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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #840,021
  • Sep 30, 2024 4:46pm Sep 30, 2024 4:46pm
Ideally a move up before a big dump although I can’t see a drop below 130 for the foreseeable future
Insane in the Brain..
  • #840,022
  • Sep 30, 2024 6:28pm Sep 30, 2024 6:28pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} You flatter yourself , i doubt anyone here would follow someone else's trading blindly, most here have their own style and are looking to improve their skills by watching what others do. Anyway your detracting from the original post , i have no interest in who you follow and who's chart you like , creating value in our posts is surely a better alternative to just posting your pip count daily , are we supposed to be impressed. I post here because it passes the time while working and it might help others. By the way Here is the chart of the...
I have my own style.

But, they are good.

I have no competition with anyone.

My competition is how much I make today, tomorrow like that instead of arguing who is correct.

On your day, you are correct, many days you may be wrong.

So, let us focus on our own trading.

Count the money made at the end of the day.

Intraday only.
  • #840,023
  • Sep 30, 2024 9:20pm Sep 30, 2024 9:20pm
Quoting imjoshbrown
I'm shorting away from the high of last week, dealing desk having jammed longs on Friday are likely to drop the market in a swing low, releasing liquidity and lining their pockets on longs jammed at the end of last week. I'm wary about trading back towards peak formations that take several days to fully develop, as it indicates major players entering the market, subduing price from trending. I never recommend trading back toward a peak formation after they make a pullback, without a confluence of signals. It's all bout price, time, and volume. Buyers...
There’s a confluence of factors that have influenced my decision to go long now that price has completed for the day. As I mentioned earlier, I’m cautious about trading back toward peak formations after a pullback, especially when they take several days to develop. These structures often form when dealers exhaust their equity and begin to accumulate positions, swinging price to draw traders back into the market. Yesterday’s price action, however, has led me to reconsider the potential for a move higher.

Looking at the chart, the Asia session showed tight consolidation with minimal movement—about 30 pips. I tend to avoid trading in these phases since they often signal dealer accumulation, and we can’t see their books. Then unexpectedly, during the European session, there was a sharp breakout to the upside, around 40+ pips. Initially, I thought the dealing desk had already trapped a large volume of longs on Friday before the pullback and would drop the price to wipe them out. But the price action didn’t suggest enough accumulation yet. After all, when dealers jam a high volume of traders, they’re unlikely to allow price to return to those levels and let them break even—this isn’t charity!

By the time the American session opened, a 15, then 30-pip stop hunt to the downside extended outside Asia’s range, followed by a classic W formation, signaling a potential reversal. The dealing desk likely absorbed liquidity from trapped shorts while stop-hunting accumulated long positions from the Asia and Europe sessions. This action signaled to me that price was ready to move higher after absorbing the available liquidity.

On the second test of the stop-hunt low, I went long, anticipating that the market is setting up for a higher move after flushing out sellers and stopped-out buyers.

Happy trading!
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Discouragement is the language of the devil. Results over hype.
  • #840,024
  • Sep 30, 2024 9:21pm Sep 30, 2024 9:21pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Pivots. Pivots. Pivots. Monthly pivots dont care about valid and invalid supoorts. If October is going to be a bullish month then price shouldn't shoot below its pivot by more than 100-120 pips. Anything near 3100(if that's where the new pivot sits) is a buy if October is bullish. If the pivot fails and price plummets then sorry, bears will win. All in all price might be headed for 1.4000 but October's Pivots must get hit, or at least near it.
I got the logic. Pivot at 1.3270. That zone is on Red alert on my table never new its monthly.

Thanks .
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #840,025
  • Edited 11:03pm Sep 30, 2024 9:24pm | Edited 11:03pm
Long at ; 1.3385
Sl : 1.3370 (sl changed to 1.3360)
Tp : TBD
----------------------
add long at : 1.3373
Sl 1.3360
Tp : TBD
  • #840,026
  • Edited Oct 1, 2024 12:12am Sep 30, 2024 9:33pm | Edited Oct 1, 2024 12:12am
Very risky top range play still running , a very strong bull may run to next level up for both eurusd , and gbpusd and so usdx may likely breaks down to 2023 low breaks as well! Take care
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15015147
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #840,027
  • Sep 30, 2024 9:40pm Sep 30, 2024 9:40pm
Quoting Godspromise
{quote} so you believe in the coming weeks and days for October November it's going to be bearish how far do you believe the trend will be?
It looked to me like we should see a 300 pip drop on EUR/USD within the first 3 weeks of October to the larger bullish support trend line / supply/demand area around 1.086 based on the daily chart. I could be wrong, of course. This is the chart I showed you earlier with my TP around 1.086 (green line).
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But I closed all my short trades at around 1.1125 (roughly +45 pips avg for all short positions) because holding winning trades gets on my nerves, afraid of losing my gains.
Originally, I had a goal of maintaining +0.54% ROI per trading day, which comes out to +12.25% ROI per month and +300% per year.
I was right on course, going strong at an average of +0.56% per day for 17 trading days until today.
Now, after today's winnings, my total ROI for 18 days is +31.2%, which is average of +1.52% per trading day, +38.5% per month, and +4,900% per year if I keep that up.
I started with $200 USD, and now my account balance is $262 USD.
If I don't deposit or withdraw any funds, at this compounded rate of +38.5% per month, it would only take me 2 years and 2 months to reach $1 million USD since I started trading on September 5, 2024.
So I'm very happy with my progress and will give my nerves a break and go back to the slow and steady trading I was doing the last 3 weeks until I see another obviously high probability trade opportunity come up like today.
All I need is a trade like this once a month. Easy enough.
Have a good one, my friend!
You cannot fail if you never give up.
  • #840,028
  • Sep 30, 2024 9:40pm Sep 30, 2024 9:40pm
Holding for tonight don’t expect to wake up to a break below 1.11200 but is all good stop losses are used for a reason good night
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Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #840,029
  • Sep 30, 2024 11:00pm Sep 30, 2024 11:00pm
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} It looked to me like we should see a 300 pip drop on EUR/USD within the first 3 weeks of October to the larger bullish support trend line / supply/demand area around 1.086 based on the daily chart. I could be wrong, of course. This is the chart I showed you earlier with my TP around 1.086 (green line). {image} But I closed all my short trades at around 1.1125 (roughly +45 pips avg for all short positions) because holding winning trades gets on my nerves, afraid of losing my gains. Originally, I had a goal of maintaining +0.54% ROI per trading...
slow and steady that's so true
  • #840,030
  • Oct 1, 2024 12:10am Oct 1, 2024 12:10am
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JY 5' --- Let me Take my Prfts here and reverse to short. Thank you.

  • #840,031
  • Oct 1, 2024 1:07am Oct 1, 2024 1:07am
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yes yes yes
  • #840,032
  • Oct 1, 2024 1:32am Oct 1, 2024 1:32am
will see if that be so easy
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  • #840,033
  • Oct 1, 2024 2:12am Oct 1, 2024 2:12am
G/M, dragonfly doji/pinbar dly candle y/day after price met sellers in that prev minor dly sw hi zone = pot res to 3437, for 4th time, and JP's remarks did the rest. Today so far, Asian session mixed, and now a 1st downside b/o of the Asian lo in early London.Y/day's lo could be vulnerable? 4hr rangy, and 1hr rangy-bearish, Intraday bearish so far.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,034
  • Oct 1, 2024 2:23am Oct 1, 2024 2:23am
...so downside breaks of 1st the Asian lo then Y/day lo, and a current dly lo @ Dly S1 - which is @ top of a prev 1hr sw lo zone = pot supp. that extends down to 3334. This is coexistent with a prev 1hr sw hi zone = pot rbs which extends down to circa 3326.

Quick mention of the mthly - a 3rd consecutive bullish candle close y/day.

Mthly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,035
  • Oct 1, 2024 2:46am Oct 1, 2024 2:46am
We have an initial move to 1.3300 followed by a fall to 1.3140s in GU and toward 1.1030s with possible fall to 1.0850-70s in EU.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #840,036
  • Oct 1, 2024 2:47am Oct 1, 2024 2:47am
..a dip down to bottom of the prev 1hr sw lo zone = pot supp mentioned in last post, @ current dly lo. I wonder whether last wk's 3248 lo is vulnerable?
price presently trades under the Dly and Wkly pivots but above the new Mthly pivot @/around 3270, which is where Dly S3 is, and Wkly S1 just below it.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #840,037
  • Oct 1, 2024 2:58am Oct 1, 2024 2:58am
More fight for bear side now also ! Checking pa , anyway risk increased for both as well. Take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #840,038
  • Oct 1, 2024 3:00am Oct 1, 2024 3:00am
Was it data that opened the trapdoor?

one minute it was looking to tease 134 again the next it drops by 50 odd pips
Insane in the Brain..
  • #840,039
  • Oct 1, 2024 3:02am Oct 1, 2024 3:02am
Quoting imjoshbrown
{quote} There’s a confluence of factors that have influenced my decision to go long now that price has completed for the day. As I mentioned earlier, I’m cautious about trading back toward peak formations after a pullback, especially when they take several days to develop. These structures often form when dealers exhaust their equity and begin to accumulate positions, swinging price to draw traders back into the market. Yesterday’s price action, however, has led me to reconsider the potential for a move higher. Looking at the chart, the Asia session...
Whew!! Look at that nasty flash of equity to the downside! Longs like myself from yesterday got stopped out. Re-entered long off the 800EMA outside the 30-pip long, I anticipated this is the second leg of the W in a multi-day W formation developing. The market extended today's low of the day, but it's also trading above the high of the week in September, 1.33395. Price is chilling outside the zone but appears to have come to a halt. Let's see if we get a reversal!
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Discouragement is the language of the devil. Results over hype.
  • #840,040
  • Oct 1, 2024 3:04am Oct 1, 2024 3:04am
... 3332-18 is a 6 fib cluster. Does the prev 1hr/4hr/minor dly sw lo zone = pot supp that extends down to 3110 look vulnerable?

4hr below (with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic.)
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Trader with an Edge.
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