Cable Update (GBPUSD)

too rangy tops still , my sl though intact gbpusd but broken eurusd !not close not set be too in the mornig. watching , if running trade save or not ! now bounce target can be over 3072

US stocks having a better day so far

Daily doesn't suggest to me there is going to be much of a push to the downside because yesterdays candle is an indecision candle and traders are looking toward the all important US rate decision next week....

I believe the biggest player in FX is JP Morgan but I could be wrong.

During news events there are gaps in liquidity (everyone stops quoting) which is why it's hard to get filled on sizeable positions around news and price spikes as orders return back to the market. That's also why I never trade them as, in my opinion, it's a gamble without a huge SL to account for spikes in price.

So outside of news releases, yes there is either one big transaction or a series of smaller transactions moving the market as price only goes up or down once all the orders at a price level are filled. Simple order book dynamics.

The thing is FX is the BIGGEST market in the world. This idea that there is a cabal "controlling" the FX markets is not realistic IMO. Investment banks may account for a high percentage of the volume but I'm guessing so do central banks. Then big corps have their own treasury depts that also perform big transactions in the market.

So when we see what I often refer to as a "clean move down/up" against the overall trend, it's probably just one transaction in the market that some random participant needs to get done fast. There is usually high liquidity at Sup/Dem zones so that's why the transaction usually stops there. But it will ALWAYS stop once their transaction is complete, obviously.

Trend can develop for multiple reasons. Big macro events will affect prices so the big run up in Gold being perfectly correlated to rise in tensions in the middle east and the ongoing Russia conflict being a prime example. However when trading the way we do, having risk managed positions is key. Therefore TIMING becomes crucial. Another example is the JPY during trumps trade war with China days.

Therefore when analysing the market I literally just look at what the previous HTF candles are doing and assume that those NET participants are going to continue in the same direction. Pause candles after engulfs seem to be very common to generate LQ to continue the overall move.

All of this doesn't indicate some "cabal" controlling things. It's just the result of A SHIT LOAD of participants in the market. The LTF stuff we see are just the algorithms trying to maximise the LQ and minimise the transaction cost. You are right sometimes there are some HUGE transactions from one participant but this isn't common.

A lot of the participants in the market are just seeking to complete the transaction at the lowest possible average cost. They are not like us, looking to take speculative positions. This is where the biggest moves come from and what the main business of investment banks is.

Outside of big macro events it's almost impossible to isolate the reason for big moves in the market. It just is what is it is. Therefore IMO, it's best just to follow.
The big macro stuff I always keep at the back of my mind but it's always EXTREMELY simple stuff like War = Long Gold.

Lastly the news releases that seem to be discussed here a lot. IMO I find the results irrelevant. What tends to happen is results come out, price moves randomly then the news outlets try and fit the narrative around the move. This can be seen in instances where price moves one way in a huge manner then an hour later reverses the gains. The news outlets are just trying to find a narrative to explain the move but it doesn't actually mean what they are saying is correct. They are just fitting the narrative to the movement of price. I went through a phase of studying news but didn't find any value in it and on these whipsaw moves saw how much BS was in the news.

Interested to hear from anyone who disagrees with anything I said!

don't understand your sell..explain please

I agree with everything you wrote. Very well said...

Looks like the bull has woken up… 131 could be next

watching if market be happy and calm down soon !if so price may back to 3060 soon !

I think you could be right. We have one day every week where it goes against the trend to correct a bit. The only thing is tomorrow there’s nothing from a data perspective to push this down.

Good explanation. However, that's the official position of things and in this world, that something is official doesn't mean it's entirely true.

Unrealistic doesnt mean impossible. People have been jailed, banks have been fined billions for market manipulation. Regulations are there to prevent it from happenning.

It doesn't need data. If Asia sells tonight, it will most likely sell all day tomorrow.

let’s hope so.. might be a slow limited drop though.

yeah market intentionally bounce against strong positive US news. sharp raise may followed by sharp fall as well . no important data next , then price action standard likely play .if breaks down 3067 and test 3060 today , then it can easily breaks down 3044 to enter then channel down , to 3031 and low ! lets see

similarly eurusd breaks 1026 then likely test 1007 as pullback tl test , similar gbpusd 3044 and at those levels bull may at very sharp edge to run again !

1592 pips

Mf !!!!

34 pts , when i am on the wrong side

Do i need to know why it bounced ?

It bounced.

All in green

...well the clues were there re the move up, - before the U.s PPi data, we had a double bottom @ the Asian lo/current dly lo, (which stayed above y/day's lo,) 2hr showing strength re fractal prints, a HL on 4hr, Price rose from that 1hr double bottom, then pulled back to a then 38.2% fib, asc 1hr t/line (bottom of the rising wedge without a break to the downside of it as you might expect from a rising wedge,) and top of a prev 1hr sw lo zone = pot supp, confluence, and U.s ppi etc data just added to it after the initial knee-jerk messing around after the data.

Price @ the current dly hi has given back over 76.4% of y/day's fall.

1hr below