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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #829,701
  • Jun 15, 2024 5:31am Jun 15, 2024 5:31am
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  • #829,702
  • Jun 15, 2024 7:11am Jun 15, 2024 7:11am
Quoting Bones
{quote} if it goes to 2% it's still hot because the fall comes from data falling out, if it continues at the current rate it will go back up also, they're not going to drop on the eve of an election 1.2% fell out last month, and 0.7% falls out this month, a 0.32% MoM read is double target annualised
Thanks Tony

Then it is not clear to me, why the ECB already started to cut?

When do you think BOE might start cutting?
  • #829,703
  • Edited 7:34am Jun 15, 2024 7:22am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting Headland
...you can see on dly chart below where the pullback from 2658 current dly/wkly lo has run into supply ....
Re discussion above; I echoe Bones, -Boe's Mpc won't cut (or raise) rates during an election campaign, under 'normal circumstances.'

Re Gbpusd; The wkly candle closed bearishly, Friday's dly candle closed bearishly, and the 'general' uptrend on that t/f looks in serious doubt now, 4hr maybe at the start of a downtrend, and 1hr closed the week in a 'general' downtrend. So all in all, on the t/f's that matter, it's an overall bearish scenario to close the week. Signs though re last 2 x 4hr candles that there might be at least some more upside p/back,? -or- maybe the potential sbr price closed challenging, will send it down further?

2 x > 30day adr days this week just closed, and price traveled 126% of 13wk (1/4yr) awr during it. If you can believe it for this instrument - the 30day adr at start of Friday was 68pips!

4hr then 1hr below (Wkly & Dly charts via the quote above.)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #829,704
  • Jun 15, 2024 7:54am Jun 15, 2024 7:54am
Hi people,

My levels for next week...

I will also keep an eye on Taylor's UK tour as according to CNBC might determine how many rate cuts will have this year and also when to expect them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/tayl...-rate-cut.html

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!!!
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Just another trader in drawdown... Volume Profiles & PA
  • #829,705
  • Jun 15, 2024 8:58am Jun 15, 2024 8:58am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} after the correction, yes, it can go in any direction, they cannot know that, but in which direction the correction will take place, yes, and that is enough. and a position can only be opened for the correction. of course, if only 20-30 pips is enough for someone.
So at which stage would you say that GU is now ?
  • #829,706
  • Jun 15, 2024 11:27am Jun 15, 2024 11:27am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} So at which stage would you say that GU is now ?
I posted this forecast on Thursday.
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  • #829,707
  • Jun 15, 2024 11:54am Jun 15, 2024 11:54am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Thanks Tony Then it is not clear to me, why the ECB already started to cut. When do you think BOE might start cutting?
I am not sure about the EU Vincent, it's a mixed bag of countries, looks early to me
the election is the biggest risk to the UK right now and the polls could be way off
You can see it in the EU, the further the EU go with crazy ideas the further the electorate will swing
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  • #829,708
  • Jun 16, 2024 12:19am Jun 16, 2024 12:19am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} I posted this forecast on Thursday. {image}
...but this forecast has over shot by 30 pips
  • #829,709
  • Jun 16, 2024 12:32am Jun 16, 2024 12:32am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} ...but this forecast has over shot by 30 pips
do you really expect it to be a hair's breadth accurate? this is a possible scenario.
I look forward to your analysis, which I'm sure will be correct.
because I never saw any analysis from you.
  • #829,710
  • Jun 16, 2024 12:40am Jun 16, 2024 12:40am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} do you really expect it to be a hair's breadth accurate? this is a possible scenario. I look forward to your analysis, which I'm sure will be correct. because I never saw any analysis from you.
Well yes, if you are predicting then should be accurate, what's the point if you are going to be out by 30, 50, 100 pips we can all predict that, as for my analysis I'm sure most folks on here know where I stand but for those who don't, "The market can move any direction at any time for any amount" and yes you're I right I'm always correct...
  • #829,711
  • Jun 16, 2024 12:50am Jun 16, 2024 12:50am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Well yes, if you are predicting then should be accurate, what's the point if you are going to be out by 30, 50, 100 pips we can all predict that, as for my analysis I'm sure most folks on here know where I stand but for those who don't, "The market can move any direction at any time for any amount" and yes you're I right I'm always correct...
you simply cannot be precise, there are always slips. for example, it breaks through S/R levels and then turns back in the right direction.
  • #829,712
  • Jun 16, 2024 1:12am Jun 16, 2024 1:12am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} you simply cannot be precise, there are always slips. for example, it breaks through S/R levels and then turns back in the right direction.
So what would you say is a reasonable slip before abandoning a trade...
  • #829,713
  • Jun 16, 2024 4:50am Jun 16, 2024 4:50am
Passing by, saying hello to all the familiar names and buddies!

Glad you’re doing great! print that !
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #829,714
  • Jun 16, 2024 5:10am Jun 16, 2024 5:10am
Quoting dempire1
Passing by, saying hello to all the familiar names and buddies! Glad you’re doing great! print that !
Good to see you back Dempire, hope you'll stay around...
  • #829,715
  • Jun 16, 2024 9:53am Jun 16, 2024 9:53am
checking different chart. breaks and hold 2668 close daily or low 2642 , better 30 may initial next bear leg down to 2367 /30 or down ! so may a wait little to short comfort next, intermediate sr can be 2508 and 2444.
now as in good demand / support areas , can try bounce breaking limits up 2692 and 2737 then to 2760 to even 2823 possible .may short at any high if all ok may try this week. take care
specially below main limit up for down 2737!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #829,716
  • Jun 16, 2024 10:05am Jun 16, 2024 10:05am
BTC opened long for medium term, 66550, SL will be 64000 target 72000
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #829,717
  • Jun 16, 2024 10:05am Jun 16, 2024 10:05am
Cable

If Monday is an inside day, I'll sell to 1.2620 Tuesday and look for intraday shift bullish from around there or 1.26 to target 1.29 eventually.

I think dxy is bearish after another leg up. Fridays move looks like a technical stop hunt on Eurodollar. Bullish ultrabond does not support this move. I think we'll eventually move below the most recent NFP low and April poorlow.
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  • #829,718
  • Jun 16, 2024 1:55pm Jun 16, 2024 1:55pm
GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame went sideways in the latter part of Friday after a brief bearish drive during the earlier sessions. Presently, price action is at the lower boundary of the 1.28000/1.26670 horizontal channel (magenta). The dominant technical structure is bearish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #829,719
  • Jun 16, 2024 4:38pm Jun 16, 2024 4:38pm
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E. and BP 5' --- Sold my longs in both curr. here NOW.

  • #829,720
  • Jun 16, 2024 7:15pm Jun 16, 2024 7:15pm
my chart with lines
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