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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #341
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:45pm Jul 17, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting Protei
Maybe you can post your trades with false signals, becos all situations that i saw here were profitable.... we will discuss them and try to find a solution... i will also post mine. Becos i also have wrong entrys.
OK I will.

I doubt there is a trader without losses
  • #342
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:49pm Jul 17, 2007 2:49pm
But amount of losses should be less than amount of profits
  • #343
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:58pm Jul 17, 2007 2:58pm
Here is a 420 loss from today.

I've entered on 2 green AC signal neglecting long green series in AO.

Fortunately after Bearish DBar I've tighten the stops hit on the next session.

Here is a question: Should I close on close of DBar (and reverse?) or just tighten the stops and look next move?

Now you see to pending orders - Bullish Fractal and Bearish DBar
Attached Image
  • #344
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:59pm Jul 17, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting Protei
But amount of losses should be less than amount of profits
Absolutely!
  • #345
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:59pm Jul 17, 2007 2:59pm
Thnx for such a clear and simple method.

Do you think it is ok to take this trade ... if mkt trades below divergent bar..


I hope I have not missed something on this chart

On one hand AO & AC are green.... that means price is accelerating
and momentum is also strong.... And we are trying to go short.

But on the other hand this could be begining of new move or
maybe a correction...

Your Suggestions and View is Important to me......


regards

tej



Quoting isto
This seems correct approach to me too.



Go back to beginning of the move (where price is in or near the MAs) and draw line below the lows for up trend and above the highs for down trend

I've attached a sample.
  • #346
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:06pm Jul 17, 2007 3:06pm
And here is a brief info for today 17 July 2007

Inserted Code
canceled orders 9
total trades 18
short 5
long 13
loss [b][color="Red"]1 700.54[/color][/b]
profit [b]4 238.50[/b]
  • #347
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:09pm Jul 17, 2007 3:09pm
Well you made everything right.... like Bill say... but i think you tightened your stops too close.

I will put stop near 1.3730, becos as i can see chart dont have any new information. So the price will fluctuate near 1.3735 (where speed of bars began to decrees) and 1.3780. Of course this is risky.. and you might loose some money... but in some cases you might get profit

Also another point for growth is that there is no divergence on AO... so price might grow further.
Attached Image
  • #348
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:09pm Jul 17, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting tej
Do you think it is ok to take this trade ... if mkt trades below divergent bar..
I do not want to advise because this means to predict what will happen next. I can not.

here is a sample with my decision on some sort of similar (not much though) situation - post #343
  • #349
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:12pm Jul 17, 2007 3:12pm
Hey Isto! you are on a plus side... and made nearly $2500... This is very good for 1 day! I wish all my days was like yours.
  • #350
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:15pm Jul 17, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting Protei
Well you made everything right.... like Bill say... but i think you tightened your stops too close.

I will put stop near 1.3730, becos as i can see chart dont have any new information. So the price will fluctuate near 1.3735 (where speed of bars began to decrees) and 1.3780. Of course this is risky.. and you might loose some money... but in some cases you might get profit

Also another point for growth is that there is no divergence on AO... so price might grow further.
yes you're right - I've tighten the stops too much perhaps.

I hesitated somewhat because of the arguments you've mentioned but two of them prevailed:

 

  1. too long green AO sequence
  2. Bearish Divergent Bar


and the profit I've got from the move so far...

  • #351
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:16pm Jul 17, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting Protei
Hey Isto! you are on a plus side... and made nearly $2500... This is very good for 1 day! I wish all my days was like yours.
I wish it to you too .
  • #352
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:21pm Jul 17, 2007 3:21pm
Well i think the rule is: Think 3 times before accepting signal, when AO is green for a long time and AC is going down.

Actually Isto in such a situation like yours but on a down trend i also tightened stops too close and got profit.... you can see it on charts that i posted recently...

On my charts the price was consolidating near level 35.35... and there were no information for 2 hours... but then came information (it was statistic from the USA PPI core etc....) and price went up....

And also another thing.... in your current situation i think you should also open short position.... but stop (if price goes higher) with inverting you should put little bit higher than bearish DBar
  • #353
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:34pm Jul 17, 2007 3:34pm
Hi isto,


Quoting isto
Here is a question: Should I close on close of DBar (and reverse?) or just tighten the stops and look next move?
First : Pls understand , I am not trying to comment on your trade
But i am trying to learn !

I would like to share my viewpoint. Whenever I have faced such difficult situation. I try to resolve it with the help of Rules of the System.

And if i still have any doubt. I prefer to resolve it with Risk / Reward ratio
I believe in any trade our potential Reward should be at least 2 time the risk we are taking. [ Bcoz our Main Aim is to Make Money ]

In the above case, I can think of following 4 scenario's

i) There has been a vertical rally... mkt may undergo some correction may be upto 23.6% or 38.2% fib ratio. Since we are getting an
entry near the top.... our risk/reward ratio should be better than 1:2

ii) This might the begining of a new down trend.... [ V could hope for bigger profits ]

iii) Market might just be taking rest and it may remain sideways and resume it's journey upward, then we will get an entry on the break of bullish fractal.

iv) Worst possible case.... mkt may hit both the triggers, first down, then up
and finally go down...

So, I would prefer to go short...... bcoz risk/reward is favourable....

This is my personal view.... You can correct me wherever I am wrong..

regards

tej
  • #354
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:49pm Jul 17, 2007 3:49pm
Cool... Really Nice Day .... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
My Best Wishes 4 u ....

regards
tej

Quoting isto
And here is a brief info for today 17 July 2007

Inserted Code
canceled orders 9
total trades 18
short 5
long 13
loss [b][color=red]1 700.54[/color][/b]
profit [b]4 238.50[/b]
  • #355
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:58pm Jul 17, 2007 3:58pm
Hi Protei,


Nice tip for placing stops to avoid whipsaws...

Lets give stops some breathing space.... so that they are not hit
by normal volatility of the market...

But on the flip side.... [ if stops are hit... we shall lose more......]


regards

tej


Quoting Protei
Well you made everything right.... like Bill say... but i think you tightened your stops too close.


I will put stop near 1.3730, becos as i can see chart dont have any new information. So the price will fluctuate near 1.3735 (where speed of bars began to decrees) and 1.3780. Of course this is risky.. and you might loose some money... but in some cases you might get profit

Also another point for growth is that there is no divergence on AO... so price might grow further.
  • #356
  • Jul 17, 2007 11:32pm Jul 17, 2007 11:32pm
Tej.... yup you are right... Putting stop little bit far of course will get your profit down in some situations... but on the other hand it might help you continue going with trend after market will have a short rest. So there are many factors that should be taken on account
  • #357
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:08am Jul 18, 2007 2:08am
Hi tej

I'll try to answer your questions
Quoting tej
Pls understand , I am not trying to comment on your trade
But i am trying to learn !
learnign is one of the action that I admire very much

As to comments - everybody is free to comment whichever aspect of the thread (I prefer positive though )

Quoting tej
I prefer to resolve it with Risk / Reward ratio
I believe in any trade our potential Reward should be at least 2 time the risk we are taking. [ Bcoz our Main Aim is to Make Money ]
I think that Risk / Reword could be considered after the trade is closed. Trying to calculate any ratio during the trade, or even before to enter it is waste of time (this is my point of view).

Because it you do, this means that you can predict what the market will do, where will go, how long will move.

 

  1. If you can - you do not need any system.
  2. If you cannot - this is loss of time.


Shure the main purpose is to make money... These are rules for - we are blind for the future (at least some of us ) - so rules tell us:
if this and this happen (rule), act so and so (obey the rules)

Rules are created (usually) after long observation and reflect some repleating behaviour of the price under definite conditions.

But when market is bored it changes this repleating behaviour and this is why it does not work 100% of the time. (let's say some news is comming on)
Then traders have to face some losses...

Quoting tej
In the above case, I can think of following 4 scenario's

i) ...a vertical rally...
ii) ...a new down trend...
iii) ... sideways...
iv) .... mkt may hit both the triggers, first down, then up...

So, I would prefer to go short......
The last sentance is totally wrong! (sorry)

I prefer to get profit without risk at all or without trading at all

But this is not up to our preferences...

Here the preferences are issued and done my the market.

We have two choices:

  1. be prepared whatever market decides
  2. don't be prepared (act under personal preferences)


If we act according our preferences and do not care about market's guess who will be the winner and who the looser?

you've listed some opportunities (correct or wrong, it doesn't matter here, now). Be prepared for each of them. This way your chances (to win oe lose) increase from one to four (as you've listed them).

Sorry for the long post, I believe all these are important...

  • #358
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:37am Jul 18, 2007 2:37am
Absolutely agree with Isto. And here is an example. When i began to trade using Bill's system i was thinking aha..... market will go here so i will put stop buy here and i'll be rich... but market went down... where i had no signals at all... i was really ashmed... how this can happen... Now i am making both signals for both situations. And trying not to look in the future, but sometimes it is really hard to make
  • #359
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:09am Jul 18, 2007 3:09am
Here is a setup I've missed.

Bullish divergent bar was so small that I've missed it. I was focused on Bullish Fractal and dodn't place sell order...

Just now I noticed Head & Shoulders formation. Acceleration is down last few sessions and let's see what will happen on 167.75 support...
Attached Image
  • #360
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:14am Jul 18, 2007 3:14am
Isto have you put stop sell lower that 167.75?
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