Cable Update (GBPUSD)

you wouldn't have all those questions if you didn't try to use 5 min TA and trading methods on weekly and monthly and quarterly charts

its easy and required to "react" to price instead of predict on the 1 and 5 and even 15min charts.... since you said one time your a professional in the industry you know banks and hedge funds employee thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time so I wonder why you keep saying that same crap about not predicting lol

so bragging you don't do that shows your all wet in your reasoning

hedge funds and pension funds and us social security funds are so big and have so many billions under management they cant react to price since they the ones that move price...they piss on market makers.. anyone that's ever wasted their time watching cnbc or whatever financial news has heard about market rotation...well that's these pension funds moving their money around cause their analysts predicted that's the end of the trend on the monthly or yearly chart they following...google pension funds and see how much money they hold

when i look at weekly and monthly charts i try to think like they do...they cant react and chase price as its going up since they'll move price up hier on themselves since they have 100's of billions of dollars to buy or sell just from their own orders so they have to trade "contrarian" which i mean buying like they did the last 3 weeks like i kept showing on the dollar chart of all those inside candles on the daily chart which nobody paid attention to so all GU bulls nursing wounds right now LOL
the charts in these quotes show accumulation by these hedge and pension funds...if anyone thought the USA was gonna let the dollar fall thru that longterm shaded support level needs to see a psychiatrist LOL

so please stop talking about how predicting isn't advisable just reacting is since that reacting works when you're trading your 5 min chart but that's why you're wrong so often when you try that technique on weekly and monthly charts

cause the smart money all predict since they have so many billions and trillions of dollars to move around and could care less about reacting to a 5 min chart LOL

Yeah! I got the point

Thanks a lot.

what charting platform is this?

Extreme conditions indicate high probabilities.
There is a common feature between the current quarter and those on the chart

did you subtract the billions USA gives you every year

OMG, you dont even know what is GDP

LOL fuck off out of here, do yourself a favor.
you are stupid

I got curious and looked up at exchange rate. Looks like crypto meme-token.
its constant since 2018 and official =1/42k (~600k on black market). But 14 April '24 it was 1/750k


How exchange rates fluctuations correlate with military strength/likelihood of victory in armed conflict/war? Isn't it a complex phenomena?
Who needs a well-rounded analysis when you can just watch which currency is losing value (3% up/down, while IRR in free fall for years, literally no one needs it)?
No shit, Zebi. You've found ultimate crystal ball for predicting military outcomes. Genius logic.

But seriously, your comments on this topic are next level of retardness.

I think you must understand currency traders are reactionary. Dumping a countries currency while that country is being bombed, is entirely consistent with a normal trading response. It does not reflect a traders view on who will win a war (as if a traders view on geopolitics is at all relevant to reality anyway).

we're not talking about rial to dollar

and the nominal value doesn't mean anything its the relative value and the direction on the chart

In economics, the nominal value of something is its current price; the real value of something, however, is its relative price over time. Both can be used to talk about the value of not only money, but also your wages, share prices and other things that have financial value

but I'm glad I'm being attacked by you and whale...means I'm right LOL

I am interested in your view point of “wealthier” and “stronger”. What’s your idea of Iran being wealthier? It couldn’t mean total gdp, gdp per head of population, average income or living standards, since Israel comes out on top in all of those. “Stronger?”. Iran has a superior military force in terms of numbers of combatants and navy, while Israel has air attack, defence and clear technology advantages. I don’t think you will find many countries better at winning multi-front wars than Israel, just look at it’s military/conflict history. Comparing Hitlers march on Russia to Israel fighting its neighbours is chalk and cheese. (As a side note, Israel’s multi front wars happened after Germany’s, so the LAST multifront war you talk of is not a great example ).

trumps...youre one of the smarter people in the room so I'm surprised with what you just said LOL

I thot after all this time you'd do your homework so you make sense

as you can see from the Russian invasion of ukie with my yellow highlight... price did the opposite of what you said in your quote...seems like nobody learned anything from my post to headland about reaction on higher timeframes

the ruble fell while russia dropped bombs on ukie and the hryvnia went up while ukie was bombed...the opposite shud have happened using your logic...then a month later as russia gained ground the ruble went up until USA and nato started propping up zelensky who hasn't stopped begging for money ever since...he's a bigger begger than the likud party LOL..and their respective currencies have become rangebound since they're in a stalemate now and when kamala wins the spigot of nukie and Israeli handouts gona get turned off

I'm just surprised youre talking out of your ass like whale and wolfram instead of reading charts and learning

when you say “seal its fate”, what do you mean? Are you suggesting a higher timeframe trend change if we get another bearish weekly?

Doesn't matter. It's the same order of magnitude to ILS, add 1 zero in black market rates.
Also, in cross rate usd is like 99.99% involved...

(*when India buys oil from russia for rupees, russia can only reinvest the rupees in India because no one else needs it.*)
Do you think someone buys rials?

tell me the last time USA has won using its air attack and clear technological advantages that wasn't temporary

I don’t read Russian or middle eastern currency charts man, I care not much for them tbh. GU is more or less the only chart I follow, so you probably have me there. But by your own post, the outcome of this war or a war, is unknown and viewpoints on a Victor will fluctuate as the war develops.

oh I forgot to mention gold fell on the Russian invasion too ...i cant forget about that LOL

check it out

I thought we were talking about Israel and it’s battles.

we are...USA supplied them with everything they own and how well have our technological advantages we share with Israel worked for us LOL


they'll work about the same for them as they have for us when we get chased out of every country we invade ")

fighting an air war only good as long as the bombs are available ...you have to start fighting hand to hand after that

Hi. I'll answer your points in the order you raise them in your post. I will number them for ease.

1. '...you wouldn't have all those questions if you didn't try to use 5 min TA and trading methods on weekly and monthly and quarterly charts...'

a. TA is applicable to all t/f's, fact.
b. I don't look @ Quarterly charts.

2. '...since you said one time your a professional in the industry you know banks and hedge funds employee thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time...'

a. I have never once said I was a professional, I am though educated, and re your post, it's you're not your! I have however been a long-term trader for a large-cap Bank (on the client and prop sides,) and a start-up (then boutique) Hedge-Fund, before I went fully self-employed to trade my own account, by developing a tactical edge using TA.

b. Yes I agree, Banks and larger Hedge-Funds do put large resources into analysis/modeling etc. The modeling/research isn't to '...predict where price will be in a years time...' as you put it, but rather to produce a sensitivity analysis given two or more likely price path scenarios, of any given fundie/global macro analysis derived theme.(More on this later in this post.)

They put a lot of resources into this function to spot repeating patterns in their fundie/global macro analysis, for client requests, and some, to act on that modeling/research by expressing it as trades in relevant markets. Ie; it's not so much prediction, as following the most probable price direction, based on their research and/or modeling, and adjusting positions as the trade/positions progress over time. For example, in those days, China imported a lot of steel from Japan, so if the Chinese building boom was slowing down - they would short Japanese steel stocks, as there wasn't then, really a way, to 'short China.' etc.

Ask any Bank / Hedge fund analyst whether their job is to predict and they will laugh at your stupidity, and naivety of their actual function.

3. '...thousands of analysts whose only job is to just predict where price will be in a years time so I wonder why you keep saying that same crap about not predicting lol so bragging you don't do that shows your all wet in your reasoning...'

You are conflating 2 or 3 separate things;
a. I use TA re my trading edge. TA is simply a graphical representation of repeating patterns of market behavior on a price -vs- time chart. That's it, it is not predictive, hence no reason to predict. It operates under the assumption that everything that is currently known that might affect price, is discounted into price, represented at the hard right edge of the chart.. If you have identified a repeating pattern (s) that represents an edge over a known sample size of occurrences, then each time the pattern repeats the outcome of the repeating pattern (ie subsequent price discovery,) will be a win or a loss, but any individual occurrence's outcome is not known to us in advance, but over the course of the sample, (if you stick to your edge's entry/exit and money management rules,) it will result in a profit. I am not bragging about this, simply stating facts, and my reasoning is sound.

b. Where Banks/Hedge-funds use research/modeling to map out price scenarios and sensitivity analysis thereto, they will express the most likely scenario by whatever instrument (s) they choose, over whatever future time horizon they deem most appropriate, - as the modeling updates itself as time goes by via more/new information that may affect their position (s) becoming available, their algorithm will adjust positions sizes and trades accordingly, to take account of the additional/new information that has resulted in the modelling update.

c. If a Bank/Hedge fund uses repeating Fundie analysis/global macro patterns as their edge they do so in the same way as TA. Ie there are known patterns that occur very often; As a couple of examples; Think a so-called oil shock, ie Opec cutting back production, or some state's oil fields being bombed etc...is a classic 'go long oil, -or- Think Inflation as a classic 'Go long Gold' as the time-observed inflation hedge etc.. When I joined the Hedge Fund start-up, (with a commencing £500m on the books,) because we were 'lean and mean,' (for that read: didn't have big budgets for loads of nerds/analysts etc...) we expressed our Fundie/Global macro ideas by using repeating patterns. One we did very well out of one year was a spring/early summer drought in Brazil, and for that - a classic 'long coffee.,' trade as supply was going to be much less, but demand was growing. (The demographics of this market have changed since then.) These examples are well known, particularly now, but it is the unpublished proprietary research that individual large-cap players do, resulting in trading ideas, that is their 'real' edge.

So, there is what you call prediction, (which in reality, for 'professionals' as briefly explained above, is far more sophisticated than that, and based on probabilities not prediction,) and then there are repeating patterns that may represent an edge over a given sample size, be they TA, or Fundie/Global macro, or any other type of analysis derived, which have no need for prediction, as the outcome over a known sample is already known.

4. '... pension funds and us social security funds are so big and have so many billions under management they cant react to price since they the ones that move price.....'

a. I won't go into this, (it would take too long, and some of it is out of my current up-to-date knowledge base, particularly in the U.s,) but generally they are still a whole different thing (with some crossovers,) but are different for all types of reasons, not least because they are regulated differently.

5. The points you make about how pension funds etc act in the market need further research by you as to how they actually interact with the market, but some of the vague points you make, be them basic, are bordering on the valid.

6. '...if anyone thought the USA was gonna let the dollar fall thru that long-term shaded support level needs to see a psychiatrist LOL so please stop talking about how predicting isn't advisable just reacting...'

a. Lol. If you but knew it, when price was testing that long-term monthly potential rbs/supp on DXY that you refer to, and you expressed this by going short gbpusd, you too were playing a repeating pattern, ie 'reacting,' based on your own maybe empirical, maybe anecdotal/observational evidence, because price had ranged then bounced up -or- just straight bounced up from there, on tests of it. You effectively went long the $, ie you did so in the hope/anticipation of it doing so again, because you had evidence of the historical outcomes of the 'pattern,' which up until now has not failed, and patterns repeat, and the outcomes of patterns repeat over a sample - sufficient to realize a net gain over the sample, (until they don't.)

7.'..since that reacting works when you're trading your 5 min chart but that's why you're wrong so often when you try that technique on weekly and monthly charts...'

a. I use the exact type of TA on 5min as I do on Wkly/Mthly. One cannot be wrong if one doesn't predict. In my w/e analysis posts, and other posts, I comment on the t/f's from Mthly down. If I comment on a repeating pattern on one of those t/f's, that may be present, ( be that indy and/or candlestick based,) and that pattern on that occasion doesn't go on to realize a winning outcome, (not that I use anything above the 1hr as a trigger to enter a trade,) then that will be one of the occasions in the sample size that loses. That's it. There is no ego involved. In pointing it out I am never predicting that any particular instance of it will be one of the winning outcome instances. I am merely pointing it out. Others' will judge what to do with that information, but if they do act on it, I hope they use it to do their own research and derive their own trading edge using it as an idea.

8.'...the smart money all predict since they have so many billions and trillions of dollars to move around and could care less about reacting to a 5 min chart...'

a. See point 3.

b. You have a real thing about the 5min chart lol! It is not about what t/f you use, or what type of analysis you employ. It is about understanding what an edge is, and what you have to know about it, then deriving an empirically proven edge, and developing the necessary psychology to actually trade that edge profitably. It is then about capital preservation, first and foremost, and only then can you seek to sensibly/safely grow that capital. After that, whether you make 100 pips per month or 1000 for example, it is about % return on capital employed (risk,) and on total capital employed (margin,) not about pips. When you have all that sorted out/mastered, then you can actually generate some money!