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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #19,541
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:10am Jul 18, 2007 4:10am
Quoting zamans98
16:49 FF members are looking high and low for Soros Jr, longing for 2.100 for end of this week and 2.0700 by today. It has been reported that a lot newbie get caught and hit SL few minutes ago.

I'm the newbie...
  • #19,542
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:10am Jul 18, 2007 4:10am
Quoting soros_junior
don't worry guys... journey upwards has just resumed... we'll be seeing 2.0600 tonite
Did ur father dumped u since u were kid?? if not, why are u supporting GBP?
  • #19,543
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:12am Jul 18, 2007 4:12am
Quoting soros_junior
don't worry guys... journey upwards has just resumed... we'll be seeing 2.0600 tonite
i'm sure
  • #19,544
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:20am Jul 18, 2007 4:20am
Quoting SeekingLight
Okay, since I can't believe what sort of fluff people are tossing around, here's my as always super simplified view of the world:

Central Bank Rates


NZD 8.00%
AUD 6.25%
GBP 5.75%
USD 5.25%
CAD 4.50%
EUR 4.00%
CHF 2.50%
JPY 0.50%
(Source: DailyFX)

Now.

What is 5.75 - 5.25 = ?

Do you want to MAKE the difference or do you want to LOSE it?

Make money or pay money?

Which side is it better to be on?

Now move on to carry trades:
Against CHF: 5.75 - 2.5 = your interest earned

Against JPY: 5.75 - 0.5 = your interest earned

Would you rather make or pay the interest day in day out?

Do you think banks that hold these positions for weeks, months, years want to lose or make money?

This is all the fundamental information you need for the most part +- the chance of these numbers changing in the foreseeable future.
SeekingLight,

Thanks for one of the few sound pieces of info around here...sometimes I think that Borat has assumed mutiple personalities in this thread...entertaining but pure fluff.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #19,545
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:21am Jul 18, 2007 4:21am
Quoting chaoz
Did ur father dumped u since u were kid?? if not, why are u supporting GBP?

Humdeedum.

Top resistance => support.

Let's see if we can hold it or fall back in (which is possible/likely, but not a must)


Warning, Picture shows extreeeemely strong downtrend(I can understand why Hector stopped bothering):
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #19,546
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:37am Jul 18, 2007 4:37am
Quoting pipology-101
wow, finaly some one with wisom.

Thanx, and this is why i like ff...

i am long cable...even if i loose...i had a sound reason...not to mention the momentum and what you just explained...etc etc..

big boys have invested in gbp for sake of differentials and carry trade.....
not to mention that fed will not raise rates (most likly not for lots of reasons housing etc...stocks ...)
fed most likley give out unchanged tone
good advise.

even if it is wrong, it is the best reason i have so far heard...other than technical stuf
I agree on what you said. But don't you think that the carry trade has a limits too and is very risky? Don't you think that the Cable went up to the sky high and need some correction! and if there some weak fundamentals then the BOE will cut interest rate.. UK is a small economy compared to the bigest economy in the world...
  • #19,547
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:38am Jul 18, 2007 4:38am
Closed my partial short from 530. let the rest ride it down o maybe it will back up
  • #19,548
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:42am Jul 18, 2007 4:42am
GU is going down?
  • #19,549
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:45am Jul 18, 2007 4:45am
nope... with bad usd news tonite it's definitely going up
  • #19,550
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:48am Jul 18, 2007 4:48am
I am also expecting bad US releases today... Though this market is crazy and therefore bad US releases might just say that Ok the dollar will weaken more, but we will make a correction first...

I am expecting new highs in GU and EU but not sure if its gonna be today or next week.
  • #19,551
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:53am Jul 18, 2007 4:53am
Quoting ndvt241
I agree on what you said. But don't you think that the carry trade has a limits too and is very risky? Don't you think that the Cable went up to the sky high and need some correction! and if there some weak fundamentals then the BOE will cut interest rate.. UK is a small economy compared to the bigest economy in the world...
That's all just theoretical contemplation. Trade what you see, not what you think.

Could someone from this thread put that in their signature (that's where I saw that originally) so I don't have to quote it every day?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #19,552
  • Edited 5:10am Jul 18, 2007 4:57am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting soros_junior
nope... with bad usd news tonite it's definitely going up
How many times the cable went up because of the same bad news!
So far it climbed about 400 pips because of same reason ; "the FED may cut its interest rate" Thats why some correction is needed
  • #19,553
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:06am Jul 18, 2007 5:06am
daily rsi above 80 --> reversal sign

(2.0130-1.9183) + 1.9662 around at 2.0570.

So;

time to correction.... GBPUSD short till 2.0050-2.0080
  • #19,554
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:09am Jul 18, 2007 5:09am
Quoting kiranu
daily rsi above 80 --> reversal sign

(2.0130-1.9183) + 1.9662 around at 2.0570.

So;

time to correction.... GBPUSD short till 2.0050-2.0080
also indicate strong trend...buy on weakness, looking to park some long at 400.
  • #19,555
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:11am Jul 18, 2007 5:11am
any one notice a gap on the thirty minute chart? I would post the chart but its not cooperating
  • #19,556
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:12am Jul 18, 2007 5:12am
Some times i wonder if the ppl take the time to read at least the important part of the minutes.

They said... literally like this...

We raised rates to avoid rising more in the next months.

We are not thinking right now about the path for next rates.

If no one believes this... ok... buy.

If you believe... sell.

What's with the indecision after 2 hours?
  • #19,557
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:12am Jul 18, 2007 5:12am
Quoting kiranu
daily rsi above 80 --> reversal sign

(2.0130-1.9183) + 1.9662 around at 2.0570.

So;

time to correction.... GBPUSD short till 2.0050-2.0080
rsi has been above 80 since few weeks ago but GU still going up...
  • #19,558
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:14am Jul 18, 2007 5:14am
Seeking light should be listen with respect, Henrys with caution (he is just playing small lots on shorts, trust me ...)...500 on defensive if holds, we ARE gona see the 2.11...trust me thats forex....
GBP/USD is becoming a CARRY TRADE (more likely HAS BECOME), something that CARRY UR MONEY AWAY... or not offcourse....6:3 is better then 5 :4
that means 6.0 + might be on the table, doesnt it?...dont listen to me ....
im just playing smart guy....long gold, long, long oil, long.
its just money
  • #19,559
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:17am Jul 18, 2007 5:17am
I expect the weak data from US today, but lot of significants points to the correction first - 2.0431/2.0409 zone.

GMaster
  • #19,560
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:17am Jul 18, 2007 5:17am
Quoting Warper
Some times i wonder if the ppl take the time to read at least the important part of the minutes.

They said... literally like this...

We raised rates to avoid rising more in the next months.

We are not thinking right now about the path for next rates.

If no one believes this... ok... buy.

If you believe... sell.

What's with the indecision after 2 hours?
While im biased for a correction here...raising rates also practically sealed the fact that GBP will only continue to trend up till year end or when rates are revised again.
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