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  • #10,421
  • Jun 25, 2024 12:29am Jun 25, 2024 12:29am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Each day as in EVERY day? EU yesterday for example, was a big trend day from the start. To me, that seems more like a setup / manipulation over a couple of days.
Quoting TimeTells
{quote}All methods/systems would then likely work when you/we understand what the market HAS TO DO EACH DAY, as it works itself to (and from) its high and lows.

Hi O,
Yes, EU looked like a Grinder Day to me yesterday, the aggregations were likely sells loaded and the market flushed out some weak hands (as it has to).
Not a pair I trade, but on Review it looks the same market mechanics process to me that they play out each day
(but never the same move which I believe is due to the aggregation of retail trades, but who knows for sure why - we just trade to what we see).

EURUSD

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 review.png Size: 20 KB
  • #10,422
  • Jun 25, 2024 1:22am Jun 25, 2024 1:22am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Hi O, Yes, EU looked like a Grinder Day to me yesterday, the aggregations were likely sells loaded and the market flushed out some weak hands (as it has to). Not a pair I trade, but on Review it looks the same market mechanics process to me that they play out each day (but never the same move which I believe is due to the aggregation of retail trades, but who knows for sure why - we just trade to what we see). EURUSD . {image}
What I meant was; did EU yesterday do what it "HAD to do", or in the week before?
Can you isolate any day to see what "HAS to be done"?
  • #10,423
  • Jun 25, 2024 2:08am Jun 25, 2024 2:08am
Quoting Onra
{quote} What I meant was; did EU yesterday do what it "HAD to do", or in the week before?
Can you isolate any day to see what "HAS to be done"?

Hi Onra,
Mate for me it is not that simple or long looking days ahead as I essentially scalp by current session (15p target but may get less or more based on happenings).
George mentioned it easiest for me … TARGETS, TARGET, TARGETS

A trader can use indicators, maths, waves, envelopes, bands, channels etc etc etc to guide them into and out of their own trades at their own discretion.
But I have no complete study of ALL those trading methodologies to offer specific data from, but by my chart observations I can see the market will shoot
to, and from, AND through TARGETS along the way. And yes, do it each individual day.

Targets were the main gist for me from george.
The rub is that there are always targets both above AND below price at any point in time.
So which target will the market shoot for next? I just operate on the simple belief (which suits me … and my personality hahaa)
that there is an aggregation process always going on within the existing market trades PRIOR to a main market move.

I, and almost everyone else I imagine, decide through their/our OWN processes for which direction price next takes.
That, in essence, is The Trading Part we all talk about and enact.

Myself I don’t trade “positionally” (ie take or look at longer term positions or moves over many days) so any ultimate positional direction is of less relevance
(to me, I mean).

I just trade “sessionally” so I am interested in the session moves so I could at times have trade buys in the morning Asia and tthen trade sells in the afternoon Franky/London based on the intraday market moves. Or it could be buys and then buys again (or sells & sells if you know what I mean).

I try and let the market show me its preference at the time, and I watch carefully for any fakes’n’flips shakeouts whipsaws around London (and also again around New York but I am asleep then, and as I babysit each of my trades manually I will have closed positions at that point).

My charts show some of the targets where other traders MAY become interested, both buyers AND sellers of different method types.

For example on the EU chart above I would have examined the price move during Asia moving up to the (two targets) the BRN000 and Month S1.
At those targets I ask myself will price bounce & reverse or will price continue to run through. Pivot traders might come in and counter trend trade at S1.
If the majority of market trades are then reversals I ask myself WHO will be taking the opposite side (ie the 'buys').
Who has the strongest hands (whatever that means) will likely prevail.
If buyers are the strongest at that point (BRN000 & Month S1) then sellers are trapped.
But the sellers maybe still decide to hang on to the drawdown trades (or even average down and add more to their position).
We see price then ran up further to near the previous day high and RN250 (targets) and the same aggregation would appear to take place again there.
We can ask once more who is holding many drawdown trades and/or adding and if so who is still taking the opposite side to those sell trades at the 2nd set of targets.

And so on and so forth.

Myself I can only wait as I do not KNOW what happens next but I might enter a trade when I have a discretionary clue/feel/observation/maths-adr assessment etc that the end of a big move occurs.
- AND THEN - I still wait for some confirmation.
Bolder or more maths savvy/probability traders may enter well before me and score more pips should we both win.
Which doesn’t bother me, as I have no FOMO & no greed and I just take what I can, if I can.

Which is why I will say, trade safe and THEN trade well. Each to their own of course, there no ONE way or best way to trade these markets imo.

all the best, sir
  • #10,424
  • Jun 25, 2024 4:04am Jun 25, 2024 4:04am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Onra, Mate for me it is not that simple or long looking days ahead as I essentially scalp by current session (15p target but may get less or more based on happenings). George mentioned it easiest for me … TARGETS, TARGET, TARGETS A trader can use indicators, maths, waves, envelopes, bands, channels etc etc etc to guide them into and out of their own trades at their own discretion. But I have no complete study of ALL those trading methodologies to offer specific data from, but by my chart observations I can see the market will shoot to,...
Thanks for taking the time!
I'm just torn between these options:

  1. Price HAS to do something; come back; revisit; take out targets... etc.
    Big Question is: WHAT? (and how to calculate that)
  2. It's just all fake and you must only concentrate on
    • who's losing - taking the opposite side
    • figuring out the less likely way price will go, based upon what it appears to be doing

  • #10,425
  • Jun 25, 2024 4:55am Jun 25, 2024 4:55am
Quoting Onra
{quote} I'm just torn between these options

Hi Onra,
I have no actuasl answer to your situation.
imho trading is a much YOU vs YOU (US vs US) as opposed to You/us vs THE MARKET.

When we assign ourselves two choices (1 or 2, A or B etc) in a situation we have created for ourselves an ideal “dilemma”
noun
Dilemma
A situation that requires a choice between options that are or seem equally unfavorable or unsatisfactory.


There was a book I read some 30 years ago Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance where apart from the philosophical discussions & thoughts that took place in the pages I ended up on ONE major aspect only where the main character Phaedrus is caught up in a dilemma of his own with his PERSONAL inquiries on a topic where he was left with just two (ultimately unsatisfactory) alternatives
(the ‘dilemma’)
and which in the book sent him into a mental breakdown and psychiatric hospitalisation

The answer seemingly to any dilemma seems then to be NOT TRAPPED inside choosing one of two offered alternatives.
When in fact there might be unlimited alternative choices to also be explored and considered.

Or we could even go further & explore george’s path and not be limited to any set of alternatives but become …
boundless
... in our thinking.
And even explore what De Bono labelled decades ago as Lateral Thinking (as a technique for problem solving).

We could abandon what is our own choice of understanding of the market and just flow with it.
This might be an easier task I reckon when we can just see what the market is capable of.
And then maybe determine what it is capable of doing “now” as the market is flowing.

There is probably no one way to trade or observe the market or to pin it down.
Best we can try is to not “take it on in battle” and therefore try and shift the market from what it is actually doing.
ie “has to do” in fact to be an actual market with a multitude of participants ranging from retail to institutions, to hedge funds, to tier banks etc etc.

Where are we trading in this massive market ourselves (timeframes/lengths) and to what end.

This post likely doesn’t help too much lol, sorry , just my thoughts as I prepare to shut up shop now for the night

Good wishes to all and to all playing New York Open to London Close/Fixing Time

Best wishes
  • #10,426
  • Jun 25, 2024 5:09am Jun 25, 2024 5:09am
Cheers Onra, best wishes mate

Chart target updates on EURUSD now as at NY Open, all the best folks

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,427
  • Jun 25, 2024 10:09am Jun 25, 2024 10:09am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Thanks for taking the time! I'm just torn between these options: Price HAS to do something; come back; revisit; take out targets... etc. Big Question is: WHAT? (and how to calculate that) It's just all fake and you must only concentrate on • who's losing - taking the opposite side • figuring out the less likely way price will go, based upon what it appears to be doing
It has to be Option 1 - all day long IMHO.

Market has Structure, PDH, PWH, PMH, PDL, PWL,PML, Market Opening & Closing Prices, Daily & Weekly Pivot Levels, ADR (Average Daily Range).
Currency controls & Fixes in place where CB's will step in, if things go haywire like when Speculators attack eg. Soros.

Besides you should know all this info beforehand, if not then you are left with only Option 2

Your EU chart tells a story from Tuesday of last week at the minimum, you can see the effect of News Events (Red News & CB member speeches) which I call FunnyMentals, but also Market Structure dictating things, not just day to day but week to week also.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,428
  • Jun 25, 2024 11:05am Jun 25, 2024 11:05am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It has to be Option 1 - all day long IMHO. Market has Structure, PDH, PWH, PMH, PDL, PWL,PML, Market Opening & Closing Prices, Daily & Weekly Pivot Levels, ADR (Average Daily Range). Currency controls & Fixes in place where CB's will step in, if things go haywire like when Speculators attack eg. Soros. Besides you should know all this info beforehand, if not then you are left with only Option 2 Your EU chart tells a story from Tuesday of last week at the minimum, you can see the effect of News Events (Red News & CB member speeches) which...
Wow, I see you're deep in the woods. I hope you can figure it out.
peace.
  • #10,429
  • Jun 26, 2024 12:22am Jun 26, 2024 12:22am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It has to be Option 1 - all day long IMHO. Market has Structure, PDH, PWH, PMH, PDL, PWL,PML, Market Opening & Closing Prices, Daily & Weekly Pivot Levels, ADR (Average Daily Range). Currency controls & Fixes in place where CB's will step in, if things go haywire like when Speculators attack eg. Soros. Besides you should know all this info beforehand, if not then you are left with only Option 2 Your EU chart tells a story from Tuesday of last week at the minimum, you can see the effect of News Events (Red News & CB member speeches) which...
Hello Shabs!
We're definitely on the same page regarding your last sentence!
There was no need to micromanage the EU on Monday, IF I had known it was destined to become a trend day...

All those lines on TT's chart...;
he calls them "Targets" and you "Market Structure"?
  • #10,430
  • Jun 26, 2024 12:27am Jun 26, 2024 12:27am
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers Onra, best wishes mate Chart target updates on EURUSD now as at NY Open, all the best folks . {image}
Hello TimeTells!

Are ALL these lines Targets to you, or did you come up with a system that give some sort of priority?
And if they're all Targets, do you use a lower TF to enter?
  • #10,431
  • Jun 26, 2024 1:02am Jun 26, 2024 1:02am
Quoting Onra
{quote}
Hello TimeTells!
Are ALL these lines Targets to you, or did you come up with a system that give some sort of priority?
And if they're all Targets, do you use a lower TF to enter?

Hi O,
I call such Targets - Trader Attractors
(not all of my targets are on every chart - just whatever is in the vicinity at the time - and I give NO one target a special importance - it varies daily)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14643155
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14581061

And by trader Attractors I mean "other" traders, not me, I am just watching how any attraction of liquidity (ie the market is now moving) might play out.
So I just try & follow the market afterwards
to see IF these other traders will bring in or entice liquidity at the very time & price I'm looking at.
I have NO system, Onra.
I'm a discretionary trader.
I just make my own trade choices based on what is happening now.
(So not yesterday, not tomorrow, and NOT what the BoJ or MoF tell us they MIGHT do SOON with their currency hahaaa )

I do use a variety of TFs, mainly the 15m but expand to the one hour to see previous opens that might be hidden on a 15m or 5m chart (not just yesterdays opens)
(also 4hr, rarely daily, and the 1min only a few times now just to finesse an entry for an extra pip or two if I can - not really necessary)

I do the best I can with what I have is all. Like most of us.

While I have no SET system I used both of these Trade Simulators below over & over for a year I reckon dropping varying templates on them to see if one template was any better for me than another.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14676017
In the end I just saw that the market mechanics play out day after day. That is what I needed to see, first. After than any chart loadup should do.

Try the simulators over a weekend if you have time,
use them on your current templates, or choose other templates from anywhere to check any variance you can find in your viewpoint (george's boundless)

See if you can see what the market does each day (around the targets / trader attractors - price could go up or down, and if so, what should a trader do then)

all the best O
  • #10,432
  • Jun 26, 2024 1:08am Jun 26, 2024 1:08am
I don't trade this pair but for what its worth lol here's todays current EURUSD

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 trader attractors.png Size: 8 KB
  • #10,433
  • Jun 26, 2024 1:46am Jun 26, 2024 1:46am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi O, I call such Targets - Trader Attractors (not all of my targets are on every chart - just whatever is in the vicinity at the time - and I give NO one target a special importance - it varies daily) https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14643155 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14581061 And by trader Attractors I mean "other" traders, not me, I am just watching how any attraction of liquidity (ie the market is now moving) might play out. So I just try & follow the market afterwards...
Thanks and thanks for the links; I see there's a lot more to it than your charts show.
  • #10,434
  • Jun 26, 2024 1:59am Jun 26, 2024 1:59am
Quoting Onra
{quote}
Thanks and thanks for the links; I see there's a lot more to it than your charts show.

Correct
Charts can only show what HAS happened, already.

It becomes fascinating, or did to me, when what HAS happened continues to happen, day after day.
Not the same move of course, ie not a replica to be blindly followed. But the same mechanics if you will.
All the best
  • #10,435
  • Jun 26, 2024 6:16am Jun 26, 2024 6:16am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Hello Shabs! We're definitely on the same page regarding your last sentence! There was no need to micromanage the EU on Monday, IF I had known it was destined to become a trend day... All those lines on TT's chart...; he calls them "Targets" and you "Market Structure"?
A bit more to it than that, although I do have levels marked as TT does.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,436
  • Jul 1, 2024 3:56pm Jul 1, 2024 3:56pm
A coupla' quick trader attractor charts

Quoting TimeTells
I don't trade this pair but for what its worth lol here's todays current EURUSD . {image}
EURUSD ... and my fave of course ... GBPJPY

and as always, trade em safe, trade em well
have a great day/week folks

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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 gaps and trader attractors.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 today trader attractors.png Size: 10 KB
  • #10,437
  • Jul 2, 2024 12:39am Jul 2, 2024 12:39am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
EURUSD ... and my fave of course ... GBPJPY
Okay, Stage One of the above two charts from 7 hours ago completed at London Open plus ½ an hour.

New Stage commencing, as always can by UP or Down, or up AND down, or up+up or down+down
We wait and see.
Trade safe and trade well for the rest of the week folks

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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 gap is now closed.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 london open.png Size: 13 KB
  • #10,438
  • Jul 6, 2024 2:53am Jul 6, 2024 2:53am
first week of July is done, NFP over, UK elections & French elections and, well you get it


I will call this chart review though, random repeating coincidences

likely back here in a weeks time
Trade safe, trade well folks


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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 random repeating coincidences.png Size: 21 KB
  • #10,439
  • Edited 7:10am Jul 7, 2024 6:51am | Edited 7:10am
Agreed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-07-07_14h47_55.png Size: 21 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,440
  • Jul 7, 2024 3:01pm Jul 7, 2024 3:01pm
Quoting Shabs19
Agreed. {image}

Hi Shabs,

I see some great structure trading opportunities in there (and everyday) around your highlighted horizontal price lines & zones

The month continues

Trade safe, and trade well folks
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