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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #17,781
  • Jul 6, 2007 5:09pm Jul 6, 2007 5:09pm
Quoting Bullfx
Cera don't worry, next week shall be 300 p down
I'm not worried. Are you?
  • #17,782
  • Jul 6, 2007 6:11pm Jul 6, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
Passes out a few more muffins!

-Don't worry, I'll make more...
have some camel milk
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #17,783
  • Jul 7, 2007 12:46am Jul 7, 2007 12:46am
Quoting karmostaji
we'll definitely be going above 0200 next week

Well, with the US not raising interest rates, and likely further interest rate rises for the UK, I see cable heading that way for a little while yet, but for how long?......
  • #17,784
  • Jul 7, 2007 2:09am Jul 7, 2007 2:09am
Anyone interested in joining my short party? Long pants not required.
Attached Image
  • #17,785
  • Edited 6:45am Jul 7, 2007 2:48am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting jest1081
Anyone interested in joining my short party? Long pants not required.

It's a bit chilly for shorts today!! Only joking Jest, if you live in the UK you'll know what I mean (weather is not brilliant considering it is summer, my shorts are still in the drawer).

Interesting chart though....are you going to go short at that point?

I really believe that there will be a little more USD weakness just from point of view of fundamentals, just my feeling at the mo....
  • #17,786
  • Jul 7, 2007 5:24am Jul 7, 2007 5:24am
Feelings are useless as an indicator in Forex you should trade what you see on charts, not what your emotions say.

Besides Jest that's a great notice down here. I'm going to pay more attention to that chart.
  • #17,787
  • Jul 7, 2007 6:09am Jul 7, 2007 6:09am
Quoting angiegiles00

I really believe that there will be a little more USD weakness just from point of view of fundamentals, just my feeling at the mo....
With the US likely to leave interest rates unchanged and the euro set for a hike, with the pound having another possible hike before the end of this year, I too also see more USD weakness.

Just my two pips...
  • #17,788
  • Jul 7, 2007 6:10am Jul 7, 2007 6:10am
Quoting Mindaugas
Feelings are useless as an indicator in Forex you should trade what you see on charts, not what your emotions say.

Besides Jest that's a great notice down here. I'm going to pay more attention to that chart.

Hi
Yes, I agree! You cannot trade using emotion - but I do not trade just on basis of charts, fundamentals do come into play too...I believe you cannot ignore other factors..

I think you misunderstood me. Perhaps I should not have used the word 'feeling' in my previous post (as English is not everybody's first language). I used that word to convey the meaning of 'belief or opinion' and NOT 'emotion'.

Thanks
  • #17,789
  • Jul 7, 2007 6:13am Jul 7, 2007 6:13am
Quoting Turtle
With the US likely to leave interest rates unchanged and the euro set for a hike, with the pound having another possible hike before the end of this year, I too also see more USD weakness.

Just my two pips...
Exactly Turtle, I think you just cannot ignore the fundamentals, especially at the moment...

I do use alot of charting, but not in isolation. Jest's chart is certainly food for thought, and I am not dismissing it, just that fundamentals are weighing in too....
  • #17,790
  • Jul 7, 2007 6:24am Jul 7, 2007 6:24am
Quoting angiegiles00
Exactly Turtle, I think you just cannot ignore the fundamentals, especially at the moment...

I do use alot of charting, but not in isolation. Jest's chart is certainly food for thought, and I am not dismissing it, just that fundamentals are weighing in too....
Exactly, as for me I take everything into consideration. The charts, the news, and my gut feeling.

When I only look at one aspect and not the others it tends to hurt my account....
  • #17,791
  • Jul 7, 2007 8:08am Jul 7, 2007 8:08am
It could see 2.09 before it goes down. 10 year note in US heading up...
  • #17,792
  • Edited 8:36am Jul 7, 2007 8:23am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting jest1081
Anyone interested in joining my short party? Long pants not required.
There´re different ways to finally see the same conclusion.
For me all depends on 2.0030 level if a daily bar close below this level... Sayonara longs but if price rebounds and a daily bar close above 2.0160-2.0180 sayonara shorts

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/5...7101824nr8.png
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #17,793
  • Jul 7, 2007 8:33am Jul 7, 2007 8:33am
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/4...7103142jr1.png
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #17,794
  • Jul 7, 2007 9:22am Jul 7, 2007 9:22am
Cable, please go back to 1.90 .

Thank you.
  • #17,795
  • Jul 7, 2007 9:26am Jul 7, 2007 9:26am
All this talk about fundamentals, fundamentals only mean so much - While many see the current affairs of the US economy as dollar negative - trading involves much more than this - the question is how long have you and everyone else seen this and is it priced in already. If so additional releases only add to inflate the possibility for a corrective bubble or reversal - where is the commitment of traders report at right now - seems to be pretty one sided on noncomercials. Am I saying short the pound - no : not really giving any recommendation - if in a long position you have been doing fine and your MM and analysis should dictate your exit, however I do think that this is the wrong(risky) point in time to be entering new opening long term long positions on the pair. fighting the trend may be a bad idea as well.

It will be interesting to see how price reacts in the 9900-9960 level where a positive reversal will most likely come in coupled with top bottom support and most daily trend indicators still pointing strongly up(not to mention multi year weekly trendline, and fib retracement areas). Could possibly be an area to safely go long, but will be dependant as well on COT, as an extreme held reading could set the stage for a much deeper initila correction or long choppy consolidation period
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #17,796
  • Jul 7, 2007 9:39am Jul 7, 2007 9:39am
Hi guys,

Im very aware of the current trend right now, im not too good with fundamentals and i have a very simple mind, to just trade and be profitable. Im short since 118. So far every single technical setup on every weekly divergence has been succesfull lately but the price still trends up...ring a bell? Must say my thanks to bella system.

Lets just say im shorting just so that i could possibly buy back at a cheaper price? Abt the fundamentals i think it only works out in the long term, you know when u finally see the dust settle in and you go 'ahhhh', im sure the current rate hike will only further appreciate e sterling, carrys for jpy crosses are gonna fuel this.
  • #17,797
  • Jul 7, 2007 10:48am Jul 7, 2007 10:48am
Trend is up but price can either continue towards 0235 area or come down to 9970 first then resume up

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/2655/gu11kt0.png
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #17,798
  • Jul 7, 2007 10:51am Jul 7, 2007 10:51am
Quoting Tragapips
There´re different ways to finally see the same conclusion.
For me all depends on 2.0030 level if a daily bar close below this level... Sayonara longs but if price rebounds and a daily bar close above 2.0160-2.0180 sayonara shorts
I believe it will go to 1.98 before it goes higher.
Bigger image http://members.aol.com/f8222/gbp.jpg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #17,799
  • Jul 7, 2007 1:56pm Jul 7, 2007 1:56pm
Quoting Leugimp
All this talk about fundamentals, fundamentals only mean so much - While many see the current affairs of the US economy as dollar negative - trading involves much more than this - the question is how long have you and everyone else seen this and is it priced in already. If so additional releases only add to inflate the possibility for a corrective bubble or reversal - where is the commitment of traders report at right now - seems to be pretty one sided on noncomercials. Am I saying short the pound - no : not really giving any recommendation - if in a long position you have been doing fine and your MM and analysis should dictate your exit, however I do think that this is the wrong(risky) point in time to be entering new opening long term long positions on the pair. fighting the trend may be a bad idea as well.

It will be interesting to see how price reacts in the 9900-9960 level where a positive reversal will most likely come in coupled with top bottom support and most daily trend indicators still pointing strongly up(not to mention multi year weekly trendline, and fib retracement areas). Could possibly be an area to safely go long, but will be dependant as well on COT, as an extreme held reading could set the stage for a much deeper initila correction or long choppy consolidation period

Great response and thanks Leugimp. I was wanting to prompt some responses to my earlier posts re fundamentals, charts and trading from traders here who are far more experienced than myself....

Your insight is very much valued...you have raised some very interesting and useful comments.
  • #17,800
  • Jul 7, 2007 2:43pm Jul 7, 2007 2:43pm
My opinion for next move : Long Cable Long
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