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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #18,341
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:52pm Jul 11, 2007 10:52pm
Quoting 1Sundevil
The cable and the dollar have shown a remarkable ability to ignore what the news tells them they "should" do. It wasn't that long ago that the dollar continued to gain strength with terrible news. Now it's losing strength with good news.

thanks for the reply sun. got a question for you or anybody that can answer. when the forcast is higher than the previous but its negative like the trade balance which is -60 compared to the previous -58 does that mean that is bad? from my college math anything below the zero line and continue to stay negative is bad. with the exception of golf that is. so does that reflect this idea? thanks
  • #18,342
  • Edited Jul 12, 2007 12:01am Jul 11, 2007 11:14pm | Edited Jul 12, 2007 12:01am
Quoting SunTrader
So what is so magical about 2.0440

Can't wait to hear this one. ggggggg

You are having a problem just deciding if it is gbp or bgp.

Time for a break. Good thing weekend is only a trading day away.
Last middle march 07 until end april 07 Cable Run 900 pips(within about 6 week) Roughly forming 2 big rally about up 500 pip on first,than down and up again to complete with 900 pips. So if cable repeat this rally may it go until 2.0440-60
before take a break. This only my thought.

But if GBP duplicate last time Rally Totally. GBP has to touch around 2.0550-2.060
which is hard for myself to bealive this....
  • #18,343
  • Jul 11, 2007 11:22pm Jul 11, 2007 11:22pm
Quoting 1Sundevil
The cable and the dollar have shown a remarkable ability to ignore what the news tells them they "should" do. It wasn't that long ago that the dollar continued to gain strength with terrible news. Now it's losing strength with good news.
The news is only as good as its ability to change or confirm expectations as well as injecting volume into the market. If expectations are strong that gbpusd is going to the moon, news releases even if dollar positive will only help to propel the price if it is unable to change those expectations. Looking at the COT report, you can get a good idea of where those expectations lie, however, as extreme as the report is, i would be careful as one significant catalyst can cause a violent unwinding of positions, until we find a nice equilibrium price where news releases and the markets subsequent actions actually make some sense.

This phenomenon that you witness is probably one of the best simple indicators you can use to show you what the trend is. Tickle me elmo sold for hundreds at one point, not because it made sense, but because it was trendy. While riding a trend is the general idea, you must know your relevant ranges and not jump on at the top. When the COT is extreme, you know that even though you will be jumping in the direction of the trend, most everyone else is already on board - who will be left to drive up price - those that jump on at the top - that is why we see certain candlestick formations, etc, etc. Once a few start jumping off and the market is short of buyers, the herd starts to shift its weight, panicks and everyone starts to jump off.

As everyone is jumping, the savvy trader will recognize what is occurring and use this panic to his/her advantage. Just a thought.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #18,344
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:22am Jul 12, 2007 1:22am
The UK's weak House Price Balance could be reflected negatively at the next MPC meeting.
I am shorting the Cable until NY news.
Good luck to every one
  • #18,345
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:38am Jul 12, 2007 1:38am
Quoting treadline
the trade balance is tomorrow. it says that its -60 does that mean that its bad or good? thats the forecast anyways? the previous it is -58.6 so i assume that -60 is bad and the gbp will rally once more right? or im i reading it wrong?


treadline:

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
  • #18,346
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:52am Jul 12, 2007 1:52am
[/quote]
The -60 is not bad because the last one (-58.5) came better than expected.
  • #18,347
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:08am Jul 12, 2007 2:08am
Lol, dollar officially suck...everyone should think of going to US for a free holiday, do some good to thier economy and be very charitable.
  • #18,348
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:16am Jul 12, 2007 2:16am
Quoting jest1081
Lol, dollar officially suck...everyone should think of going to US for a free holiday, do some good to thier economy and be very charitable.
Weak $ = very EXPENSIVE foreign imports = less exports out of Asia and Europe

Bush can't put on tariffs, like he wanted to, but this is just as good. So, in the end who's economy is really going to have problems?
  • #18,349
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:20am Jul 12, 2007 2:20am
Quoting Turtle
Forgive me if I wasn't to clear...I'm scalping right now because of these high levels and the unknown.

But if a trend presents itself or I see a nice entry to buy on the dips, then of course I will get in for a long term.

But when I do scalp, I use bigger lots, knowing that I'm only looking for smaller pip counts.
Me too, I have had some lovely scalps during the last two weeks - I only ever scalp a major strong trend, buying on dips....the trend protects you most of the time...I would never scalp a ranging/sideways market.
  • #18,350
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:32am Jul 12, 2007 2:32am
Bros. Tell me what the trend now, Up or Down, nothing is clear.
Give me patience
  • #18,351
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:35am Jul 12, 2007 2:35am
Quoting 1Sundevil
Weak $ = very EXPENSIVE foreign imports = less exports out of Asia and Europe

Bush can't put on tariffs, like he wanted to, but this is just as good. So, in the end who's economy is really going to have problems?
Well i think it working both ways, their exports are also not doing too well with cheaper and more attractive trades available elsewhere. So either way looks like they are being caged in! Bush might just bring the dollar down with him, what a way to leave the seat, now thats a bang!
  • #18,352
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:36am Jul 12, 2007 2:36am
Quoting Bullfx
Bros. Tell me what the trend now, Up or Down, nothing is clear.
Dont follow others, trades your own ideas.
  • #18,353
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:43am Jul 12, 2007 2:43am
Quoting jest1081
Lol, dollar officially suck...everyone should think of going to US for a free holiday, do some good to thier economy and be very charitable.
Is not a mater of suck or not. The cable priced very high and may need some correction
  • #18,354
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:45am Jul 12, 2007 2:45am
Quoting zamans98

good area for bottom fishing
I like the sound of that
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #18,355
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:54am Jul 12, 2007 2:54am
Quoting ndvt241
The UK's weak House Price Balance could be reflected negatively at the next MPC meeting.
I am shorting the Cable until NY news.
Good luck to every one
News from the front as at today - my UK house won't sell and neither will anyone elses - market has really slowed in the last few weeks - commodity house in the right area and right price with neutral decoration - only 1 eccentric viewer in 6 weeks... don't wait for the official statistics - this is what is happening right now...
So that is one factor suggesting BOE caution would be appropriate - but they have other fish to fry and getting my house sold is not one of them......
  • #18,356
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:59am Jul 12, 2007 2:59am
Quoting Bullfx
Bros. Tell me what the trend now, Up or Down, nothing is clear.
Not good to ask - give your view or read others opinions but please don't ask...
  • #18,357
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:00am Jul 12, 2007 3:00am
Careful to the shorters

Im myself long at 2.0330

Going for 40pips up

Anyway I do not see any signal saying short yet.


Geez..........
  • #18,358
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:00am Jul 12, 2007 3:00am
Guys do you see a gap on your 1hr. charts mt4?,....
  • #18,359
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:02am Jul 12, 2007 3:02am
Quoting allserene
News from the front as at today - my UK house won't sell and neither will anyone elses - market has really slowed in the last few weeks - commodity house in the right area and right price with neutral decoration - only 1 eccentric viewer in 6 weeks... don't wait for the official statistics - this is what is happening right now...
So that is one factor suggesting BOE caution would be appropriate - but they have other fish to fry and getting my house sold is not one of them......
You are not wrong there - my better half is an estate agent in Kent, and has been saying this for the last few weeks now, he is saying things are really slow (he is not used to this) and reckoned the market was at its peak price-wise.
  • #18,360
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:04am Jul 12, 2007 3:04am
Quoting plicksboy
Guys do you see a gap on your 1hr. charts mt4?,....
There is no gap........don't give urself an excuse to close a losing trade.
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