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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #840,921
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:47am Oct 6, 2024 8:47am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Oh ok, waves are another matter. The D1 Long-legged doji has a low probability as a stand-alone pattern, If it goes to 1.3 then that's still ok as wave 4?
But with single pullback to the upside before 4hr trend continuity will touch EW4 . There must be pullback before the structure to EWN 4 can be completed.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,922
  • Oct 6, 2024 9:00am Oct 6, 2024 9:00am
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People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #840,923
  • Oct 6, 2024 9:12am Oct 6, 2024 9:12am
What he could do is post something useful, only he has NEVER posted anything useful. He posts 15 min scalps Luckily he can't see this post.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,924
  • Oct 6, 2024 9:21am Oct 6, 2024 9:21am
Quoting Bones
What he could do is post something useful, only he has NEVER posted anything useful. He posts 15 min scalps Luckily he can't see this post.
What's wrong with 15m scalps? Ppl can make $$ trading news event's false breakouts in 1m to 5m charts.

Honestly for me it was like a fresh breeze of air when i switched to short term from long term
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #840,925
  • Oct 6, 2024 10:08am Oct 6, 2024 10:08am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} What's wrong with 15m scalps? Ppl can make $$ trading news event's false breakouts in 1m to 5m charts. Honestly for me it was like a fresh breeze of air when i switched to short term from long term
nothing wrong with 15 min scalps, it's folks that can't trade 15 min scalps that have problems ...
  • #840,926
  • Oct 6, 2024 10:17am Oct 6, 2024 10:17am
Quoting Headland
...just a little bit more on how Banks/Hedge-funds actually use research/analysis/modeling. This may help Zebi to better understand (not guess based on a pre-conceived narrative that he has grown very fond of,) that it is not about prediction. They too (the so called 'smart-money' see the folly of that, - only the amateurs do not.) Not a great deal has changed from my day and in fact I had a phone conversation this morning with a pal who is one of the best traders @ a top London Hedge fund re a certain scenario that was developing and how he/they...
You've spoken basically about the modus operandi of Banks and Financial Institutions (Central Banks Inclusive).
Buying and Selling at key level after passing through all necessary internal policies. The intention is not basically speculative though there could still be a kind of insider trading which is strictly prohibited.

However, hedge fund go extra miles to ensure trades are placed at a key level that follows a certain predictive pattern. Yes, sure it's also emotional/risky while price still operates within risky parameters but with 7 or 10 people in a group and the previously achieved success, the emotional attachment is drastically reduced.

Personally, I see same structure on both lower time frame and higher time frame over and over again which lead to my believe in patterns.

The true market structure is not really documented but there are write-up that are similar which Pipfarm and few traders here have been adopting.

My own perspective anyway.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,927
  • Oct 6, 2024 10:22am Oct 6, 2024 10:22am
Quoting Bones
What he could do is post something useful, only he has NEVER posted anything useful. He posts 15 min scalps Luckily he can't see this post.
hhahhahhaha loooseeerrr
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #840,928
  • Oct 6, 2024 10:28am Oct 6, 2024 10:28am
the hyenas are out,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,929
  • Oct 6, 2024 11:35am Oct 6, 2024 11:35am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. I'll answer your points in the order you raise them in your post. I will number them for ease. 1. '...you wouldn't have all those questions if you didn't try to use 5 min TA and trading methods on weekly and monthly and quarterly charts...' a. TA is applicable to all t/f's, fact. b. I don't look @ Quarterly charts. 2. '...since you said one time your a professional in the industry you know banks and hedge funds employee thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time...' a. I have never once...

Waooooh! You nailed it. Exactly, the true picture and more analytical.

Just seeing this post

Thanks for telling the truth but many will not key into it.

Great pally
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,930
  • Oct 6, 2024 12:10pm Oct 6, 2024 12:10pm
little fine tuning before market open , so next morning not puzzle if unexpected happen ! 3174 is the determinant if little more correction 3230/36 limit or not before 2980, otherwise continue down for repeated test breaks 2980. so best target again and again! if limit breaks up anyway un expected then price bounce likely over 3304! vhope not though overall will p[rice range down below 3230 , as sl for all shorts ! take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #840,931
  • Oct 6, 2024 12:20pm Oct 6, 2024 12:20pm
Iran closing airspace tonight something is brewing , could heavily impact markets if so
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #840,932
  • Oct 6, 2024 12:36pm Oct 6, 2024 12:36pm
Quoting KareemAliFx
Iran closing airspace tonight something is brewing , could heavily impact markets if so
may be , if any strike ! nothing any great may happen ! just oil may spike to over 80 ! lets see
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #840,933
  • Oct 6, 2024 1:02pm Oct 6, 2024 1:02pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} nothing wrong with 15 min scalps, it's folks that can't trade 15 min scalps that have problems ...

  • #840,934
  • Edited 2:16pm Oct 6, 2024 1:27pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting Zebi
2. '...since you said one time your a professional in the industry....
Hi. Thanks for your reply - full of inaccuracies though it was which I'll just correct here, in the order in which you assert/make them in your post, again numbered for ease. Accuracy matters. I'll also comment where applicable.

1. '...working for and getting a paycheck from a bank or hedge fund is being a professional regardless if you're unemployed now ...so I don't know what your trying to say here.'
I was being modest. I'm not unemployed, I'm self-employed.

2. '...so seems youre in the efficient market camp which I'm not...I'm not a random guy either just think the market is chaotic at times even when everythings known ..... you cant have an "edge" if tens of millions of other traders use and do the same thing and have the same "edge" LOL.'
Like I'm neither a bull nor a bear, (on the t/f's I operate on 4hr is a long time, and daily a very long time!) I neither subscribe to the efficient market theory or the random walk or chaos theory of markets. What I have observed over a long multi-decade period of time though is that if the market is efficient then there are periods of randomness/chaos in it, and if the market is random/chaotic - there are efficiencies and repeating patterns in that too. I do have a TA derived edge and have been making money from it for 20 years now.

3. '... So my edge I guess is that I short brekouts since they fail 80% of the time...just like this week which I predicted from probabilities LOL... was gonna happen 2 weeks ago LOL.'
If that is your edge, I think it is basically sound as most 1st b/o's of anything are false. I comment almost everyday about the b/o''s of asian hi/lo and y/day's hi/lo etc and whether they are false or not. Indeed there is a known repeating pattern called 'congestion 2nd b/o' that aims to capitalise on the greater probability that a 1st b/o of a range is false, price pulls back to it and the 2nd b/o is more often than not truer.

4. '...you address my point trading weekly and monthly charts like they're 5 min. is the reason your wrong so often at the turns...last year you were wrong at thanksgiving, at Christmas and this year several times on the daily and weekly charts cause you seem fixated on long green or red candles...how many times have I said the room is bullish because the weekly or daily chart printed a big green candle that was reversed the very next day LOL.... you did it again on the 24th and/or 26th ...and there's many more examples I can repost since it wont be hard finding them cause all I have to do is look for swing hi's when the majority of the room was bullish '

Like I said in my original reply to your post, how can I be wrong if I never make predictions,? (because I have an edge.) Show me one post I have made where I have been wrong about a prediction! I often comment on set-ups/candlesticks etc and if it is bullish I will say it is bullish, and conversely bearish, but I also always try to give the context, ie like whether it closes at potential supp/res/sbr/rbs on the it's own/the next higher t/f (+) etc. Your assertions are just manifestly false for these reasons. stop trying to discredit me in this way.

On the wider point about this swing down from 3434 on Gbpusd. The way you present it, all the rest of this thread was bullish (dipshits) and waiting for higher prices, and only you have benefited from the short. Utter rubbish, there may have been a few that thought prices would continue to rise, (Wavegarrick for eg with his thought that 3500 then 4000 would be achieved, and he still might be proved right, who knows?) But I do not make predictions and indeed was the first in the room to point out the potential dly resistance zone that extends up to 3437, from March 2022. ) I like many others here have benefitted from the move down from 3434 (current yrly hi) to last wk's lo. I've also been long during that total move down.

Re that Gbpusd situation; If you remember I commented that the 1st dly candle that reached that potential dly res zone to 3437 - a bullish thrust dly candle did so in thatsaid potential res zone, then there was a bearish engulf of it, then a bullish engulf of that, and then a bearish candle. Ie there were multiple attempts to get north of it that were rejected by the market. I commented on this too. (see dly chart below.)

5. '...wheeew...took me an hour using my one index finger to type all this shit...maybe I shud start using a voice to text app.'
The immediate aforegoing to this part of your post quoted above is interesting. How's your index finger? - better now I hope!
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,935
  • Edited 4:21pm Oct 6, 2024 1:40pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Headland, I know my sample size is coming up to 20 years, I know it when I see it. With candles, all you need to know is if something is a low or high probability to start with....
Hi. A good sample size and I am sure that you have a good handle re whether a candle (s) formation is bullish or bearish with a good degree of accuracy based on all that empirical evidence. You choose to do it your way by storing it in your head, I choose to do it my way, by documenting it.

For the avoidance of doubt re the subsequent comments in your post, 60% of my trade entries are on 1min or 3min, 25% on 5min, and the rest on 15min, 30min and 1hr, candle closes, - these all for either entering a trade initially, or adding to a winner, (I don't add to losers.) Yes, I achieve a very high win rate on these trades, but I don't always achieve a 1:1 R:R (if it's a scalp,) so if the qualification were that, the win rate would be less.

Re mechanising my edge, ( per you post - I've said it is accurate but never said it was mechanical,) well I think there are too many variables. For example, I have 6 repeating swing patterns that are against trend, and 3 of those have one acceptable repeating variant each, and I have 5 repeating swing patterns that are with (at least next higher t/f) trend after a pullback. Add to this 3 further repeating geometric price patterns that sometimes combine with these, and I have 3 further repeating purely price action patterns that I trade too - in the right context. Speaking of context I manually mark up relevant supp/res charts and keep them up to date (along with any confluences of the potential supp/res factors that may result,) as well as what each relevant t/f's prevailing current state is, all as as price discovery takes place, and I have stats that tell me their likely relative strengths in repeating scenarios/contexts, and where for example in a prev swing hi or lo zone that might act as potential res or supp, the supply or demand (respectively) is most likely to be. So I think it would be difficult to mechanise this in an EA for example, without losing the accuracy that I currently benefit from trading it manually. Also, I enjoy it.

Finally, tiresome now I know, but re your post, and for the umpteenth time of saying here/explaining why it is unnecessary when you have an edge - I DO NOT PREDICT!
Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,936
  • Oct 6, 2024 1:58pm Oct 6, 2024 1:58pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Thanks for your reply - full of inaccuracies though it was which I'll just correct here, in the order in which you assert/make them in your post, again numbered for ease. Accuracy matters. I'll also comment where applicable. 1. '...working for and getting a paycheck from a bank or hedge fund is being a professional regardless if you're unemployed now ...so I don't know what your trying to say here.' I'm not unemployed, I'm self-employed. 2. '...so seems youre in the efficient market camp which I'm not...I'm not a random guy either just...
Don't read Zebi's posts but what I've figured out from reading this post is that Zebi has two arseholes to shit out of now...
  • #840,937
  • Oct 6, 2024 2:00pm Oct 6, 2024 2:00pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. A good sample size and I am sure that you have a good handle re whether a candle (s) formation is bullish or bearish with a good degree of accuracy based on all that empirical evidence. You choose to do it your way by storing it in your head, I choose to do it my way, by documenting it. For the avoidance of doubt re the subsequent comments in your post, 60% of my trade entries are in the 1min or 3min, 25% on 5min, and the rest on t/f's from 15min, 30min and 1hr, - these all for either entering a trade initially, or adding to a winner,...
...and again within two posts another new arsehole torn...Headland you are on fire...
  • #840,938
  • Oct 6, 2024 2:58pm Oct 6, 2024 2:58pm
GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is bearish. Presently, price action is tackling the1.30810 horizontal support. The technical impulse favours bears.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #840,939
  • Oct 6, 2024 2:58pm Oct 6, 2024 2:58pm
not much cable news until later in the week, holding my sell trade from 1.3360
  • #840,940
  • Oct 6, 2024 3:08pm Oct 6, 2024 3:08pm
300 pips in the first 4 days of a quarter is a bit weird.
I searched the dataset for this condition, found 15 out of 94
Let's see in December
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Air force
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