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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #761
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:23am Jul 20, 2007 11:23am
Quoting dove_alliance
One thing I never do is be analysistic on how this market moves.... I use the tick bar and at the 122.08, I seen it coming for the short.... at the 121.81 my indicator said it was hard and I stayed with it..... 100 pip profit.......
So far 120 pips and counting for me.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #762
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:30am Jul 20, 2007 11:30am
Quoting DutchTrader
Good chart, and solid analysis. We will see what Sunday night brings, eh? FWIW I'm long from 120.90
Good luck with the trade. FWIW, I'm surprised by the weakness in CAD and AUD today despite the dollar selling. They're both retreating off their highs. In fact, USD/CAD has already brushed off the subprime news without hitting a new low. If this is a sign of a short-term dollar bottom, there are going to be some great buying opportunities. Too soon to tell though.
  • #763
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:31am Jul 20, 2007 11:31am
Quoting Trader KGB
Good luck with the trade. FWIW, I'm surprised by the weakness in CAD and AUD today despite the dollar selling. They're both retreating off their highs. In fact, USD/CAD has already brushed off the subprime news without hitting a new low. If this is a sign of a short-term dollar bottom, there are going to be some great buying opportunities. Too soon to tell though.
I smell a big move TraderKGB. Sometimes you have to go with your guts.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #764
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:37am Jul 20, 2007 11:37am
Quoting DutchTrader
I smell a big move TraderKGB. Sometimes you have to go with your guts.
I prefer fundatechnical trades vs gut trades. My gut trades usually end up in the gutter. Though my gut was right on USD/CAD.. 1.0485, +45 since last post. Oh well
  • #765
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:39am Jul 20, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Trader KGB
I prefer fundatechnical trades vs gut trades. My gut trades usually end up in the gutter. Though my gut was right on USD/CAD.. 1.0485, +45 since last post. Oh well
:lol good one, my gut trades usually end up good and when I don't trust my gut I end up in the gutter.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #766
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:51am Jul 20, 2007 11:51am
Hi KGB-Trader... and above March trendline would means somewhere above 121.18..?? Just to confirm...thanks

Quoting Trader KGB
Just like to throw my TA into the mix too, and suggest to any on the sidelines to hold off on USD/JPY longs until we see some stability. Right now, USD/JPY is positioned in a strong bearish stance. It's trading below the 50-day SMA, the March trendline was shattered, and the MACD recently had a bearish zero-line cross on the daily chart.

On the fundamental side, a flight to quality in the bond market and an equity market selloff (esp. in speculative issues, Russell 2k off 2.3%) will drive a continued sell-off of both the USD and yen carry trades. Today is very reminiscent of the late February correction. I would wait for the fundamental landscape to clear up and for USD/JPY to retake its March trendline before considering long trades here.
  • #767
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:08pm Jul 20, 2007 12:08pm
I think that i found the explanation for this. Japan sucking all yens from market to pay oil to Iran lol
  • #768
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:15pm Jul 20, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting comfy
Hi KGB-Trader... and above March trendline would means somewhere above 121.18..?? Just to confirm...thanks
Not exactly, the trendline today sits at 122.01. That particular line happened to be well observed and tested since March. But take it fwiw, trendlines are hardly of utmost importance.
  • #769
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:35pm Jul 20, 2007 12:35pm
exited my usd/jpy long with +23 pips. Overall 103 pips, 80 on the downside, 23 on the upside. Flat now waiting to see what Sunday brings.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #770
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:00pm Jul 20, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting Forexpupil
I think that i found the explanation for this. Japan sucking all yens from market to pay oil to Iran lol
It's usd/yen is making a 61.8% Fib retracement or what do you think?
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  • #771
  • Edited 2:13pm Jul 20, 2007 2:02pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting maarf01
It's usd/yen is making a 61.8% Fib retracement or what do you think?
Hi Marf01!

Oh sorry! I think that 61,8 retracement is at 118,66 and 50% at 119,62. May be my drawing is wrong. Iīm going to see better. I draw on opposite of you 100 where you have 0.

But when there are so many search for a currency the price doesnīt go up? And Iran didnīt say that want to receive oil in yen and not in dollars? Donīt you think that is possible?

I Know that there are corrections, but today was all the pairs of yen, and so agressive. I think that there are something more than simple corrections. Itīs my thought, like subprimes and so on.
  • #772
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:29pm Jul 20, 2007 3:29pm

I will stay with my long at 121.10. TP is 122.40.

R.Ozkan 1984 İzmir-Turkiye
  • #773
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:18pm Jul 20, 2007 9:18pm
Hi DutchTrader Sir ... congrats, please let us know if you long again / or smell rats?...my long position still open at 120.98.... hope it is oK

Quoting DutchTrader
exited my usd/jpy long with +23 pips. Overall 103 pips, 80 on the downside, 23 on the upside. Flat now waiting to see what Sunday brings.
  • #774
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:14pm Jul 20, 2007 10:14pm
Quoting comfy
Hi DutchTrader Sir ... congrats, please let us know if you long again / or smell rats?...my long position still open at 120.98.... hope it is oK
LOL@smell rats. I'm actually flat just waiting to see what happens on Sunday and to see what sort of other subprime stuff pops up if any.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #775
  • Jul 21, 2007 5:09am Jul 21, 2007 5:09am
Quoting dove_alliance
One thing I never do is be analysistic on how this market moves.... I use the tick bar and at the 122.08, I seen it coming for the short.... at the 121.81 my indicator said it was hard and I stayed with it..... 100 pip profit.......

Hi Dove

Can you post your chart here please?

Thanks
  • #776
  • Jul 21, 2007 10:22pm Jul 21, 2007 10:22pm
USDJPY broke below 120.96 previous low, further fall towards 120.00 area to reach the next cycle bottom on daily chart is still possible in the next several days. Near term resistance is at 122.60, only break above this level will signal the resumption of the up trend. For long term analysis, USDJPY is in correction to the long term bullish movement. Rise towards 128.00 level to reach the next cycle top on weekly chart is expected.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #777
  • Jul 22, 2007 3:50pm Jul 22, 2007 3:50pm
my chart shows USDJPY shooted to 122.20 one hour ago and now retreated back to 121.50/60 range. Anyone knows what happend?

Thx.
  • #778
  • Jul 22, 2007 3:54pm Jul 22, 2007 3:54pm
USD is still stronger than JPY i guess
  • #779
  • Jul 22, 2007 4:07pm Jul 22, 2007 4:07pm
saturday night (last night)
all pairs including the yen jump
usd/jpy 121.12 to 125.35
Lokk for the high for last night
http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
  • #780
  • Jul 22, 2007 4:28pm Jul 22, 2007 4:28pm
usd low again???


Dollar drops on subprime fears

Monday, July 23, 2007

The US dollar dropped last week to a record low versus the euro and the weakest in 26 years versus sterling on speculation losses from subprime mortgages will worsen the US economic outlook.

The US currency fell a sixth straight week against the euro and pound, while tumbling to a 22-year low versus the New Zealand dollar and the weakest in 18 years against the Australian dollar. The dollar may extend its drop this week as US reports may show declining sales of existing and new homes.
"The outlook for the dollar is still bearish," said Robert Robis, an international fixed-income portfolio manager in New York at OppenheimerFunds.
"There are still significant concerns that the subprime debacle will lead to more serious problems in the financial markets." The dollar fell 0.3 percent last week to US$1.3827 per euro, 1.1 percent to US$2.0561 per pound and 0.5 percent to 121.27 yen.
Robis predicted the dollar will drop to at least US$1.40 against the euro and US$2.1 per pound in the next three months.
The US currency also slumped to 79.92 US cents per New Zealand dollar, the weakest since the central bank allowed the currency to trade freely in 1985, and touched 88.34 US cents per Australian dollar, the weakest since 1989.
"You are going to see more downside in the dollar," said Rafael Martorell, chief dealer of spot foreign exchange at BNP Paribas Securities in New York. "People are getting nervous about the credit market. The concern is this may weaken US growth."
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 5.25 percent for an eighth straight meeting on June 28. The rate compares with benchmarks of 4 percent in the euro zone, 5.75 percent in the United Kingdom, 6.25 percent in Australia and 8 percent in New Zealand.
The yield on December Fed funds futures fell to 5.18 percent Friday, the lowest in a month. The yield suggests traders see about a 40 percent chance the Fed will cut its benchmark to 5 percent by year-end.
The yen rose from near a record low against the euro and rose to a six-week high versus the dollar as losses in stocks prompted investors to pare holdings of riskier assets funded by loans in Japan.
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