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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #20,401
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:14am Jul 20, 2007 5:14am
Quoting ndvt241
Today's GDP small positive result should not drive the cable price higher because it represent the past 3 months-not the future, while the other weak fundamentals more important for the future of the interest rate. Beside that, Cable priced very high at this minute.

I think, Cable must go down to 0490 at least for now.

The governments seem to think that inflation is the only fundamental worth responding to - using interest rates..

If everyone was losing their jobs and houses and business was suffering - but inflation was romping upwards (slumpflation) - they would still raise rates- we know that from the past.

So should we only take account of ONE fundamental - inflation ?

UK has inflation - interest rates WILL go up and to heck with all the other factors - and exchange rates right now care ONLY about interest rate differentials

Surely it can't be that easy to predict forex ?
  • #20,402
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:18am Jul 20, 2007 5:18am
Quoting GMaster
All significants point to drift down to 0458/0429. Resistances are at 0530 and higher 0575. A short rise above 2.0530 would delay but not abort this fall today late afternoon

GMaster
Hi,

Your own analysis or from some website? I do agree with your analysis. Thanks.
  • #20,403
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:20am Jul 20, 2007 5:20am
Think after this next lil pullback a person can sell the rallies with high probability shorts for at least a little while
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #20,404
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:24am Jul 20, 2007 5:24am
Quoting ndvt241
Today's GDP small positive result should not drive the cable price higher because it represent the past 3 months-not the future, while the other weak fundamentals more important for the future of the interest rate. Beside that, Cable priced very high at this minute.

I think, Cable must go down to 0490 at least for now.
I see the cable start going down
  • #20,405
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:25am Jul 20, 2007 5:25am
Quoting GMaster
All significants point to drift down to 0458/0429. Resistances are at 0530 and higher 0575. A short rise above 2.0530 would delay but not abort this fall today late afternoon

GMaster
USD still very very weak.... why should cable goes down?
  • #20,406
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:26am Jul 20, 2007 5:26am
Quoting soros_junior
USD still very very weak.... why should cable goes down?
Are you sweetMAMA? Hehe.
  • #20,407
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:27am Jul 20, 2007 5:27am
UBS Bank forecast for GBP/USD (on 13/Jul/07):

Actual (on 13/Jul/07) : 2.0342
forecast 3mths : 1.9700
forecast 6mths : 1.9400
forecast 12mths : 1.8900

Play long terms
  • #20,408
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:29am Jul 20, 2007 5:29am
Quoting henrycarol
Hi,

Your own analysis or from some website? I do agree with your analysis. Thanks.
Surely mine - but you can find many next analyses agreed with me and similar number of disagree with me .....
All numbers are from my Expert Advisor - Im only "viewer" and author of course

GM
  • #20,409
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:31am Jul 20, 2007 5:31am
Quoting dswk
UBS Bank forecast for GBP/USD (on 13/Jul/07):

Actual (on 13/Jul/07) : 2.0342
forecast 3mths : 1.9700
forecast 6mths : 1.9400
forecast 12mths : 1.8900

Play long terms
r u sure this forecast still valid coz they never expected for cable to shoot up to 2.0500
  • #20,410
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:34am Jul 20, 2007 5:34am
Quoting henrycarol
Are you sweetMAMA? Hehe.
u know her?
  • #20,411
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:34am Jul 20, 2007 5:34am
Quoting soros_junior
USD still very very weak.... why should cable goes down?
FX its by my opinion something like big "boiler" and for cable is little bit overheated now, after using of "safety valve", I agree, cable will climb back to 0600 and 0700

GMaster
  • #20,412
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:38am Jul 20, 2007 5:38am
Quoting soros_junior
u know her?
Cause your posts and analysis is from someone.

Either you are that person or you just copy from that person and post it here.

Btw nice pic. But I don't think that's you. LOL
  • #20,413
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:40am Jul 20, 2007 5:40am
Quoting soros_junior
r u sure this forecast still valid coz they never expected for cable to shoot up to 2.0500
I'm working in... so for sure, i'm sure.

Frenzied cable

"Momentum"
GBPUSD broke a 26-year high, staying above 2.01 for over a week. These
heights were confirmed by the Bank of England (BoE) hike on 5 July and
indications that they may need to hike again. The rebuilding of carry positions
hurt the USD and supported the high-yielding pound. The USD tends
to appreciate when investors are nervous and exit risky positions, hence it
is currently suffering. We find GBPUSD above 2.0 exaggerated, and while
the forces that pushed it there are still moving in full swing, sterling in particular could disappoint. The market looks for rates as high as 6.25% from
the BoE. As long the BoE and the economic data continue to suggest the
possibility of more hikes, the yield advantages will remain alluring.

"Fundamentals"
The GBP is overvalued, but there is sufficient momentum to maintain this
strength. We estimate equilibrium for GBPUSD at 1.68, however the
pound is benefiting from a strong British economy, a high yield, and a
hawkish central bank. We expect growth to slow both this year and next,
but this slowdown should be less severe than that in the US, and keep the
GBP from losing much of its value. The strong pound and high interest
rates will eventually take their toll on the domestic economy. While we do
not forecast further BoE hikes, there is a clear risk they hike further, and
then we expect a subsequent single cut in 2008. Even with the hiking cycle
over, the GBP will keep the yield advantages. The GBP is still attractive in a
portfolio as it offers high yields and only a gradual weakening path, in our
view.

Long term trend : Downward.
  • #20,414
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:40am Jul 20, 2007 5:40am
Quoting henrycarol
Hi,

Your own analysis or from some website? I do agree with your analysis. Thanks.
any advice bro?
  • #20,415
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:42am Jul 20, 2007 5:42am
Quoting soros_junior
r u sure this forecast still valid coz they never expected for cable to shoot up to 2.0500
The forecast applies to long term. How it gets there (IF it does) its a completly different thing. Fundamentals say it should move in the direction of the referred projections. Then again, fundamentals also say it shouldn't be this high
  • #20,416
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:43am Jul 20, 2007 5:43am
Quoting questtrader
any advice bro?
Check out my thread.
  • #20,417
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:47am Jul 20, 2007 5:47am
A nice euppy setup excellent R/R short 168.62 SL high +spread TP min 166.98
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #20,418
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:51am Jul 20, 2007 5:51am
analysis from synthesis bank... agrees with mine i.e. long GU long

Friday 20 July 2007


The picture is bullish.
Analysis name : Cable
Last close :

  1. <LI id=prices_last_close>2.05330
  2. 2.04950

Last status : in_progress , In progress.
Date : 20-07-2007 05:58:35
Current Title : Direct rise.
Directionnal : up, Bullish
Reward : good, Good
Abstract : The picture is bullish.
Strategy : We go long.
Scenario preference : Buy at 2.0500. Strengthen your line when 2.0570 bypassed for a target at 2.0645. Close the trade whenever 2.0450 is penetrated.
Current scenario preference :

  1. Signal :2.0500
  2. Conf : 2.0570
  3. Target : 2.0645
  4. Stop : 2.0450

http://secure.tradingfloor.com/analy...able~daily.gif

  • #20,419
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:52am Jul 20, 2007 5:52am
Quoting henrycarol
Cause your posts and analysis is from someone.

Either you are that person or you just copy from that person and post it here.

Btw nice pic. But I don't think that's you. LOL
we'll i've told in advanced that the analysis were not mine... all the analysis came from fxcm, alpari & synthesis bank... i'm only long gu long
  • #20,420
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:53am Jul 20, 2007 5:53am
Quoting dswk
I'm working in... so for sure, i'm sure.

Frenzied cable

"Momentum"
GBPUSD broke a 26-year high, staying above 2.01 for over a week. These
heights were confirmed by the Bank of England (BoE) hike on 5 July and
indications that they may need to hike again. The rebuilding of carry positions
hurt the USD and supported the high-yielding pound. The USD tends
to appreciate when investors are nervous and exit risky positions, hence it
is currently suffering. We find GBPUSD above 2.0 exaggerated, and while
the forces that pushed it there are still moving in full swing, sterling in particular could disappoint. The market looks for rates as high as 6.25% from
the BoE. As long the BoE and the economic data continue to suggest the
possibility of more hikes, the yield advantages will remain alluring.

"Fundamentals"
The GBP is overvalued, but there is sufficient momentum to maintain this
strength. We estimate equilibrium for GBPUSD at 1.68, however the
pound is benefiting from a strong British economy, a high yield, and a
hawkish central bank. We expect growth to slow both this year and next,
but this slowdown should be less severe than that in the US, and keep the
GBP from losing much of its value. The strong pound and high interest
rates will eventually take their toll on the domestic economy. While we do
not forecast further BoE hikes, there is a clear risk they hike further, and
then we expect a subsequent single cut in 2008. Even with the hiking cycle
over, the GBP will keep the yield advantages. The GBP is still attractive in a
portfolio as it offers high yields and only a gradual weakening path, in our
view.

Long term trend : Downward.
This is the kind of rhubarb that used to cause me big losses - CEO of Barclays saying buy BT if it EVER falls to £12 - mortgage your house and buy it all- it fell to £2 something and I finally learned that these people know NOTHING

That guy has moved on and is still spouting this stuff at the top of the profession... I could do better noting which direction the cows are standing in today ...
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