Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

Aha i think you are right... becos now price is going lower and lower.... and AC turned to red zone... and also momentum is going down.... So i hope i will get some profit from this position http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
As i understood DB should have lower low than previous bar and should close in bottom half... thats right? (for Bullish DB)


Also another question... Where should i put stop order? maybe near fibbo levels?....

And another question... if we look on that chart again previous high... Was it DB or not?

Tommy_C

And also you said that there is a good angle.... How did you find that? becos if i put line through the highs of bars and line showing the way of red line the will be nearly the same.... could you please draw the angle on my picture... of course if it is possible

In brief:

To have a Bearis divergent bar you need

 

1. significant distance from lines (red)
2. acute angle
3. price to close inot the lower half of the bar

Look at the chart we have all the three and sonn after the price is diving

Thanks everybody for the explanation!

Here what i draw by my self... could you please check it
And also any recomendations for current situation on the chart. Currently i am in short possition from 36.14.
I think that AO is in red condition for too long... and here might be a throw up.... or maybe i am wrong? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

In general this setup seems suspicious to me nevetheless DBars seem valid...

Look at the Alligator. I cound 35 session intertwining lines. This is anything but trend.

It is obvious that market makes attemts to get out for thi balance state is not acceptable any more, but stil "Alligator is sleeping".

Divergent bar might appear on a trend only - this whole method is about the trend only. Signals out of a trend must be ignored.

So all this fractals and Dbars on this chart at this moment are only signal showing that something is on its way to happen but this "thing" is not out and it is not clear what will be - Bull or Bear.

So I'd stay away for this moment...

Thanks Isto, but here another 5 cents.

On the chart i see double top... Also i checked daily chart and it seems that we are writing right shoulder....

And also another question... if i stay out of market, when should i enter? after hitting fractal? but it might be far too long... becos market will make a fast move....


BTW i use 1 hour time frame

Well Protei,

I doubt anybody could answer your questions. Bill Williams few times underlined in his books that "every trader trades his own believs".

On the same chart two traders see two different lanscapes and got different signals.

I mentioned mine: For me basic is the trend because this is a trend method. So first we have to have trend; then we have to have fractal and when it is break in trend direction we enter.

Yes, you could miss some move, yes it might be too late, but think about which is first:

 

1. to enter the trade
2. to win the trade

It doesn't matter for me whether there is move or not. I cannot guess where the price will be, or how long it will move, or whatever else concirning the future.

I can only consider the signals that are already on the chart and to decide: Are they enough for me to enter, what is the risk, is it acceptable for me.

If I answer yes I put stop order. If not - look around for the next move...

Here is another sample that I'm sure will divide traders at leat into two groups.

What should trader do next? Sell or Buy?

My oppinion is you should sell lower than Dbars... AO and AC are green for sometime... so they probably will change in the nearest future

Hi Isto,

Thanks for the detailed reply.

Can you explain the rules for 3AO signals... ?

regards

tej

Hi Tommy,

Thanks for taking part in the discussion regarding Zone Signals....
Such discussions help everyone in the group...


regards

tej

Tej, i think 3AO signal is ... mm how to say.... Ok for example: we have an up trend and AO is below zero, but it is going up. So after 3 green Bars of AO below zero we should put a stop buy higher than previous bar.... I think thats it http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif

Hi tej
3AO are 3 green acceleration bars below zero on a down trend, or
3 red acceleration bars above zero on a up trend.

This is a signal that trend is slowing and might turn around so it is used to enter in the opposite direction...

Hey Isto

I have a question about your diagram from http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=286

Here we can see a bullish bar... but alligator is nearly closed.... so this Dbar must be fault.... or i am wrong.. becos on my chart situation is the same.

EURNZD Dbar setup is forming.

Comments are available here.

OK Protei,

First I'd like to confess

1. I'm not a guru, neither I pretend to be.
2. I cannot predict the future.
3. As I said everyone trades setups he/she believes to see on chart

Here I'll try to answer your question.

I've commented what I see and my believes what will happen there.

As for mine you quote - I see few differences

on mine:

1. last 3 sessions lines are opening widely
2. last bar breaks a trippe top or head & shoulders (whichone you prefer)

At your chart:

1. price few times failed to tale previous fractals on 10 12:00 and 12 12:00
2. If the bullish DBar behind 12 12:00 was strong enough I should take bearish fractal at leat at 12 12:00.
3. If you look back you'll see that this 36.00 level is strong support/resistance level because almost all bars on the chart are gravitating around.
4. Neither spike succeed breaking that level. There is some move but price all the time returns to 36.00.

This shows to me (this is my own belief) that something happens and there is no more (probably) consensus about this balance level (36). But on this chart I cannot see definitely which why the price is going to follow.

I (personally) need another signal that will confirm that price is taking Bear or Bull path.

So okey... lets see how the situation turns on my chart.

Today this blue chip continued to go down. And price at this time is 35.6
So my ideas for this moment... Fibbo level 0.764 was broken. And maybe next target is 1 Who knows.... But! AO is red for a long time and AC is red also for 3 sessions.. so the situation is really not good... and soon we might get a Bullish DB. So i think i will tighten my stop losses... maybe i will put them on 35.75.... in this case i will be in a profit. becos 2 lots from 36.2 and 4 lots from 35.9 and 1 lot 35.65

Thanks Isto! I think you are right...
but today i was lucky and price finally got fractal 35.86.... so price is going down.. and i hope to see it somewhere near last bottom

Also i agree that we see usually different things... but somehow we could find a right decision together

Ok, Thanks for help! i will write later how the situation turns

Here is what happens with AUDJPY (post #308).

Bearish Divergent Bars are too weak - there is almost no angle. Acceleration and Momentum are up.

So for the moment there is not signs for reverse...

Isto 1 more question about your last chart. Some of bearish DBars look strange... becos they closed in the top half.... is this correct? becos i thought that Bearish DBar should close in bottom half

Ah Isto sorry... i was wrong... now i see that it is Bearish DBars....