Cable Correction Review | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable, MACD + RSI Divergence Wassssssup? 10 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Cable Correction Review
Exit Attachments

Cable Correction Review

  • #21
  • Jul 15, 2007 8:51pm Jul 15, 2007 8:51pm
Just two things.

If anyone is wondering why i didn't talked about indicators, it's very simple...

Who have studied lagging indicators, who understood them, how they work, what their results mean... Do not need them after a while.

I'm not trying to sound like a wise guy but believe me, anyone who can't look at a chart and understand what the MAs are telling or even worst, who can't look at a MACD and understand what does a divergence looks like in the candles, simply will never suceed just by trusting on indicators.

A divergence for example, is simply extensions in the price getting smaller.

Price retrace... price extends/rise 100 pips... Price retrace... Price extends/rise 60 pips... price retrace... price extends/rise 40 pips.

Price is rising in a whole, but the macd peaks(extensions tops) are getting smaller.
Still rising, less strengh in every rise. Thats divergence.. how hard is that to understand without looking at macd?




Regarding top interpretations, i still think that many ppl are still confused on this point.

Yes.. there are a few tops right now, and the probability is that the price might retrace. But what im trying to say is that, i only see hourly tops... not major h4 tops. Hourly tops end up in retraces(that we usualy wait to buy). Four Hour Chart tops end up in corrections (that we short). Big diference. If we look at this amazing rally, even with all of the strenght we saw, we can spot spikes acting as hourly tops and nothing big happened.

So, until i see the price droping at least 50 pips from the previous top without getting back immediately..

..In that moment i will call it another top. I will not call it because it looks like it will be.





Anyway.. the thread is not about knowing if there is a correction coming this week. Is about knowing what to do if it really start. I think i made my point.

Thanks.
  • #22
  • Jul 15, 2007 11:34pm Jul 15, 2007 11:34pm
good commentary warper... IMHO, cable will retrace a bit once it reached 2.1000... then it will continue with another impulsive wave, huge one, until it reached 3.0000...
  • #23
  • Jul 16, 2007 12:33am Jul 16, 2007 12:33am
Quoting Warper
Just two things.

....
Still rising, less strengh in every rise. Thats divergence.. how hard is that to understand without looking at macd?
......
Thanks.
is that possible??

If I attach a chart now with knowing divergence regular or hidden and delete the indi and lines from it, can u spot the divergence??
  • #24
  • Jul 16, 2007 1:03am Jul 16, 2007 1:03am
Quoting benssol
is that possible??

If I attach a chart now with knowing divergence regular or hidden and delete the indi and lines from it, can u spot the divergence??
in cable case, i don't see any divergence... i'm seeing impulsive waves coming without ending.... open more long for more profits
  • #25
  • Jul 16, 2007 1:13am Jul 16, 2007 1:13am
Quoting soros_junior
good commentary warper... IMHO, cable will retrace a bit once it reached 2.1000... then it will continue with another impulsive wave, huge one, until it reached 3.0000...
and the UK will be unable to export ANYTHING and their economy will suffer greatly. Yes, you've thought this through and added a wealth of technical expertise.

What, with quotes like "no way that will happen" and "why would it do that" and "the dollar is doomed forever".

Yes, brilliant. You add much to any conversation. Does your mommy know that you're playing with the computer in the basement? Maybe you should get out in the sun for at least 10 min a day.
  • #26
  • Jul 16, 2007 1:15am Jul 16, 2007 1:15am
Quoting cesarnc
If anyone know what is he on, please fedex me 1kg
Speak in English.

Send me 2.200 pounds instead! :
  • #27
  • Jul 16, 2007 2:14am Jul 16, 2007 2:14am
Quoting 1Sundevil
and the UK will be unable to export ANYTHING and their economy will suffer greatly. Yes, you've thought this through and added a wealth of technical expertise.

What, with quotes like "no way that will happen" and "why would it do that" and "the dollar is doomed forever".

Yes, brilliant. You add much to any conversation. Does your mommy know that you're playing with the computer in the basement? Maybe you should get out in the sun for at least 10 min a day.
just wait and see... & don't regret later on...
  • #28
  • Jul 16, 2007 2:21am Jul 16, 2007 2:21am
[quote=1Sundevil;1495520]and the UK will be unable to export ANYTHING and their economy will suffer greatly. Yes, you've thought this through and added a wealth of technical expertise.
[quote]

UK can export to other countries but not to US
  • #29
  • Jul 16, 2007 2:24am Jul 16, 2007 2:24am
[quote=soros_junior;1495574][quote=1Sundevil;1495520]and the UK will be unable to export ANYTHING and their economy will suffer greatly. Yes, you've thought this through and added a wealth of technical expertise.
Quote

UK can export to other countries but not to US
Yes, the largest comsumer nation in the world. Of course they want to stay out of here.

Right now 70% of retail traders are short the GBP/USD.

The UK government is already feeling the pinch of their strong currency.

Many in the UK are saying that it needs to go back to the 1.75 area in order to start benefitting the UK again.

To be honest, I took some pips on the way up and now I'm staying away from this pair until it starts to drop significantly.
  • #30
  • Jul 16, 2007 2:30am Jul 16, 2007 2:30am
[quote=1Sundevil;1495578][quote=soros_junior;1495574]
Quoting 1Sundevil
and the UK will be unable to export ANYTHING and their economy will suffer greatly. Yes, you've thought this through and added a wealth of technical expertise.

Yes, the largest comsumer nation in the world. Of course they want to stay out of here.

Right now 70% of retail traders are short the GBP/USD.

The UK government is already feeling the pinch of their strong currency.

Many in the UK are saying that it needs to go back to the 1.75 area in order to start benefitting the UK again.

To be honest, I took some pips on the way up and now I'm staying away from this pair until it starts to drop significantly.
the largest consumer nation in the world is now belongs to asia & middle east... u can export more to china than usa... think about it
  • #31
  • Jul 16, 2007 8:39am Jul 16, 2007 8:39am
Quoting benssol
is that possible??

If I attach a chart now with knowing divergence regular or hidden and delete the indi and lines from it, can u spot the divergence??
Please be my guest.. But let me tell you something..

If i can't spot it with my eyes... i'm sure its not the kind of divergence that starts major corrections.

4 hour chart divergences or above, do you have one? If you do... obviously post a chart with a good prespective from the trend. Only focused on the start until the end.

And by the way.. what do you want me to spot? MACD or RSI divergence?

RSI and Macd divergences are completly diferent, yet many ppl treat them like equal things.


PS: regarging the tops thing... what are we seeing today on cable? A follow-through not a double top.. like many tried to call.
  • #32
  • Jul 16, 2007 9:11am Jul 16, 2007 9:11am
Quoting Warper
Just two things.

If anyone is wondering why i didn't talked about indicators, it's very simple...

Who have studied lagging indicators, who understood them, how they work, what their results mean... Do not need them after a while.

I'm not trying to sound like a wise guy but believe me, anyone who can't look at a chart and understand what the MAs are telling or even worst, who can't look at a MACD and understand what does a divergence looks like in the candles, simply will never suceed just by trusting on indicators.

A divergence for example, is simply extensions in the price getting smaller.

Price retrace... price extends/rise 100 pips... Price retrace... Price extends/rise 60 pips... price retrace... price extends/rise 40 pips.

Price is rising in a whole, but the macd peaks(extensions tops) are getting smaller.
Still rising, less strengh in every rise. Thats divergence.. how hard is that to understand without looking at macd?




Regarding top interpretations, i still think that many ppl are still confused on this point.

Yes.. there are a few tops right now, and the probability is that the price might retrace. But what im trying to say is that, i only see hourly tops... not major h4 tops. Hourly tops end up in retraces(that we usualy wait to buy). Four Hour Chart tops end up in corrections (that we short). Big diference. If we look at this amazing rally, even with all of the strenght we saw, we can spot spikes acting as hourly tops and nothing big happened.

So, until i see the price droping at least 50 pips from the previous top without getting back immediately..

..In that moment i will call it another top. I will not call it because it looks like it will be.





Anyway.. the thread is not about knowing if there is a correction coming this week. Is about knowing what to do if it really start. I think i made my point.

Thanks.
This explanation is very good, for those, like me has so much difficulties to "read" graphics and indicators. I try to study and understand but sometimes it´s very confused. Does nobody be a teacher and open a threat to speak about to read indicators with graphic to exemple? For what i read for several threats i think that there are many pepople, like me.

I let the sugestion and ahead i thanks
  • #33
  • Edited 10:24am Jul 16, 2007 9:51am | Edited 10:24am
Here it is

this is 4H chart that has 5 regular divergences and 8 hidden
and they can be spotted with OsMA or MACD

I dont understand meaning of "its not the kind of divergence that starts major corrections"

but you said in the first post " A divergence is simply extensions in the price getting smaller", " Still rising, less strength in every rise. Thats divergence"

and this simple definition can be applied to any divergence

and the chart link if it small here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yyyyy.jpg Size: 13 KB
  • #34
  • Jul 16, 2007 5:16pm Jul 16, 2007 5:16pm
Before i say something about the chart, there are 2 points i want to clarify.

First is about the relativity of divergences. Two macds with different inputs might show diferent results. So... what is the good result?

The answer is ... the result that doesn't change on inputs at all. Our observation.


Second is about complexity of trading strategies.

When i observe a chart looking for "divergence" i do not look trying to find divergence at every candle like you seem to do.

I look for a major divergence. Or i combine 2 or 3 that i see, and say.. "there is divergence here". I dont look for 5 or 8. I guess my trading is as simple as it should be.

But anyway. Please take some time to look at this charts.

And try to interpret my drawing.

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2327/11614616fc1.jpg


Take a look at the red line at "1" and then the red line at "2".

The decline from the bottoms (extensions) is getting more horizontal.

Take a look at the price drop distance from "1" and from "2".

"2" have a smaller drop yet corresponds to "B" section who took more time to do the same or less.

Now take look at the Macd... "B" section corresponds to divergence because it was weaker than "A".

"A" section doesnt have divergence because has the same power than the area right before.

--
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2185/d2nz3.jpg

Again another example of inclination. Inclination getting more horizontal and the macd getting divergence.

If you can notice... again the price takes more time to do the same or less than the area before. Divergence in that area of MACD.

-*----

Now finally.. your chart.

As i said before.. i dont look for a thousand divergences lol. I can spot the important ones. And based on the charts i showed you before i guess you can try to figure this out.

As you see... price droping at all time. Trend in place... but take a look at "B"

Do you really need the MACD to understand what is happening there?

Same time... smaller drop. I would say.. divergence?


http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/9881/d3cy2.jpg
  • #35
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:42am Jul 17, 2007 3:42am
Thank you warper
I'm printing this page now to keep it as reference
great discuss

but
what I want to say is: (and I'm sure you know this but I will say it to clarify my point)

there are two types:-
1.Regular Divergence: or they name it classic divergence,
and this type exactly is what you are show in the charts,

for example prices made higher highs (or lower lows) and the indi didn't

>> this type of divergence as you say means that :the prior trend will reverse or a major correction, consolidation period will coming

2.Hidden Divergence: the other type
and in it indicator made higher highs (or lower lows) and the prices didn't

>> this type of divergence means that: the prior trend will continue and the last move was just a small correction

NOW some points:
-to spot any of this divergences you dont need to look at every bar

-looking only for major regular divergences is not simple and is very dangerous, you will be looking for an end for the trend or correction

so while you look for it you just looking for entry against the trend

-looking for the other type is better and safer cause you just look for entry to add to your positions in the way of the trend

-looking for the two is more better and with the time, I'm able to take the majority of the divergences I'm see

my rule is:
"divergence always works with me except the major one that you talk about"

for real example look at G/J daily or weekly chart
with your discussion there are a great classic divergence with min target 239
price go from 220 to 240 in period from 5/3 - 15/4
then go from 240 to 248 in period from 15/4 - 15/7

can any wise close his positions or go against this trend even if he saw a sign?

even if you say I wont go with the correction, I will wait until it completed and then enter the market with the trend!!

but with the major divergence you talk about you will wait long time

-when I ask you is it possible to see divergence on prices only you was talking in general about the divergence not about specific type

so I just want to see how you can do it? and you show me how you do it very well with the regular type with great examples, thank you again

about the chart , it's EURNZD from feb to may

but the divergence was great one but include both areas A & B
and it didn't correct so much, it just ranged and then the trend continue

and I attach the chart with OsMA with all divergences I said before

the regular divs with the red lines and the hidden with the blue

the white arrows were my entries and the yellow were other possible entries

chart attached and here is other link if the chart is small
if you don't understand what I wrote LOL, then excuse my English it's not my native language, tell me and I will send a link or document that show what I want to say in better english
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: en.jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #36
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:53pm Jul 17, 2007 2:53pm
Hi there / VIVA
Nice discussions here J
Just one think, one of my system “capture” divergence in prince but in 1M time frame!, here goes a picture of my 2 trades today, lines in red, yellow and green are not indicators, are my calculations of divergence in price, like today when cross yellow time to buy, when cross red time to by again…
Have you ever think to reduce time frames of yours analysis? If you do you will find excellent opportunities mo make fantastic trades.
Good trades to you all, and think about reduce time frame for analisys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: meva.jpg Size: 36 KB
OldSchool
  • #37
  • Jul 17, 2007 6:23pm Jul 17, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting benssol
Thank you warper...
Quoting benssol
2.Hidden Divergence: the other type
and in it indicator made higher highs (or lower lows) and the prices didn't
I thank you too. Despite i'm aware of this kind of divergence, its good when someone make us remember about all of the "weapons" available in our forex arsenal, even if we don't use them much.

Quoting benssol
looking only for major regular divergences is not simple and is very dangerous, you will be looking for an end for the trend or correction...

...so while you look for it you just looking for entry against the trend

...even if you say I wont go with the correction, I will wait until it completed and then enter the market with the trend!!

...but with the major divergence you talk about you will wait long time
Quoting benssol
but the divergence was great one but include both areas A & B
and it didn't correct so much, it just ranged and then the trend continue
There is an important thing i want to say. You are assuming that i use divergence as a entry point to trying to call major tops followed by corrections.

I'm sorry, maybe i didn't explained very well but i only use divergence as a "warning" indicator. What does that warning do to my trading? Its simple...

Before divergence i enter on normal retracements considering the power until there. When i spot divergence, i'm still with the trend but i change for "bottom fishing mode" buying careful dips if there are anyone. If there are no one, i just wait and stay out (whatever strengh i might see).

Depending on the importance of the divergence i might even consider lowering my targets to stay below the last top, contrary to trying to reach new highs.

As i reduce my trading frequency, as i wait for far better prices to enter, and as i lower my targets(the most important) my theoretical winning probability rises(sacrificing pip earnings of course) but counterbalancing with the rise as well of the theoretical reversal probability.

Resuming, as the trend power gets slower my gainings per trade will fade too but my theoretical risk stays equal.

I dont have a lot of experience of trading corrections.. but i tell you in advance that i will start to learn it big, when the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd start correcting.

However... if you read my thread first post and my post in the second page (the one you read) you will notice that i will only enter in correction mode when i see a H4 Lower Major Top. I dont even say double top... because double top might end up in sideways actions.

I'm saying a lower top exactly like the one i describe in my correction review.

Top at 2.0131 and then a Lower top several days later followed by a big drop at "2". Even if i dont start right away when i see that price action, the correction will bring that "temporary bearish air" that everybody feels and i'm sure i will be aware of it.

Quoting benssol
so I just want to see how you can do it? and you show me how you do it very well
I'm not sure i did understand this part. You really want me to show you how did i spotted "regular" divergence without indicators?

One thing i can say... I don't even draw anything like i did for you. It's just optical training but i thought you understood what do i look for in a chart for divergence spotting. Correct me if im wrong.





Quoting Mtav
Have you ever think to reduce time frames of yours analysis? If you do you will find excellent opportunities mo make fantastic trades.

You might not realized but i am a fundamentally based trader. Yet i don't trade economic actual informations like many ppl think fundamentally players do.

Being a fundamental based trader is not about pricing what is happening, is to "buy the rumour and sell the fact".
Buy/Sell whatever the market is antecipating, and as the market antecipates fundamentals, you just need to know and understand what it might be not only for confirmation itself BUT to know where to jump off the boat before everything collapses.

The price might act different from the actual funds but when the antecipated new, doesnt get confirmed... the market do what is right. Unprice the fake rumor.

What is the better time frame for this kind of trading? 4 hour chart.

1 hour works almost equal to 4 H charts.. the difference is that support and resistance areas are much weaker, so whats the point?

In another way... trading in weekly charts is not smart too, because, lets look at divergences for example.

How can someone consider weekly or even daily chart divergences, if we don't know what kind of money and players were envolved in that old days?

You don't know the volume from that times or the money avaiable to make more rise or drops.

Four hour charts are the only charts that combine short term trading with powerful support/resistance lines and the perfect knowledge and view of the strenght of the trend considering that, the only place where you can spot a mood change is on h4 chart.

Read again my correction review and you will notice that the H4 chart contains the main trend lines that will rule the entire correction.

Daily charts are good but just to know where is the mega trend line that rules the pair for months.

Entries and Stops... H4 charts no doubts,,,

Remember... I trade like a sniper... i don't mind to wait!


-
  • #38
  • Jul 17, 2007 7:27pm Jul 17, 2007 7:27pm
thanks for the knowledge... IMHO... TA cannot be applied to cable at this moment of time as cable will continue to be overbought and bullish for a very long long long time... all fundamental analysis is too good for GBP and too bad for USD....
  • #39
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:04pm Jul 18, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting Mtav
Hi there / VIVA
Nice discussions here J
Just one think, one of my system “capture” divergence in prince but in 1M time frame!, here goes a picture of my 2 trades today, lines in red, yellow and green are not indicators, are my calculations of divergence in price, like today when cross yellow time to buy, when cross red time to by again…
Have you ever think to reduce time frames of yours analysis? If you do you will find excellent opportunities mo make fantastic trades.
Good trades to you all, and think about reduce time frame for analisys.
the only small TF that I can trade divergence on it is the 30M

when I'm free I switch to it to play and make small good trades like today in G/U, G/J, E/U

but at 1M I don't know how to do that

can you give more examples or charts that show how to do this?
it will be interesting
  • #40
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:40am Jul 19, 2007 4:40am
Quoting benssol
the only small TF that I can trade divergence on it is the 30M

when I'm free I switch to it to play and make small good trades like today in G/U, G/J, E/U

but at 1M I don't know how to do that

can you give more examples or charts that show how to do this?
it will be interesting
Hi there
benssol, everybody must have their rules/system, and I’m not saying that one time frame is better our worst than other, I’m only recommend who have systems to try to refine it for small time frame, because if there the system is good and robust, this mean produce good results, them I’m sure in time frame for example 1H, it will be fantastic.
Examples, sure here goes one from now (10H30M GMT)
Last 12H – Flat
Good entries for me LONG at 536 SHORT at 510.
GOOD TRADES FOR YOU ALL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: meva.jpg Size: 39 KB
OldSchool
0 traders viewing now