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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #840,821
  • Oct 4, 2024 1:49pm Oct 4, 2024 1:49pm
Here is the daily chart. This year dailyATR (14) never was lower than 62 pips per day. Skill traders should aim for 50% of the range per day, about 30 pips. Some months were frustrating because I only traded during the NY session. It's doable. There are many ways to make money in this business.
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #840,822
  • Oct 4, 2024 1:59pm Oct 4, 2024 1:59pm
Quoting palpite
{quote} Switched to Buy {image}
trade closed +7,3 pips

good weekend

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #840,823
  • Oct 4, 2024 2:05pm Oct 4, 2024 2:05pm
Quoting Aala
{quote} How do you think that'll affect Gold?
i have no idea mate.
i will not sell gold soon, no matter what. (Lost enough for one year on a lot fake setups)

my chart could be wrong.
  • #840,824
  • Oct 4, 2024 2:24pm Oct 4, 2024 2:24pm
All buys closed in profit here at 3120. See previous posts for calls. Just a look at the chart tells me we might have obe more dip then we may buy and hold. Next week is another time. I won't use the sell button. I will only hunt buys.
  • #840,825
  • Oct 4, 2024 2:56pm Oct 4, 2024 2:56pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Ex-long term position trader here. I used to think that longer timeframes give more reliable results but man was i wrong. In a longer timespan you are more exposed to random risks. Such as wars, politics, central bank interventions etc. I find shorter periods of time much more predictable. Longer you hold the trade, longer you are exposed to risks. The shorter they are, less chance for random stuff to happen. Ofc we can agree to disagree, it's just my humble opinion. Cheers mate
From a technical point of view the higher you go the easier it is.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,826
  • Oct 4, 2024 2:57pm Oct 4, 2024 2:57pm
.
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  • #840,827
  • Oct 4, 2024 3:13pm Oct 4, 2024 3:13pm
might not be as clear as first seems
remember Zebi is only right 50% of the time
however, every step down is a further nail in the coffin of no return (this month)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #840,828
  • Oct 4, 2024 4:01pm Oct 4, 2024 4:01pm
holding for weekend , risky for gold but it’s the whole point of small account flips , anyway taking the risk for a possible gap up and upside going into next week . Meanwhile eu , I expect a possible pullback but my shorts are so high up I’m just going to chill and keep adding more shorts to pumps in till Ecb meeting . Have a good weekend all !
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Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #840,829
  • Oct 4, 2024 4:32pm Oct 4, 2024 4:32pm
Quoting KareemAliFx
holding for weekend , risky for gold but it’s the whole point of small account flips , anyway taking the risk for a possible gap up and upside going into next week . Meanwhile eu , I expect a possible pullback but my shorts are so high up I’m just going to chill and keep adding more shorts to pumps in till Ecb meeting . Have a good weekend all ! {image}
Are you trying to build a account to trade with for a living or just a hobby? im a small account trader as well but the aim to build account large enough to trade full time
  • #840,830
  • Oct 4, 2024 4:52pm Oct 4, 2024 4:52pm
Quoting Godspromise
{quote} Are you trying to build a account to trade with for a living or just a hobby? im a small account trader as well but the aim to build account large enough to trade full time
hobby, I don’t take trading seriously for the right reasons . I find my self more successful with small accounts because of better emotional control. I’ve been trading for 7 years still need to work on my self . Once I’m ready I’ll probably do bigger accounts in the future
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #840,831
  • Oct 4, 2024 9:25pm Oct 4, 2024 9:25pm
potential triple bottom on the weekly for usd. May keep gu short alive for a while
  • #840,832
  • Oct 4, 2024 9:32pm Oct 4, 2024 9:32pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} From a technical point of view the higher you go the easier it is.
Hey man i was thinking about talking to you. I have a question since you are based in UK and as far as i know handling big bank. Im thinking about switching to a safer, UK based broker. Do u have any suggestions? You can dm me if you don't wanna write it here. I wanna move to more regulated ones since the amount is not safe in the small brokerages anymore

Thanks in advance
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #840,833
  • Edited 6:58am Oct 5, 2024 1:19am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting 1dominican
{quote} Can you blame your bad system for failing trading long term positions? see just to point a KISS way to trade long position, just tell me how many pipis GBPUSD drop just in the las 5 days? those put it in and out in and out in and out missed the big drop
I had same dilemma years ago. Long term positions and markets go other way and never return. You hold on with losses and you pay swaps. Also trading on fundamental analysis within a range of 100-500 is very difficult. Movement of 500 pips can be for no reason.

I overcame this and still trade long term. The changes I made

- Its not about short or long term but rather your risk management. My trade risks are still 2-5% per trade. (example 0.2 per 100 pips or if target is 1000 pips then I take 0.02). This gives me much more flexibility to cut, add etc. depending if my assumptions and trade trends are aligned.
- If 3 losses in a row, I cut my lot size to half, I i win 3 in a row increase my lot size to 4%.
- Learned to let market do its thing. I am only there to analyze and manage my risks.
- Have a very good understanding of strong support and resistance levels and understand role of liquidity at these levels.

Work on psychology of trading. Trading based on emotion is the core reason by we overtrade, take profits earlier, cant let go losses etc. etc.

My views, as I also struggled in my earlier trading phase. I now understand how to survive snake pit called Forex trading. Sticking to good principles and risk management is the only way to survive my friend.
  • #840,834
  • Oct 5, 2024 1:29am Oct 5, 2024 1:29am
Quoting vinta.reddy
{quote} I had same dilemma years ago. Long term positions and markets go other way and never return. You hold on with losses and you pay swaps. Also trading on fundamental analysis within a range of 100-500 is very difficult. Movement of 500 pips can be for no reason. I overcame this and still trade long term. The changes I made - Its not above short or long term but rather your risk management. My trade risks are still 2-5% per trade. (example 0.2 per 100 pips or if target is 1000 pips then I take 0.02). This gives me much more flexibility to cut,...
  • #840,835
  • Oct 5, 2024 2:47am Oct 5, 2024 2:47am
Quoting Bones
might not be as clear as first seems remember Zebi is only right 50% of the time however, every step down is a further nail in the coffin of no return (this month) {image}


Anyhow, hi Folks,

Getting slowly back here to the FF crowd after a long hide out. Nice to see that the old swashbucklers are still on board.

As I see most of the pairs had a nice rollover last week. For the next week I looked into my crystal ball, and he gave me some glitter…
The trendline of the lows Bones showed us above inspired me. The first three days of next week we have little (scheduled) news – so the market might trade technically. Later on Thursday, CPI will be a mover again.
So, I looked to the DXY for confirmations and there we have a significant Boellinger Band (BB) overshoot.
Boellinger Band overshoots often trigger an intermediate return to the centerline (or close to it). Also, we had five (5) full body green candles. Someone has to go long back to find the same and that type of overshoot. Hence, a tactical retrace is quite possible.
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For the DXY that would be potentially a bounce of the 101.80 line – approx. 75DXY pips. If there is no abnormal shift between the pairs that would translate to approx. 105-115 GBP pips. That brings us to +-1.3225/35 which is near or at the GBP BB centerline -> where it could build a nice right shoulder.
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At that time CPI might come into play from where it can go in both directions. I am not a believer in lower cost of living… but hey, lately the various economical numbers are a bit confusing.
  • #840,836
  • Oct 5, 2024 3:11am Oct 5, 2024 3:11am
Quoting Coreg2004
Here is the daily chart. This year dailyATR (14) never was lower than 62 pips per day. Skill traders should aim for 50% of the range per day, about 30 pips. Some months were frustrating because I only traded during the NY session. It's doable. There are many ways to make money in this business. {image}
This analysis is very key because all trading activities either long or short term must comply with it.

I have it drawn on my chart but observed yours is perfectly labeled since all rules were strictly observed.

However, it's important for me to point out that EWN 4 must be rested on a daily support which is around 1.30.

We are currently not at a daily level and the structure to the downside needs to complete an abc before EWN 4.

Your continuous update and posting of these daily chart will go a long way to assist many traders.

Thanks and nice weekend.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,837
  • Oct 5, 2024 3:38am Oct 5, 2024 3:38am
Looks like we are still bullish
  • #840,838
  • Edited 4:09am Oct 5, 2024 3:51am | Edited 4:09am
GBPUSD, Long Trade @1.31 SL :35 Pips, target @132/50 confluence with Fib.R 38.2 and 50. perhaps this will be SBR area for continuation down trend below daily TF
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  • #840,839
  • Oct 5, 2024 4:03am Oct 5, 2024 4:03am
Sate of things as of week's close;

* Mthly Obviously this candle hasn't closed yet, and a candle isn't a candle till it has, so I won't comment on it save to say that @ it's current lo it has entered the wide prev sw hi zone = pot rbs on this t/f, that starts @ last years 3142 hi. Price is currently above last mth's 3001 lo. 77% of 6mth amr traveled so far this mth.
* Wkly The wkly candle closes as a bearish engulfing of the previous 2 candle bodies on that t/f, and below last wk's lo. It closes the week still in a general uptrend though, and @ the wkly candle lo price has entered the prev sw lo zone = prev supp that extends down to 3001, and was a 1st test of the prev sw hi zone = pot rbs that starts @ 3045. 195% of 13wk awr traveled in the week just closed!
* Dly 3 days this week closed where > 30day adr was achieved by price. Friday's candle on this t/f closes as a doji above the previous day's lo, and the t/f closes the week still in a general uptrend even after this deep correction from the current 3434 trend hi (current yrly/mthly hi.)
* 4HR The t/f (like 1hr below it) closes the week in a general downtrend. It's last 2 x candle closes were bullish-bodied creating a fractal swing lo (a LL) @ Friday's/the week's 3069 lo.

(Chart conditions per 3 candle fractal swing analysis.)

So, we have a classic dichotomy across the t/f's. At least Wkly and Dly are still in general uptrends -but- 4hr and 1hr are in general downtrends. Friday's dly candle is a doji, and on the Wkly and Mthly - price has closed in potential rbs/supp zones, and there is a fractal swing on 4hr @ Friday's/the week's lo. Is the closing state of things perhaps indicating that there will be a deeper upside pullback (already begun,) before the 4hr and 1hr downtrends continue,? or perhaps that the wkly/dly downside uptrends pullback has reached/close to reaching a bottom ready for a resumption of those uptrends? Or, perhaps a period of ranging?

I'm just full of questions because I don't know, (and I don't have to know, - so I'm entirely comfortable with that,) unlike others here who think they do know, (they may even think they have to, to make money in trading,) for they alone have the power of prediction/foresight! Sometimes though, I know the large sample empirically sourced actual probabilities, but that is all, - probabilities.

Mthly, Wkly, Dly, and 4Hr (with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic) below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,840
  • Oct 5, 2024 5:15am Oct 5, 2024 5:15am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Hey man i was thinking about talking to you. I have a question since you are based in UK and as far as i know handling big bank. Im thinking about switching to a safer, UK based broker. Do u have any suggestions? You can dm me if you don't wanna write it here. I wanna move to more regulated ones since the amount is not safe in the small brokerages anymore Thanks in advance
Hi Nordling,

I am using IG, a UK broker. They are regulated and have been operating for long time. I have no problem trading with it and smooth withdrawal of >$20k so far

One thing to look out is its data centres are all in UK, so you may experience some requote requests especially during news time for manual trade execution, as I am in Asia. I have no problem with it.
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