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  • #840,901
  • Oct 6, 2024 5:44am Oct 6, 2024 5:44am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} That's why it's sometimes ridiculous if some traders are able to make predictions about market direction and then point with arrows on their charts that prices will follow their direction. Since I realized that the market is not a gambling market because there are many smart people in it who are able to analyze it in a structured and efficient manner,since then I have studied how prices react and follow the direction of prices based on PA. It's a shame that traders learn to predict rather than following what the market wants it would be...
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Add good MM = billionaire , works for me ...
  • #840,902
  • Oct 6, 2024 5:50am Oct 6, 2024 5:50am
I predict things all the time, as far I am concerned everyone does the exact same thing, however you cut it.
My empirical data is in my head.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,903
  • Edited 6:07am Oct 6, 2024 5:55am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting Bones
{quote} yes, I would use the same principle as this, at a certain point it can't be changed (easy) {image} {image}
My question is, why that red May monthly candle didn't follow the green/blue monthly candles? And why did that red monthly candle started a down trend for the rest of the year, but the blue ones behind it didn't start a bull trend?

Is it bc May is more important than other months, or something fundamental changed there? Or something else?

Not a criticism, just my sincere doubts and questions
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #840,904
  • Oct 6, 2024 5:59am Oct 6, 2024 5:59am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} That's why it's sometimes ridiculous if some traders are able to make predictions about market direction and then point with arrows on their charts that prices will follow their direction. Since I realized that the market is not a gambling market because there are many smart people in it who are able to analyze it in a structured and efficient manner,since then I have studied how prices react and follow the direction of prices based on PA. It's a shame that traders learn to predict rather than following what the market wants it would be...
thanks for this, thats my plan too
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #840,905
  • Edited 7:55am Oct 6, 2024 6:08am | Edited 7:55am
I have a lot of fun with many predictions as it defiantly riles up the crowd, what is it though? but adding up the probabilities
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,906
  • Oct 6, 2024 6:13am Oct 6, 2024 6:13am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} My question is, why that red May monthly candle didn't follow the green/blue monthly candles? And why did that red monthly candle started a down trend for the rest of the year, but the blue ones behind it didn't start a bull trend? Is it bc May is more important than other months, or something fundamental changed there? Or something else? Not a criticism, just my sincere doubts and questions
it's a shaven open engulfing first, off res and also a quarterly open
the blue one went up against it, the blue one is the retrace, logically
it's not an easy set-up at all
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,907
  • Oct 6, 2024 6:17am Oct 6, 2024 6:17am
this is a quarterly open, I'm willing to cut it some slack
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,908
  • Oct 6, 2024 6:29am Oct 6, 2024 6:29am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} thanks for this, thats my plan too
Hahahaha
  • #840,909
  • Oct 6, 2024 6:36am Oct 6, 2024 6:36am
Quoting F.g
{quote} Man, yes... Shits can go crazy in Middle East...... Israel plus USA will wipe out all oil producing facilities in Iran . To say the least. No power can stop them . This is already in the market imho .....I believe we might have seen some significant lows in E. and BP. Crest in $JY. --- Next week will show us. We are not prophets..... Stay safe all.
  • #840,910
  • Edited 7:32am Oct 6, 2024 6:44am | Edited 7:32am
2. '...since you said one time your a professional in the industry you know banks and hedge funds employee thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time...'

a. I have never once said I was a professional, I am though educated, and re your post, it's you're not your! I have however been a long-term trader for a large-cap Bank (on the client and prop sides,) and a start-up (then boutique) Hedge-Fund, before I went fully self-employed to trade my own account, by developing a tactical edge using TA.

working for and getting a paycheck from a bank or hedge fund is being a professional regardless if you're unemployed now ...so I don't know what your trying to say here
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3. '...thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time so I wonder why you keep saying that same crap about not predicting lol so bragging you don't do that shows your all wet in your reasoning...'

You are conflating 2 or 3 separate things;
a. I use TA re my trading edge. TA is simply a graphical representation of repeating patterns of market behavior on a price -vs- time chart. That's it, it is not predictive, hence no reason to predict. It operates under the assumption that everything that is currently known that might affect price, is discounted into price, represented at the hard right edge of the chart.. If you have identified a repeating pattern (s) that represents an edge over a known sample size of occurrences, then each time the pattern repeats the outcome of the repeating pattern (ie subsequent price discovery,) will be a win or a loss, but any individual occurrence's outcome is not known to us in advance, but over the course of the sample, (if you stick to your edge's entry/exit and money management rules,) it will result in a profit. I am not bragging about this, simply stating facts, and my reasoning is sound.

So, there is what you call prediction, (which in reality, for 'professionals' as briefly explained above, is far more sophisticated than that, and based on probabilities not prediction,) and then there are repeating patterns that may represent an edge over a given sample size, be they TA, or Fundie/Global macro, or any other type of analysis derived, which have no need for prediction, as the outcome over a known sample is already known.

so seems youre in the efficient market camp which I'm not...I'm not a random guy either just think the market is chaotic at times even when everythings known ..... you cant have an "edge" if tens of millions of other traders use and do the same thing and have the same "edge" LOL

so my edge I guess is that I short brekouts since they fail 80% of the time...just like this week which I predicted from probabilities LOL... was gonna happen 2 weeks ago LOL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6. '...if anyone thought the USA was gonna let the dollar fall thru that long-term shaded support level needs to see a psychiatrist LOL so please stop talking about how predicting isn't advisable just reacting...'

a. Lol. If you but knew it, when price was testing that long-term monthly potential rbs/supp on DXY that you refer to, and you expressed this by going short gbpusd, you too were playing a repeating pattern, ie 'reacting,' based on your own maybe empirical, maybe anecdotal/observational evidence, because price had ranged then bounced up -or- just straight bounced up from there, on tests of it, you effectively went long the $, ie you did so in the hope/anticipation of it doing so again, because you had evidence of the historical outcomes of the 'pattern,' which up until now has not failed, and patterns repeat, and the outcomes of patterns repeat over a sample - sufficient to realize a net gain over the sample, (until they don't.)

I don't use chart patterns just price action by which I mean candle relationships and their open/closes like livermore and wyckoff used over a 100 years ago on the daily chart before there were computers ....i posted the chart of the "wyckoff spring" on sept 27th and that's all one needs to pick tops and bottoms....don't need any recurring chart patterns ...and I've used that spring in many other bottom posts which people can google if they want to use it in their trading

Quoting Zebi
{quote} yesterday I posted a dollar chart that's been in a tight daily range for 2 weeks....today nothings changed that....bad news at the lows is good and good news at the highs is bad LOL here's a new dollar chart with a spring reversal pattern...people can google it if they're not familiar what that means ill answer headland over the weekend since he didn't rebut my analysis using TA just ad hominem {image}
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a. I use the exact type of TA on 5min as I do on Wkly/Mthly. One cannot be wrong if one doesn't predict. In my w/e analysis posts, and other posts, I comment on the t/f's from Mthly down. If I comment on a repeating pattern on one of those t/f's, that may be present, ( be that indy and/or candlestick based,) and that pattern on that occasion doesn't go on to realize a winning outcome, (not that I use anything above the 1hr as a trigger to enter a trade,) then that will be one of the occasions in the sample size that loses. That's it. There is no ego involved. In pointing it out I am never predicting that any particular instance of it will be one of the winning outcome instances. I am merely pointing it out. Others' will judge what to do with that information, but if they do act on it, I hope they use it to do their own research and derive their own trading edge using it as an idea.

this was the crux of my original post...you spent a 1000 words making my eyes glaze over and finally at the end of your post you address my point
trading weekly and monthly charts like they're 5 min. is the reason your wrong so often at the turns...last year you were wrong at thanksgiving, at Christmas and this year several times on the daily and weekly charts cause you seem fixated on long green or red candles...how many times have I said the room is bullish because the weekly or daily chart printed a big green candle that was reversed the very next day LOL.... you did it again on the 24th and/or 26th ...and there's many more examples I can repost since it wont be hard finding them cause all I have to do is look for swing hi's when the majority of the room was bullish
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------b. You have a real thing about the 5min chart lol! It is not about what t/f you use, or what type of analysis you employ. It is about understanding what an edge is, and what you have to know about it, then deriving an empirically proven edge, and developing the necessary psychology to actually trade that edge profitably. It is then about capital preservation, first and foremost, and only then can you seek to sensibly/safely grow that capital. After that, whether you make 100 pips per month or 1000 for example, it is about % return on capital employed (risk,) and on total capital employed (margin,) not about pips. When you have all that sorted out/mastered, then you can actually generate some money!

i understand one doesn't have an edge in the market of repeating patterns when tens of millions of other people do the same thing LOL

that's why I trade like the old timers did before computers were invented....you must know that dow,wyckoff, gann,elliott, Livermore, edwards and magee , buffet and countless other old traders developed their methods off the daily charts since one couldn't daytrade the 1 or 5 min. since they didn't have computers.. daytrading is a modern invention ....the only one who did daytrade was livermore in bucketshops since he had a eidetic memory so could plot a intraday chart in his head LOL
so trying to use methods and systems developed 80-90-100 years ago off of daily charts these guys looked at on their kitchen or study tables is idiotic trying to use them on a 5 or 15 min chart LOL

wheeew...took me an hour using my one index finger to type all this shit...maybe I shud start using a voice to text app
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #840,911
  • Edited 7:03am Oct 6, 2024 6:47am | Edited 7:03am
i need to rest... my finger is cramping up LOL

ill respond to your second post headland when the cramps g away
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #840,912
  • Oct 6, 2024 6:51am Oct 6, 2024 6:51am
Quoting Whale
{quote} OMG, you dont even know what is GDP LOL fuck off out of here, do yourself a favor. you are stupid
Why do you bite Whale? All you do is give him the attention he craves. If you really dislike him, send a message to his pager
  • #840,913
  • Oct 6, 2024 7:06am Oct 6, 2024 7:06am
Quoting Bones
I predict things all the time, as far I am concerned everyone does the exact same thing, however you cut it. My empirical data is in my head.
Hi. And if it works for you, great. Re empirical data and where you keep it - if it's in your head -great. Just understand the difference between empirical and anecdotal evidence/data.
Quoting Bones
I have a lot of fun with many predictions as it defiantly riles up the crowd, what is though? but adding up the probabilities {image} {image}
If you are having to predict based on empirical data then you don't know whether an edge is definitely present or not, let alone over what sample size (and how many) it is/and has been present over. If you did, you wouldn't have to/feel the need to predict each individual set-up's outcome in any given sample.
Yes, predictions can be fun, and yes they can be contentious, and spark discussion/reaction.
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I guess I was lucky coming from 'the industry,' into being a self-employed trader. I already knew what a trading edge was, (and was not.) I also knew what I needed to know about one so that I could develop one to suit my personality, and personal tolerances/needs, from my chosen type of analysis. I could then maximize the money management to it (ie; risk and trade management,) so that it was optimized to the essential continually updated stats of the edge. I also knew and had mastered the trading psychology of a trading edge so that I could close the so-called profit gap. Ie; between having a theoretically proven trading edge and actually trading it consistently profitably. Most that come into the 'retail trading' industry/activity don't know any of us, and even those that have been trying to net and consistently profitable for years still do not. Not to get too Donald Rumsfeld on ya - but some still don't even know what they need to know to give them the best chance of achieving their aims/goals. They just plod along repeating the same mistakes, but expecting a different result, presumably accepting the inevitable losses as the price of the activity/entertainment they derive from it.

By the way, at the risk of repetition, this is the definition of a trading edge;

A Trading Edge is a repeating circumstance or set of circumstances (ie a set-up or combination of set-ups comprised of whatsoever variables from whatsoever type [s] of analysis) that suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, based on historical precedent, over a large representative empirical sample (s) size to that point in time. Additionally and/or alternatively; if the edge does not suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, then based on that sample (s,) it suggests that more gain is available when it succeeds than when it fails, sufficient to realize a net gain over any given future sample, for as long as the repeating market behaviour that gives rise to it stays good.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,914
  • Oct 6, 2024 7:30am Oct 6, 2024 7:30am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} For die hard bulls like me. We are at levels that will turn a rottweiler into a scared cat. I like a retrace towards my future daily pivot at 1.33904 to 1.33725 for a possible buy trade, but hey, the onus is on you. 1.4000 is my target but let's first get to quarterly levels at 1.35 my immediate target. Daily higher high, so let's take the tip that the market has thrown at us. Cheers. {image} {image}
Here is a beautiful example why you should never try to predict the market and being "die hard bull or bear" once you have the bais in your head it's hard to change your mind because folks don't like being wrong and take it personally, thanks Leon for sharing your predictions, hope it changes direction for you soon ...
  • #840,915
  • Oct 6, 2024 7:45am Oct 6, 2024 7:45am
Quoting mallee
{quote} Why do you bite Whale? All you do is give him the attention he craves. If you really dislike him, send a message to his pager
LOL !
  • #840,916
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:07am Oct 6, 2024 8:07am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. And if it works for you, great. Re empirical data and where you keep it - if it's in your head -great. Just understand the difference between empirical and anecdotal evidence/data. {quote} If you are having to predict based on empirical data then you don't know whether an edge is definitely present or not, let alone over what sample size (and how many) it is/and has been present over.
Headland, I know my sample size is coming up to 20 years, I know it when I see it.
With candles, all you need to know is if something is a low or high probability to start with. Do I need to know the exact percentages? no, I do not.
You do not need a 95% win rate on the 1 min TF because you believe that's all you can predict.
Let me ask you if you're system is so accurate and mechanical, why don't you let the computer decide?
Why are you going through the human motions in all the tech you share?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,917
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:10am Oct 6, 2024 8:10am
Quoting Bones
{quote} yes, I would use the same principle as this, at a certain point it can't be changed (easy) {image} {image}
Hello Buddy,

Of course, I expect an experienced trader like you to look for certain footprint before placing an entry. An arrow signifying Buy or Sell doesn't equate an automatic entry point.

Yes, your chart is perfectly correct but doesn't invalid the other because the scope of your knowledge and experience determines what you see and believe.

While our aggressive account was Short from the top with just 30 pips stop and still remained opened till date, our conservatives account also remained Long and in deep profit up till date, though an attempt to close at the top but overruled. What is considered as loss at the other end is not the same as your own calculation.

I would have spoken more with evidences but constraints.

It's better we make it a forum to understudy ourselves and learn positive attributes rather than allow ego and pride to set us apart.

Nice weekend.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,918
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:24am Oct 6, 2024 8:24am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} Hello Buddy, Of course, I expect an experienced trader like you to look for certain footprint before placing an entry. An arrow signifying Buy or Sell doesn't equate an automatic entry point. Yes, your chart is perfectly correct but doesn't invalid the other because the scope of your knowledge and experience determines what you see and believe. While our aggressive account was Short from the top with just 30 pips stop and still remained opened till date, our conservatives account also remained Long and in deep profit up till date, though...
Hi, I'm not sure what you mean, but put it this way the weekly is bearish, which is where my bias comes in. So to go up it needs to reverse, the lower it goes the harder it is to recover because price is relatively high. Another bearish week like that one we're looking at sets a high probability weekly direction.
My guess is it will consolidate next, but conviction is low before open.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,919
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:34am Oct 6, 2024 8:34am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Hi, I'm not sure what you mean, but put it this way the weekly is bearish, which is where my bias comes in. So to go up it needs to reverse, the lower it goes the harder it is to recover because the price is relatively high. Another bearish week like that one we're looking at sets a high probability weekly direction. My guess is it will consolidate next, but conviction is low before open.
My response was to meu.... that condemned a post.

However, I am looking at the big picture and have gone long on EWN 2, Short again at EWN 3. Both trades are opened. Basically, we work with structures and not news release or other factors.

Therefore, trying to justify my position may be wrong from others perspective.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,920
  • Oct 6, 2024 8:39am Oct 6, 2024 8:39am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} My response was to meu.... that condemned a post. However, I am looking at the big picture and have gone long on EWN 2, Short again at EWN 3. Both trades are opened. Basically, we work with structures and not news release or other factors. Therefore, trying to justify my position may be wrong from others perspective.
Oh ok, waves are another matter. The D1 Long-legged doji has a low probability as a stand-alone pattern, If it goes to 1.3 then that's still ok as wave 4?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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