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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #741
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:01am Jul 20, 2007 10:01am
Quoting DutchTrader
If we close above 120.97 we're going to 124.13 next week.
I see you're quoting Jamie Saettele's exact figures. You should not blindly follow EWT/TA with no regard for underlying fundamentals. His recent long-dollar calls based upon EWT are now underwater after today's events.
  • #742
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:03am Jul 20, 2007 10:03am
Quoting DutchTrader
[/b]

Thatīs the answer to sell off on Eur/yen. Ok. Thank you

Sell off on Yen/pairs is finished?
  • #743
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:05am Jul 20, 2007 10:05am
Quoting Trader KGB
I see you're quoting Jamie Saettele's figures. You should not blindly follow EWT/TA with no regard for underlying fundamentals. His recent long-dollar calls based upon EWT are now underwater after today's events.
Not blindly at all, but you did see the 120.97 test right? Or did you miss that? I follow my own gut feeling, TA and fundamentals.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #744
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:18am Jul 20, 2007 10:18am
Quoting DutchTrader
Not blindly at all, but you did see the 120.97 test right?
Yes, I saw it tested, broken, and a new low of 120.88 established. That invalidates his call, and I'm sure he'll have a new strategy posted on Monday.
  • #745
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:21am Jul 20, 2007 10:21am
Quoting Trader KGB
Yes, I saw it tested, broken, and a new low of 120.88 established. That invalidates his call, and I'm sure he'll have a new strategy posted on Monday.
I can't knock the guy's analysis, I incorporate my own experience, TA, fundamentals and special situations, such as subprime and go from there. Every trader/analyst is wrong at some point or time. I still look for 124/125 after this correction. China didn't hike as much as the market expected, there's still subprime concerns but if you look at the JPY crosses the usd/jpy is the most reasonable amongst them. In the wake of JPY weakness it hasn't appreciated as much as the GBP, AUD and NZD as a matter of fact it's the only cross to have not established multi decade highs vs the JPY. So I like 124, regardless.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #746
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:28am Jul 20, 2007 10:28am
I'm never trading Fridays after a week of consolidation ever again
  • #747
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:32am Jul 20, 2007 10:32am
Good day ..DutchTrader...comfy from Singapore ...

May I know why you are so Bullish about yen going 124.+ next week..?

A very brave call indeed..

Quoting DutchTrader
If 120.97 holds and we consolidate above that I look for a breakout to 124.13 next week.
  • #748
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:33am Jul 20, 2007 10:33am
Quoting DutchTrader
if you look at the JPY crosses the usd/jpy is the most reasonable amongst them.
I would be hesitant to look for relative value or "reasonable"ness of USD/JPY vs the other yen crosses. USD/JPY is where it is comparatively because the USDX is at multi-decade lows in the midst of a heavy downtrend.

All of the yen crosses will move in tandem with yen strength/weakness (they are all down today). A USD/JPY trade assumes USDX gains, it has been and will continue to be an underperformer relative to the other yen crosses until we see widespread dollar strength (practically a misnomer these days).
  • #749
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:38am Jul 20, 2007 10:38am
Quoting Trader KGB
I would be hesitant to look for relative value or "reasonable"ness of USD/JPY vs the other yen crosses. USD/JPY is where it is comparatively because the USDX is at multi-decade lows in the midst of a heavy downtrend.

All of the yen crosses will move in tandem with yen strength/weakness (they are all down today). A USD/JPY trade assumes USDX gains, it has been and will continue to be an underperformer relative to the other yen crosses until we see widespread dollar strength (practically a misnomer these days).
The USDX doesn't always correlate with the usd/jpy
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #750
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:46am Jul 20, 2007 10:46am
Quoting DutchTrader
The USDX doesn't always correlate with the usd/jpy
Right, only a 50% correlation, the other 50% is the yen. I was just saying a correlation of yen crosses, and a relative value analysis of USD/JPY vs those other crosses, is aided by considering the factors affecting the USD side of the equation.
  • #751
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:53am Jul 20, 2007 10:53am
Quoting Trader KGB
Right, only a 50% correlation, the other 50% is the yen. I was just saying a correlation of yen crosses, and a relative value analysis of USD/JPY vs those other crosses, is aided by considering the factors affecting the USD side of the equation.
Ahhhh..gotcha.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #752
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:54am Jul 20, 2007 10:54am
Quoting Trader KGB
I would be hesitant to look for relative value or "reasonable"ness of USD/JPY vs the other yen crosses. USD/JPY is where it is comparatively because the USDX is at multi-decade lows in the midst of a heavy downtrend.

All of the yen crosses will move in tandem with yen strength/weakness (they are all down today). A USD/JPY trade assumes USDX gains, it has been and will continue to be an underperformer relative to the other yen crosses until we see widespread dollar strength (practically a misnomer these days).

Excuse me Deutch Trader. You are right in what you say, but iīm seeing Fibo at 50% from 03/2007 low to High 2007/06/13 at 119,73, if itīs well drawn. Today low at 38,2 fibo. Isnīt 50% an usual level for retracemment? Excuse my unknown. I only want to learn, for that i ask the question, and I thanks for answer.
  • #753
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:56am Jul 20, 2007 10:56am
Quoting Forexpupil
Excuse me Deutch Trader. You are right in what you say, but iīm seeing Fibo at 50% from 03/2007 low to High 2007/06/13 at 119,73, if itīs well drawn. Today low at 38,2 fibo. Isnīt 50% an usual level for retracemment? Excuse my unknown. I only want to learn, for that i ask the question, and I thanks for answer.
It depends, I noticed that with the yen things get real tricky as the interest rates are so out of wack that corrections tend to be very dramatic. Such as in March(?) someone help me out here.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #754
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:06am Jul 20, 2007 11:06am
Quoting DutchTrader
It depends, I noticed that with the yen things get real tricky as the interest rates are so out of wack that corrections tend to be very dramatic. Such as in March(?) someone help me out here.
In March was dramatic. From 119 to 114. Thank you very much.
  • #755
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:06am Jul 20, 2007 11:06am
I hope we can start going long soon. to 124. Heck 123 would be nice for me

Do you think this will continue in a down trend?
  • #756
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:09am Jul 20, 2007 11:09am
Forexpupil, thanks thats what I was asking.

Quoting Forexpupil
In March was dramatic. From 119 to 114. Thank you very much.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #757
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:10am Jul 20, 2007 11:10am
Just like to throw my TA into the mix too, and suggest to any on the sidelines to hold off on USD/JPY longs until we see some stability. Right now, USD/JPY is positioned in a strong bearish stance. It's trading below the 50-day SMA, the March trendline was shattered, and the MACD recently had a bearish zero-line cross on the daily chart.

On the fundamental side, a flight to quality in the bond market and an equity market selloff (esp. in speculative issues, Russell 2k off 2.3%) will drive a continued sell-off of both the USD and yen carry trades. Today is very reminiscent of the late February correction. I would wait for the fundamental landscape to clear up and for USD/JPY to retake its March trendline before considering long trades here.
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  • #758
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:11am Jul 20, 2007 11:11am
Quoting Trader KGB
Just like to throw my TA into the mix too, and suggest to any on the sidelines to hold off on USD/JPY longs until we see some stability. Right now, USD/JPY is positioned in a strong bearish stance. It's trading below the 50-day SMA, the March trendline was shattered, and the MACD recently had a bearish zero-line cross on the daily chart.

On the fundamental side, a flight to quality in the bond market and an equity market selloff (esp. in speculative issues, Russell 2k off 2.3%) will drive a continued sell-off of both the USD and yen carry trades. Today is very reminiscent of the late February correction. I would wait for the fundamental landscape to clear up and for USD/JPY to retake its March trendline before considering long trades here.

Good chart, and solid analysis. We will see what Sunday night brings, eh? FWIW I'm long from 120.90
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #759
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:16am Jul 20, 2007 11:16am
One thing I never do is be analysistic on how this market moves.... I use the tick bar and at the 122.08, I seen it coming for the short.... at the 121.81 my indicator said it was hard and I stayed with it..... 100 pip profit.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #760
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:21am Jul 20, 2007 11:21am
The short I was holding since last Sunday night at 121.99 was stopped out last night by 5 pips before this major down fall. Arrrgghhh and all the swap I paid out makes it even worse.
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