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Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

  • #6,361
  • Nov 18, 2024 7:21am Nov 18, 2024 7:21am
Quoting Merka
{quote} @RickM Guess the break out on this green candle is a loss as price reversed immediately to the downside {image}
Hi Merka

The answer is yes - a small loss if trading off that chart.

However I didn't take that trade mainly because it was before the London Open and the volume was crap. I want a higher volume (high tick value would probably work) that LO brings before I look for a trade.
Nothing wrong with taking small losses, provide we stay in long on winners
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,362
  • Nov 18, 2024 7:31am Nov 18, 2024 7:31am
Quoting skyline
Ok so following Rick's advices since I'm (trying) to trade only on forex , I've setup these sell pending orders : {image} {image} {image}
I am already Short on AUDUSD & GBPUSD - in profit at present but let's see if the setup works later.

Also Long on USDCAD which I like better - but its Monday and I hate trading Monday's to be honest till NYO.
Last year I when through my trading records for the last 10 years and noticed 75% of my losing days are MONDAYS.

Therefore if I was smart, I wouldn't trade till Tuesday, something I believe Rocky does.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,363
  • Nov 18, 2024 9:20am Nov 18, 2024 9:20am
ok thx !
  • #6,364
  • Nov 18, 2024 9:41am Nov 18, 2024 9:41am
Quoting Merka
{quote} What confirmation do you have for price to going south hence placing pending sell?
I have no confirmation , hope price just break on the short side

Anyway the pending order was triggered on AUDUSD, luckily I forgot to move the money to this trading account, so I had no loss lol
  • #6,365
  • Edited 4:57pm Nov 18, 2024 3:17pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting skyline
{quote} I have no confirmation , hope price just break on the short side Anyway the pending order was triggered on AUDUSD, luckily I forgot to move the money to this trading account, so I had no loss lol
Indicators are a total BS, each trader interprets them in his own way, whatever make the trader feel good about the losses or rare wins. One can find hundreds of excuses why this or that did not work out. Blah Blah Blah...(mostly)

Laughable conversations about indicators for entry. Same crap about indicators for entries year in year out. Still 5% of traders will ever make it into the profits.

Why am I here? Trading is my business and a greatest hobby, I suppose I am reliving my struggles and tribulations and hoping that at least one or two lurkers will understand my message.

Entries are easy, flip a coin, MM and Mindfuck is what makes a great trader.
  • #6,366
  • Nov 18, 2024 4:40pm Nov 18, 2024 4:40pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Indicators is a total BS, each trader interprets them in his own way, whatever make the trader feel good about the losses or rare wins. One can find hundreds of excuses why this or that did not work out. Blah Blah Blah...(mostly) Laughable conversations about indicators for entry. Same crap about indicators for entries year in year out. Still 5% of traders will ever make it into the profits. Why am I here? Trading is my business and a greatest hobby, I suppose I am reliving my struggles and tribulations and hoping that at least one or two...
Hi Driven

Yes entry’s can become a flip of a coin - however over 100 tosses when trading on good Squeeze breakouts, you come out far ahead because your really trading against the 95% of traders that are losing money.
You are trading against their limit orders.

The wins come from the EXIT of course, and good entry’s mean little if you keep taking small bloody profits.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,367
  • Nov 18, 2024 5:00pm Nov 18, 2024 5:00pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Driven Yes entry’s can become a flip of a coin - however over 100 tosses when trading on good Squeeze breakouts, you come out far ahead because your really trading against the 95% of traders that are losing money. You are trading against their limit orders. The wins come from the EXIT of course, and good entry’s mean little if you keep taking small bloody profits.
(In Bold) If you would not be a RickM, I would of had a very gentle but sarcastic laugh about statement in bold...however, you are RickM, one of the very few who actually survived in this great business we call trading. So still a laugh, but not sarcastic.
  • #6,368
  • Edited 6:07pm Nov 18, 2024 5:40pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} (In Bold) If you would not be a RickM, I would of had a very gentle but sarcastic laugh about statement in bold...however, you are RickM, one of the very few who actually survived in this great business we call trading. So still a laugh, but not sarcastic.
Can I tell you why it really works - and I will tell you about a strategy I trade happily that makes money every month.

My strategy number 4 (one of my old Algo strategies and MA’s not important)

I need to have a minimum of 7 positions opened at once across uncorrelated markets.
Take the bar cross trade of the 21 / 89 EMA near LO or NYO and exit is the cross back over the 89 EMA.
Strong moves I add about every 2ATR.

Of the seven, about 2 will lose quickly, 3 make come in with BO or small loss and 2 will win. One of them will probably be a 300-400 tick winner (due to adding) or more covering the cost of the whole strategy plus allowing a profit for my time.
I have no idea which trade is likely to be the big winner, but statistically one will normally pay me very will indeed.

My point is - No one can know which trade will run hard so we need to take many positions on setups when they are offered to us and let them run WITHOUT us taking small profits and fucking our accounts up.

Your point about entry’s is valid, but statistically 1 out of 7 will run hard for a week.
Which one?

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,369
  • Edited 6:05pm Nov 18, 2024 5:51pm | Edited 6:05pm
Quoting Protohyper
Im affraid pure mechanical systems based on simple indicators do not work anymore or sometimes work sometimes not = random
I'll give you all one guess as to who our mult-inick troll is. If you have any pattern recognition skills whatsoever it should be obvious.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,370
  • Edited 8:13pm Nov 18, 2024 6:49pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Can I tell you why it really works - and I will tell you about a strategy I trade happily that makes money every month. My strategy number 4 (one of my old Algo strategies and MA’s not important) I need to have a minimum of 7 positions opened at once across uncorrelated markets. Take the bar cross trade of the 21 / 89 EMA near LO or NYO and exit is the cross back over the 89 EMA. Strong moves I add about every 2ATR. Of the seven, about 2 will lose quickly, 3 make come in with BO or small loss and 2 will win. One of them will probably be...
That is funny, it reminds me of the strategy I trade strictly on Forex......I wait for Breakout of a particular PA action(s) on the higher Time Frame for the 8 main currency pairs, so sort of similar to yours ...2-3 out of 8 is about right. I go with the full position per each pair, across all pairs, as add ons statistically do not work for me.

I use no indicators for entry but skillfully manage the trade to TP, usually in total 6-8% in profit on winning trades, against about 1.5 - 2.5% total losses on stop out pairs. Rinse and Repeat after TP or Trailing hit, usually in 2-3-4 days .
  • #6,371
  • Nov 19, 2024 1:34am Nov 19, 2024 1:34am
Quoting driven18
{quote} That is funny, it reminds me of the strategy I trade strictly on Forex......I wait for Breakout of a particular PA action(s) on the higher Time Frame for the 8 main currency pairs, so sort of similar to yours ...2-3 out of 8 is about right. I go with the full position per each pair, across all pairs, as add ons statistically do not work for me. I use no indicators for entry but skillfully manage the trade to TP, usually in total 6-8% in profit on winning trades, against about 1.5 - 2.5% total losses on stop out pairs. Rinse and Repeat after...
FLAT EARTH TRADING SOCIETY

Robb Reinhold has just finished a years trading exercise back in July where he was looking to take 100 Random trades on the Stock Market to prove LUCK is better than skill on entering trades.
He used a simple 13 MA on the Daily Charts and picked random stock without looking provided the stocks slope on the 13MA was decent.
His theory was 40% would lose, 58% would Break Even or have a small win / Loss BUT 2% would be huge winners.
In his test, he only had one huge winner which was a Green Energy Stock BUT this one trade made the whole strategy reasonably profitable.

He believes that there is NO Skill in Entry but ONLY skill in Exit.

Kind of have to agree.

PS. Please goggle Robb to see the full details of this test.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,372
  • Nov 19, 2024 1:50am Nov 19, 2024 1:50am
Quoting RickM
{quote} FLAT EARTH TRADING SOCIETY Robb Reinhold has just finished a years trading exercise back in July where he was looking to take 100 Random trades on the Stock Market to prove LUCK is better than skill on entering trades. He used a simple 13 MA on the Daily Charts and picked random stock without looking provided the stocks slope on the 13MA was decent. His theory was 40% would lose, 58% would Break Even or have a small win / Loss BUT 2% would be huge winners. In his test, he only had one huge winner which was a Green Energy Stock BUT this one...
Yes. Interesting interview with him on a trade related podcast where they discuss this and other trade related matters.
  • #6,373
  • Nov 19, 2024 2:29am Nov 19, 2024 2:29am
Quoting RickM
{quote} FLAT EARTH TRADING SOCIETY Robb Reinhold has just finished a years trading exercise back in July where he was looking to take 100 Random trades on the Stock Market to prove LUCK is better than skill on entering trades. He used a simple 13 MA on the Daily Charts and picked random stock without looking provided the stocks slope on the 13MA was decent. His theory was 40% would lose, 58% would Break Even or have a small win / Loss BUT 2% would be huge winners. In his test, he only had one huge winner which was a Green Energy Stock BUT this one...
This kind of approach reminds me very much of two other old threads that are based on just the same old principle of cutting losses early and letting profits run.
I refer specifically to:

- Pipeasy's thread 'Building an equity millipede' (link)

- Peter Crowns' (and Joel Rensnick's) DIBS method thread on trading inside bar hourly (link)

Of course I have studied both of them and tried to apply those trading principles but without too much success.

It is psychologically very difficult to keep it together when you have trades that always or almost always close at a loss or at most at breakeven, and it is even more difficult if you don't have decent starting capital that you can use so as not to go too far over leveraged.

This is probably what separates a winning trader from a losing one (as I am lol)
  • #6,374
  • Edited 8:48am Nov 19, 2024 6:31am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting skyline
{quote} This kind of approach reminds me very much of two other old threads that are based on just the same old principle of cutting losses early and letting profits run. I refer specifically to: - Pipeasy's thread 'Building an equity millipede' (link) - Peter Crowns' (and Joel Rensnick's) DIBS method thread on trading inside bar hourly (link) Of course I have studied...
As soon as you realize, that 95% of the traders loose because they only concentrate on 10% of the whole trading business - Entry, which I give only 10% of importance and not on Exit (MM and Mindfuck), you will become a better trader.
  • #6,375
  • Edited 7:07am Nov 19, 2024 6:36am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting RickM
{quote} FLAT EARTH TRADING SOCIETY Robb Reinhold has just finished a years trading exercise back in July where he was looking to take 100 Random trades on the Stock Market to prove LUCK is better than skill on entering trades. He used a simple 13 MA on the Daily Charts and picked random stock without looking provided the stocks slope on the 13MA was decent. His theory was 40% would lose, 58% would Break Even or have a small win / Loss BUT 2% would be huge winners. In his test, he only had one huge winner which was a Green Energy Stock BUT this one...
RickM, thanks for the Robb Reinhold video(just seen it)

Yes,

NO Skill in Entry but ONLY skill in EXIT(MM + MindFuck).

That is what I preach!

Here is my personal observations and assigned percentages of the importance in the trading business and years I spent working on it:

10% Entry - (spend 3 years on it)- not profitable
40% MM - (spend next 4 years on it) - not making enough, breaking even but starting to see the light
50% MindFuck (Fear and Greed)- (spend all together 7 years taming these feelings)

10 years as I am full time in this business, last 3 years live, covered previous years losses and very profitable.
  • #6,376
  • Nov 19, 2024 6:43am Nov 19, 2024 6:43am
This looks like a nice simple strategy and I really like your move of ignoring Monday's and Friday's as I do similar.
Try adding the Braid filter to the Williams, you will increase your strike rate by avoiding those spikes and low liquidity.
  • #6,377
  • Nov 19, 2024 8:09am Nov 19, 2024 8:09am
A nice trade today on ES, but unfortunately I was out and missed the second better move.

You can still master entry's on the Squeeze and be very profitable - lets not get too far away from Rocky's ideas.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #6,378
  • Edited 10:24am Nov 19, 2024 9:40am | Edited 10:24am
5 Min Dow Futures TF.

Here is where the MindFuck(Fear/Greed) begins..but have to withstand it and wait for TP using proper MM.

Result matters, but not really. Sound System, Sound MM, Sound MindFrame. Statistically - over 100's of trades, it is a Winner!
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  • #6,379
  • Edited 11:56am Nov 19, 2024 9:54am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting driven18
5 Min Dow Futures TF. Here is where the MindFuck(Fear/Greed) begins..but have to withstand it and wait for TP using proper MM. Result matters, but not really. Sound System, Sound MM, Sound MindFrame. Statistically - over 100's of trades, it is a Winner! {image}
lol, I'm targeting another 150.
aiming for 20700 on NAS as well.
  • #6,380
  • Nov 19, 2024 10:20am Nov 19, 2024 10:20am
Quoting driven18
5 Min Dow Futures TF. Here is where the MindFuck(Fear/Greed) begins..but have to withstand it and wait for TP using proper MM. Result matters, but not really. Sound System, Sound MM, Sound MindFrame. Statistically - over 100's of trades, it is a Winner! {image}
And here it is, TP = 150 pips, Daily Profit Target Reached. After hard work, it is time time for the Gym and then relaxation.
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