeze you also wait for price to break obvious s/r too? Thank!
Hi Benjam1n

Those are PA breakout zones confirmed by RED DOTS on the Squeeze indicator. It's best to wait for a break and jump on for the ride. If price returns back to the 21EMA - better exit for a small LOSS.
The odds are close to 80% that price will follow current trend.

In case you didn't read an earlier post from me about a few weeks back , here is a very quick summary.
When we get a Squeeze of the Bollinger Bands, it encourages traders to start placing Orders above and below this area. So thousands of Limit orders hit the charts which are normally traders hoping for moves against the trend. Therefore there is normally 3 times the Limit Selling orders above price on a BULLISH trend.

The HFT Algo's are programmed to attack Bid / ask imbalance so will attack the Sellers in this example- pushing price upwards.
BTCUSD seems to follow normal Liquidity rules - in fact its much cleared and extremely more profitable than most markets.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,354
  • Nov 17, 2024 10:42am Nov 17, 2024 10:42am
Quoting RickM
{quote} When we get a Squeeze of the Bollinger Bands, it encourages traders to start placing Orders above and below this area. So thousands of Limit orders hit the charts which are normally traders hoping for moves against the trend. Therefore there is normally 3 times the Limit Selling orders above price on a BULLISH trend. The HFT Algo's are programmed to attack Bid / ask imbalance so will attack the Sellers in this example- pushing price upwards. BTCUSD seems to follow normal Liquidity rules - in fact its much cleared and extremely more profitable...
Hi Rick,
I've seen you post something similar to this before and I have experimented with using order imbalances as a leading indicator (with a ninjatrader indicator I made), but I've not really found any use for it as of yet besides using large resting limit orders as a target for an existing position.

It feels like if you use a small amount of ticks then in an uptrend you do see more orders above price, but it feels like this is moving with price as it clears out levels behind it rather than prior to the move.

If you use a larger amount of ticks (say 20) then it's very choppy even on 3sec charts so hard to make much sense of it.
Of course it's possible that I've programmed it differently from similar indicators on other platforms.

So I'm wondering on ES how many ticks above/below you'd be looking at and would you be looking for this specifically in a squeeze to try and predict the direction of the breakout (or confirm existing direction)?

Included is a pic of ES on friday, starts squeezing at 10:18 on the 1 min chart (according to the bollinger bands) and breaks out in the direction of the recent trend, but on the 3 sec chart looking for imbalances prior to the breakout I can't see anything here. I do see the big order placed at 5906 which seems to have been a draw on price, but in terms of the total number of bids vs offers it doesn't seem that different?

MarketDepthImbalance is the first indi (20 ticks above + 20 ticks below), second is delta, third is just candle size as a histogram.
The resting orders are also drawn on the chart with OrderFlowMarketDepthMap (built in NinjaTrader indi).

Any ideas would be appreciated, thanks.
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NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,355
  • Edited 10:19pm Nov 17, 2024 10:04pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting backtested.
{quote} Hi Rick, I've seen you post something similar to this before and I have experimented with using order imbalances as a leading indicator (with a ninjatrader indicator I made), but I've not really found any use for it as of yet besides using large resting limit orders as a target for an existing position. It feels like if you use a small amount of ticks then in an uptrend you do see more orders above price, but it feels like this is moving with price as it clears out levels behind it rather than prior to the move. If you use a larger amount...
Hi backtested

I have never been able to work liquidity imbalance very well off bar chart indicators like you have on your chart either.
Thats because they add Asks whilst pulling Asks micro seconds before execution so the numbers can’t be seen on chart depth indicators very well until.
Where I do see it occur is on a DOM directly where I am watching the total bids and asks for only the next 5 levels and following the bias of pulling & stacking of orders at each level.
What I see and it took me a year of practice just watching a DOM with 1 Tick chart on the Jigsaw Platform is on bullish moves, they stack Asks above price whilst pulling Asks at the execution. If you could count the Asks above price plus add the ones they are pulling, it amounts to amount 3x over bids.
Where you can see it in real time is by using Delta speed gauges. I find the relationship between additional Asks (bullish moves) from pulling and stacking can be seen in a increase in Delta (goes over 1000 during New York Session) and a doubling of Market order execution orders at the same time.
Therefore the easy solution is just follow the Delta breakouts with volume knowing the Bid / Ask imbalance is high.

After trading for two years only on a DOM, I can tell you it’s a horrible way to make money due to Stress, migraines and emotional breakdowns to your self and something your family will have to put up with. Data changes on ES about 10-30 times a second on a DOM so it’s one fuckin headache regardless of profitability.
Thats on ES, bonds is easilier.

What I am saying is the Algorithm’s pulling & stacking of orders is too fast for the human mind to grasp on ES,
So trade towards big orders on a DOM whilst the Delta is strong.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,356
  • Nov 18, 2024 5:02am Nov 18, 2024 5:02am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Benjam1n I would always wait till candle close because big candles often reverse back to the previous mid point due to liquidity imbalances. If I trade on M1, I normally take reversals for a few Ticks on big candles if the Delta is huge during the London session. That's a 85% win rate right there without any other rules. For traders learning the Bollinger Band squeeze - stick to M5 This was my chart from Friday Night and I was trading on a laptop from Lightning Ridge, a small mining town in the middle of the Queensland desert about 660...
Hi Rick,
I'm trying to study your chart/method , here's my concerns thank you
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  • #6,357
  • Nov 18, 2024 5:31am Nov 18, 2024 5:31am
Ok so following Rick's advices since I'm (trying) to trade only on forex , I've setup these sell pending orders :

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  • #6,358
  • Nov 18, 2024 6:43am Nov 18, 2024 6:43am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Benjam1n I would always wait till candle close because big candles often reverse back to the previous mid point due to liquidity imbalances. If I trade on M1, I normally take reversals for a few Ticks on big candles if the Delta is huge during the London session. That's a 85% win rate right there without any other rules. For traders learning the Bollinger Band squeeze - stick to M5 This was my chart from Friday Night and I was trading on a laptop from Lightning Ridge, a small mining town in the middle of the Queensland desert about 660...
@RickM
Guess the break out on this green candle is a loss as price reversed immediately to the downside
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  • #6,359
  • Nov 18, 2024 6:48am Nov 18, 2024 6:48am
Quoting skyline
Ok so following Rick's advices since I'm (trying) to trade only on forex , I've setup these sell pending orders : {image} {image} {image}
What confirmation do you have for price to going south hence placing pending sell?
  • #6,360
  • Nov 18, 2024 7:16am Nov 18, 2024 7:16am
Quoting skyline
{quote} Hi Rick, I'm trying to study your chart/method , here's my concerns thank you {image}
Hi Skyline

Yellow circle didn't break the 21 EMA so no exit. Importantly it shows a level which needs to hold.
Green Circle is where I exited but it was a mistake. I should have stayed in unless it broken that previous level.
The correct exit should have been that line because of the strong candle over the 21 EMA contained strong Bullish imbalance. Also what I didn't show (sorry) is price had returned to a strong Volume node on the Volume profile which sits on my DOM. Basically the game was likely over.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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