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Flying Dutchman

Quoting TimeTells
Quotes So, BoJ on holidays (again ???, ffs lol ) What does that mean to the Yen pair markets today Well who knows
It is Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day and it is a holiday for the Federal Reserve. I'm not trading any of the currency futres today and instead I will focus on the US index futures, NQ for the Tech100 and YM for the Dow30.

NQ had a nice rally from the London open and is now ranging back and forth across last week's high.

YM ranged from its open last night, tried to rally wqith the NQ but failed to reach its high from last week and is now trading below today's open and last week's close.

So a mixed market for now. I did a few NQ scalps but will wait now for the NYSE to open at 9:30 AM NY time.

Good trading to all and good luck for the week.
My objective is to learn the skill of flawless execution of my trading plan
Quoting vidvad
{quote} It is Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day and it is a holiday for the Federal Reserve. I'm not trading any of the currency futres today and instead I will focus on the US index futures, NQ for the Tech100 and YM for the Dow30. NQ had a nice rally from the London open and is now ranging back and forth across last week's high. YM ranged from its open last night, tried to rally wqith the NQ but failed to reach its high from last week and is now trading below today's open and last week's close. So a mixed market for now. I did a few NQ scalps...
i will be looking for the Opening Range after 9;30 NYSE..
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Yes, a decent day & week here also Dave, and well done sir. Really no reason all traders cannot do well also, as the market does its same thing over & over. The only variable then becomes OURSELVES The market is a repetitive cycle, and once we grasp it we cannot not see it again. ----- GJ Yesterday was just another day of the stepping stones, moving from one trader attractor to the next, Seeking & finding its new liquidity I would imagine, as the market stops (and then rests, lol) in between these stations, as we can see Maybe to aggregate...
Good evening all,

Another superb post by Timetells. All about targets. Its all there infront of us. As traders we need to know which way its gona go...lol. I am still learning each day and trying to grasp what Timetells is showing us. Trade Well All.

Regards
Quoting whitesta
{quote}
As traders we need to know which way its gona go...lol.
I am still learning each day and trying to grasp what Timetells is showing us. Trade Well All. Regards

Hi W, cheers pal

-----

Hahaa, yes,
Direction
The eternal (infernal) trader's dilemma.

Trader attractors we can know, yes,
ie where liquidity may increase through 'new' orders entering (or momentarily decrease through S/L or TP)

The "where & when" ... is the dilemma
(ie price & time)

Yesterday I got out with +45½p (net of comms) and I was satisified with the trading day.
WHILE
When looking at the GJ review chart below some might think I was always (& always lol) correct & trading in the current flow direction
WHEN AND AS it was changing or happening
but NO I wasn't, and each day is a new challenge
(where I believe overall success trades can be achieved)

So initially, direction can be less ??? important (just initially) in my mind but not ultimately, of course.
Why do I (we) choose (ie have) a bias of direction
Indicators, Maths, Observations, Past Patterns etc etc ( ie our belief systems)
Everyone will have a (their) reason
Yet the larger market don't care for our reason
Imho we need to ultimately tap into THEIR reason

And if we are initially wrong we will need to be able to work out of it (trade management)
or GET out of it
That's the only two options available to us (I think lol) so we better have trained ourselves very well to action our options ... AS the market is moving

And I still believe in my heart from my own experiences that the best way to achieve all that TRAINING
Is on a trading Simulator
Where the candles are actually "moving" and showing us their delta changes and price direction changes by our chosen timeframe.

and then NOT to do this training
on a grass growing live chart which is too slow to grasp the immensity of the (very) big picture
OR even
on a past review closed chart (like I post lol) where the candles are just sitting there closed and .... STATIC
which dowan't allow us to see the real live flow of the market

Each to their own training plan or method of course and I wish good fortunes to all

Trade safe (first, imo), then trade well


for what its worth
how can we know where its going next, when it flips around lol
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Quoting TimeTells
{quote} for what its worth how can we know where its going next, when it flips around lol {image}
That's what Higher TF analysis is for, to see where it's really heading, the up/down movements are Accumulation/ Distribution events
which we can then nip inside of, on Lower TF's

GJ made almost equal Highs yesterday to Mondays trading & just pipped above ( "spring" ) from which price then proceeded to drop.
Going into today, Tokyo nicely dragged price back up to match Fridays High before plummeting to Fridays Low.
Lower Lows, Lower Highs is the clue.

Zooming out to bigger picture often helps. On the daily, price coming into major resistance.
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
Okay, my day is over
(Andy, I snuck back in for just one more lol, was thrown in too easily lol)

I'm hitting the sack now, bedtime.

Any GJ players could be in for a treat (or NOT, who knows)
New York is open, 2½hrs till London closes, good fortunes all.
Market is in a PRIME near perfect balance point, enjoy (though probably just randomly occured )

.
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  • Post #10,787
  • Quote
  • Edited Oct 17, 2024 1:32am Oct 16, 2024 10:42am | Edited Oct 17, 2024 1:32am
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Quoting TimeTells
Market is in a PRIME near perfect balance point, enjoy (though probably just randomly occured )

And so the day, on GJ, ended

And a new one about to begin
All the best to all


.
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Quoting TimeTells
Okay, my day is over (Andy, I snuck back in for just one more lol, was thrown in too easily lol) I'm hitting the sack now, bedtime. Any GJ players could be in for a treat (or NOT, who knows) New York is open, 2½hrs till London closes, good fortunes all. Market is in a PRIME near perfect balance point, enjoy (though probably just randomly occured ) . {image}
Excellent day yesterday Pete, great trading.
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Excellent day yesterday Pete, great trading.

Thx pal
No charts today from me
They (my charts) all look the same to me, imo anyway, in that they fall inside a blanket phrase Market Mechanics.
Which is an all encompassing mechanics (and likened in my mind in a way to the original Wyckoff Cycle)

I always enjoy seeing other trader’s charts though, helps me understand their views

That W cycle by the way, imho is not just restricted to a stock trading function of the original author,
And an author who also called the operation of the mechanics as
being similar to us thinking of it in terms of a Composite Man
(ie a repeating mass market psychology activity from low to high and back to low with an interim behaviour)
So the W-Cycle which is in graphics and with no price or time AXIS form is not meant in my mind to be just superimposed across a chart
It's a holistic cycle viewpoint imo

Now (again just imo) whether we use Fibs, Pivots, Round Numbers, Indis, general or specific Maths etc etc etc etc etc
All the end results & our personal understandings of market behaviour
‘might ultimately fit inside the largest of any Market Mechanics Cycle.
(ie the individual parts make up the whole)

I don’t myself use many industry narrative words such as accumulations/distributions etc as they have no personal meaning to me is all (an ex horse player ),
so
I will invent my own words LOL & use them and others I see from other traders I watch, words like
Zeppelins, Bermuda Triangles, Inflection, Fakes’N’Flips, Aggregations etc etc
that DO have some personal meaning to me is all.

My narrative words are not better (or worse) than industry used or other word narratives,
Just they suit ME better when looking at a chart hahaa

All that lol sorry, just to say I will always happily watch others’ charts,
While I would still, always & only, have my own charts on my computer as my base reference.

So ffs,
this all now brings my thinking around to

gambling vs trading
(slow morning of just patient waiting so far, you might tell, so why not hahaa)
okay, why not, still just watching the charts, patiently waiting

Gambling vs Trading

Now I’ve never met any group anywhere like us traders,
who seem to hate being associated with the word Gambling lol
Seems a psychological trigger I reckon.

Well I looked to find some original idea/meaning of the word - Trading
Best I can find is that it was a form of barter where BOTH parties engaged in it because
they BOTH felt they had some sort of advantage at the time (either financially or socially etc etc)

What about Gambling.
Well strictly speaking, I reckon, it is merely just
Speculation on the UNKNOWN (at the time) outcome of an event.
(Sort of like trading currencies in a way, )

But we can also subdivide gambling into other aspects such as

Blind Gambling (just pure chance)
Probabilistic Gambling (using maths, or long term observations etc, or BOTH)
and of course, the bane of the word
Problem Gambling

So probabilistic gamblers would likely make up the majority (that I can see) of us Traders.
But either way
Each who enter into a trade (gamble) fully expect, going in, that they have the advantage at the time of turning a profit (else why do it)

All this when easily understood may help those, whose families/friends etc tell them we are just gambling
(ie a singularity of meaning) and stops us from cringing at hearing the G-word.


But where does this lead anyone
(here we go lol)

Well those who have heard of Doc Sartin, may have heard of his (anecdotal, from my studies of the Doc)
famous plan to assist Problem Gamblers who were facing incarceration for just social misdemeanours, and therefore with no chance of rehabilitation.
To giving them a plan, with rehabilitation.

When The Doc explained to the Judge that these ‘problem’ folk should hopefully be given some chance of rehabilitation, he postulated to the Judge two things.
He asked the judge who & what exactly were problem gamblers
And he asked the judge if he had ever heard of a long term WINNING gambler, ie over & over, as ever being labelled as having a "problem".

He then suggested to the judge the best way to reform a problem (and therefore a losing) gambler was.
TO TURN THEM INTO A WINNER.

A winner, that was his solution and the judge (anecdotally again) agreed,
and gave the Doc a chance to rehabilitate the losers into WINNERS
Which became the original Dr Sartin Pace & Cap Methodology (USA based) where to this day there is a continuation of his “paid for” method which still exists.

I am NOT here (please, lol) to recommend anyone buying or using this at all, its just part of the story is all, conceptually
In my mind all simplistic methods (gambling or trading) at their base have a 50/50 likelihood of outcome.

It is then (imo) just the trader THEMSELVES who eventually turns the corner
& turns themselves into a consistent winner (whatever method/system/view) they use

Sorry for the length, was just a little interlude of food for thought this morning lol in between my gamb oops trading

Find yourselves a way. and then win at this game, is the simple message

All the best to all
Trade safe, (then) trade well
Quoting vidvad
Here is my current Japanese Yen Futures chart. Keep in mind that if you trader forex, the Yen futures will print data inversely to the USDJOY. This is because Yen futures are for Yen priced in US dollars, while USDJPY is US Dollars priced in Yen. End of London timing window finished with an "M" reversal with engulfment for a short entry as price failed to hold above last week's low. I got to the party late and I did take a small scalp short which is now closed and I will not trade until at least a couple of minutes after the 8:30 AM NYC time release...
hi vidvad

what charting platform is this?
Quoting TimeTells
okay, why not, still just watching the charts, patiently waiting Gambling vs Trading
Should we all be wearing these hats ?

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The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Should we all be wearing these hats ? {image}

Hahaa,

Well I like what's under the brim
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaa, Well I like what's under the brim
You're definitely a Gambler then .............

Be Careful.
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Should we all be wearing these hats ? {image}
It depends on the assets that you like to protect below the hat.

Mine...

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
Quoting fxpider
{quote} It depends on the assets that you like to protect below the hat. Mine... {image}
As Chief Brody from Jaws says: "You're going to need a bigger boat , excuse me Hat. "

The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} As Chief Brody from Jaws says: "You're going to need a bigger boat , excuse me Hat. "
I'm still deciding between a smaller me and a bigger hat.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
Hi folks,

Will be the last of my end of day Review charts for a while I reckon.
(I know I know, you’ve heard this all before )
As I see the same thing just repeating day after day, which can get boring for others I understand.

All I do is with patience, as best I can hahaaa, is wait for the market currently to get itself out of position.
Then I look for a confluence of any of the standard industry observed trader attractor lines/zones, and then

WAIT AGAIN to see how the market will respond there
ie is the load now favouring buy or sell, and maybe after the mandatory these days ? lol Fake’N’Flips that can entice traders into the wrong direction.
This could only print via a larger group of traders/groups/institutions etc rather than anything we might bring to the table as retail traders.
(I do also miss pips by not jumping the gun early, but hey, it is what it is)

It all looks Wyckoff to me (and george also, cheers pal), end of my story.
The accumulations/distributions at tops or bottoms I just call Aggregations ... (ie waiting for the buy/sell balance to shift).
I can then see the Wyckoff Springs (I might call ‘em fake’n’flips as I reckon that’s just what their purpose is)
I then see the wyckoff markups ie price going up, and alternatively going down, I call them expansions.
Then I see wyckoff Pullbacks, either profit taking TP or S/L action maybe, allowing trade re-entries if desired.

And so it goes on day after day with the session opens of great interest (ie liquidity boosts) as the set ups form.
No ONE way to do all this, or one way which is BEST imo.
Stick to your own winning ways folks and don’t be swayed, as any glitch in proceedings might momentarily just be YOURSELF and NOT the market
(if you know what I mean)


I called this chart just Daily Repeats
Trade safe, trade well all


.
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Darryl