Cable Update (GBPUSD)

In just over 5 hours were going to get some Euro fireworks which will no doubt cause Cable to jump around...

Yeah that 1 min candle took me by surprise. Happened in a flash

Ready to burn 18 pips

Short 1.2762 SL 1.2780

I booked this profit based on what the chart said in 1 / 5 min chart.

But, 2780/90, i see sellers.

I may be wrong.

Fucking classic, still the funniest film ever...

Yeah m8, you just saying that makes me laugh

Best comedy TV series ever Faulty Towers

added to longs

Today's Support & Resistance on MT5 Templates

EURO
CABLE
GOLD

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14882597

in long -1.2767
tp-1.2818

sl- no sl

super bullish GU

Just curious, why limit yourself to a 51 pip gain with an infinite loss factor? (aka a fear of winning big with no fear of loosing everything).
Or do you have a plan if the trade goes against you? ie hedge, double down etc? And if so, what is it?
Asking just to get peoples minds stimulated.
Curious for your response

The high of the week is already in place

sooner or later we will take out 1.2674 swing low.

Hello Guys,
here is our new research analysis report,
.
This is Inflation week.
This is inflation week. Today we get Germany’s numbers and on Friday, both the eurozone and the US PCE.

For the eurozone, expectations are for core to remain the same at 2.7% (with the headline up to 2.5% from 2.4%) and for the ECB to cut in June. This is being named a “hawkish cut,” one of those inherently self-contradictory terms.
In the US, the flash PMI last week reversed the gloomy expectations and core PCE is now seen at 0.2%, down from 0.3%, or 2.7%, down from 2.8% last time. Headline CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.7% y/y. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast agrees and has both headline and core at 2.7%. This is hardly the extent of disinflation one would wish for, or the extent needed to trash the dollar.
.
On the Friday before the US holiday, the dollar’s upward correction came to an abrupt halt, purportedly on both the durables and University of Michigan survey that pointed to the economy softening and thus disinflationary and the Fed perceived as likely to return to a rate cutting mindset.
Poppycock. The Fed doesn’t make policy decisions on PMI’s, durables or surveys. They are a minor input to the overall decision, which is based on inflation and employment. Not trends in inflation and employment, but the actual data. Traders are, of course, welcome to over-extrapolate and to mistake one thing for another, but this kind of whipsawing makes them appear even dumber than usual.
To point out that it’s a rush of short-covering is no help
it’s still a form of panic.
Thats why Investors are Rushing towards GOLD.
.
Now Lets look at the History
.
say Hello to last December when the Fed hinted that rates could start falling, the remarks were indeed based on what looked like a disinflation trend forming. But it turned out to be a mistake, not only because the markets went overboard and started to count no fewer than six cuts this year, but also because all three months of the first quarter delivered a stalling disinflation trend.
Stalling is not the same thing as a fatal reversal. But again the markets decided that if FOMC members could contemplate a hike, they should, too (at least for a week or so). Neither the Fed nor the market appreciate that trend-following doesn’t mean straight lines. They also fail to grasp that oddball factors and side effects can influence trends.
A major instance of this is the demographic and pandemic effects that so deeply influence the labor market, especially in the US. They have also affected the housing market, with so many Baby Boomers unwilling to sell their homes even at inflated prices because homes for the retirement years are too expensive, come with 7% mortgages and are not well built. Then there are the upper middle-class homeowners who got a second home and reduced the inventory so drastically.
.
lets look at US Economy,
Logically, we should be recognizing that the US economy is madly different from all other economies for a dozen reasons, including relatively less regulation, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the availability of credit. It is more robust and resilient than other economies, and has a higher proportion of self-employed and small businesses. It’s not exactly cowboy spirit and “Go west, young man,” but it’s a lot less conformist than in the UK and Europe.
Anyone can hang out a shingle in the US offering to paint your house. In Germany, you need a license and the license entails the expense and time wasted of “training.” The world has 400 small businesses and 33.3 million are in the US.
Oddly, Japan has a high ratio, too, but nobody matches the US, where 99.9% of all businesses are small (fewer than 250 employees).
These differences make central-bank decision-making different, too. All the talk about “divergence” in central bank decision making is also poppycock.
Disinflation is about the same in all the major economies. The BoE and ECB can contemplate earlier rate cuts not because of inflation, but rather because their economies have such lower growth rates. That means less employment growth and also less of the consumer spending that drives inflation.
Therefore, the ECB can be happy with core at 2.7% minus something and cut rates in June with relatively less anxiety than the Fed facing the same data. Not apples and oranges, but not far from it, either.
.
We are in the grip of one bit of data, relevant to the Fed or not, having the power to move yields and the dollar. This means traders are scared, if only because they lack a coherent most-likely scenario and they are vulnerable to what seems like a switcheroo. Example—we get another estimate of GDP on Thursday and it may well look softer, nourishing the idea that the Fed can move earlier. Again, GDP is a background factor, not an immediate Fed driver.
Expectations are for both headline and core PCE inflation to slide only a little, if at all, with core down a measly 0.1%. This is not significant enough to name it a trend reversal after the lousy Q1 CPI data. And if the eurozone comes up with the same 2.7%, the ECB can cut while the US has to wait. The implication is that the current dollar weakness is “wrong” in terms of the economics and institutional context.
Sentiment cannot be wrong, but fact interpretation sure can be.
It’s time to be very , very careful and take only small positions In which you do not fall in love.
.
Logical Reason for FED to cut rate in Sep
these are from Best institutional Research analyst from Major banks.
not us.
here is when traders get confused on analysis
one analyst says sell other says buy,
market was designed that way to confuse Trader so some will buy and some will sell,
its nature you will find a reason reason behind your trader emotions always wins over logic,
to separate them is hard very very hard,
it takes years and lot of years of practice to see things differently,

if you take 5 analysis and compare them you may find
one good enough reason where 3 or 4 out or 5 analyst agrees on,
.
oh dear we don't pay now, before yes but not now,
we have Algorithm which scans the top financial websites like FT.com Bloomberg etc, etc
and then we get good enough sentiment data to prepare, our trades

but some analysis are too good to just keep to our self,
that is why i share
.
Logic says: Reasons for the Fed to cut rates
Avoid embarrassment from getting inflation wrong twice.
Normalize the yield curve.
Head off any recessionary tendencies.
Help housing via mortgage rates.
Help banks rollover commercial property loans.
Help the stock market.
Synchronize with the ECB (and Riksbank and SNB).
Help the current White House and/or avoid accusations of political bias if delayed to after the Nov election.
.
i hope it helps

When you say "our new research", do you mean FX Streets research, as this is copied word for word from them, and was published 19 hours ago.
Do you work for FX Street?

its a waste of time for me ...

wait for 3 months to confirm if ur system dont worth it, 1 trade is not enough to judge the future success

how do you determine these things beforehand...high/low of the week?

words out of my mouth

Commercial agenda. Submitted clean up report.