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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #826,721
  • May 23, 2024 3:18am May 23, 2024 3:18am
Quoting Headland
...it maybe/probably will be in event of an upside reaction - dependant on the forthcoming Uk data, but we may see supply emerge anywhere up to y/day's 2762 hi? 4hr below {image}
looks like Europe in general on course for a better economy. We don’t usually see EU data having an impact on GU but today we saw a spike of around 15 pips at 8.30 uk time
Insane in the Brain..
  • #826,722
  • May 23, 2024 3:21am May 23, 2024 3:21am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} DXY is made of 11% GBP and 57% Euro. And a news event like UK CPI directy affects GBP and Euro, so roughly about 68% of the DXY. A big move caused by UK or EU news is very very likely to make it's presence felt in DXY as well. No doubt it will affect GBP more, but saying it won't affect DXY at all is also not completely true. And for a matter fact, UK CPI indeed directly affected DXY. Just look at how DXY started trending up after the CPI release: (Orange line is the UK CPI h1 bar) {image}
US and the UK are running hot, simple
whats Bloomberg think about yesterday's CPI? it went from 50% probability to 12% of a drop in June
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #826,723
  • May 23, 2024 3:25am May 23, 2024 3:25am
Quoting Bones
{quote} US and the UK are running hot, simple whats Bloomberg think about yesterday's CPI? it went from 50% probability to 12% of a drop in June {image}
Hi. In any event now the Boe/Mpc won't want to do anything during the Uk general election campaign that could be seen as political - ie favoring the imcumbants.
Regards.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #826,724
  • May 23, 2024 3:27am May 23, 2024 3:27am
Quoting iiivb
I defend the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Stupidly Simple) method, I would like to share my Cable point of view. I agree that is too early to "guess" if Cable going up or down... it has the both chances very opened. Eventhough the HUGE spike on Friday, that can either be considered as a selling oportunity or as a buying one. Some MA crosses maybe pointing a reverse... other don't... so... I strongly recommend: STAY AWAY OF TRADING UNTIL TUESDAY! Let's remember xMas rally is coming soon, so maybe we should sit on...
That sounds like a solid strategy! How do you usually approach your trades during the xMas rally? Any specific indicators or patterns you look for?
  • #826,725
  • May 23, 2024 3:33am May 23, 2024 3:33am
Data seems mixed , maybe US data in a few hours will help decide the PA back to 126X or a move towards 128
Insane in the Brain..
  • #826,726
  • May 23, 2024 3:40am May 23, 2024 3:40am
GBP news over the last hour has mostly been positive, but already priced in.
We still we go down...you can fight it or trade it
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #826,727
  • May 23, 2024 3:43am May 23, 2024 3:43am
Quoting BeeTogether
Data seems mixed , maybe US data in a few hours will help decide the PA back to 126X or a move towards 128
Hi...re that Eu data effect @ 0830am UK time, yeh saw that - thought I had the wrong time re the Uk data just out, lol. Slim pickings so far today in a 27pip total range.
Regards.
------------------------------------------
Bit of a flag thing going on - on 1hr?


1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #826,728
  • May 23, 2024 3:52am May 23, 2024 3:52am
I read a running consolidating trend upwards, its still a broken bullish candle on the weekly
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #826,729
  • May 23, 2024 4:04am May 23, 2024 4:04am
Quoting Bones
{quote} US and the UK are running hot, simple whats Bloomberg think about yesterday's CPI? it went from 50% probability to 12% of a drop in June {image}
The price decided all yesterday mate. We talking now doesn't change the fact that daily closed as a pinbar/hammer. All and all cpi wasn't enough to give GU a big bullish candle
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #826,730
  • May 23, 2024 4:07am May 23, 2024 4:07am
Weekly running into a lot of well established resistance.
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #826,731
  • May 23, 2024 4:22am May 23, 2024 4:22am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} The price decided all yesterday mate. We talking now doesn't change the fact that daily closed as a pinbar/hammer. All and all cpi wasn't enough to give GU a big bullish candle
From my analysis the data wasn’t great , yes it beat the forecast but by a whisker and to be honest the forecast was very optimistic. We saw a drop yesterday before shooting up. This could be the fact that around 1pm as we dropped to the days lows, the PM was gathering his team to tell them about the election. The drop from yesterdays high could be the initial panic that we could be in for another leadership contest and spike as a relief. If US data is good we could see 12680 today. Also tomorrow is pretty much red data free as is Monday next week.

if GU is overbought we could see a technical rebound next week. However as always not sure
Insane in the Brain..
  • #826,732
  • May 23, 2024 4:29am May 23, 2024 4:29am
[quote=BeeTogether;14876996]{quote} From my analysis the data wasn’t great , yes it beat the forecast but by a whisker and to be honest the forecast was very optimistic.
agree the forecast was over optimistic, the market recognised that.The actual was still good, maybe better than expected.
Price action to me is bearish given all the data and the reaction to it. A change in government is also probably bearish... but that is down the track a bit
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #826,733
  • May 23, 2024 4:31am May 23, 2024 4:31am
Quoting axecap
Weekly running into a lot of well-established resistance. {image}
Hi. I see what you mean - for me it was a prev sw hi zone = prev res = pot res on that wkly t/f up to 2828, then after some failed attempts eventually breached to the upside to 2893, before a fall down to 2300...(hence zone is hollow on chart below.)
Regards.

Wkly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #826,734
  • May 23, 2024 4:34am May 23, 2024 4:34am
pivotline
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vankiepsauff@gmail
  • #826,735
  • May 23, 2024 4:38am May 23, 2024 4:38am
An H4 close below .2710 will be the clincher. But will need positive usd data later to make it happen.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #826,736
  • May 23, 2024 4:39am May 23, 2024 4:39am
Price Action is really frustrating me right now. I cannot determine my bias since it looks so messy. Market refuses to go lower or higher which make hard to make the decision to trade.
With courage, patience, and discipline, success is a matter of time.
  • #826,737
  • May 23, 2024 4:39am May 23, 2024 4:39am
...dly osc's had just tipped into o/b territory @ wed's 2762 hi...1hr is v.rangy now as price sells-off after the Uk data breaking flag pattern thingy (if that's what it is,) to the downside. If price drops further, remember the prev dly/minor wkly sw hi zone that starts@ 2709 is still intact on those t/f's, and on dly extends down to circa 2678, = prev res = pot rbs.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #826,738
  • May 23, 2024 4:40am May 23, 2024 4:40am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} From my analysis the data wasn’t great , yes it beat the forecast but by a whisker and to be honest the forecast was very optimistic. We saw a drop yesterday before shooting up. This could be the fact that around 1pm as we dropped to the days lows, the PM was gathering his team to tell them about the election. The drop from yesterdays high could be the initial panic that we could be in for another leadership contest and spike as a relief. If US data is good we could see 12680 today. Also tomorrow is pretty much red data free as is Monday...
Yep exactly data wasn't great although headline was high.

all goods, housing, clothing, alcohol, tobacco, furniture, restaurants & hotels lower than last month.

UK CPI was one of those "paper castle" reports. Headline on steroids but report itself, components and details were disappointing.

Just like the PMI today. UK Manufacturing PMI looked good but employment was just meh. And it just got sold
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #826,739
  • May 23, 2024 4:49am May 23, 2024 4:49am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} The price decided all yesterday mate. We talking now doesn't change the fact that daily closed as a pinbar/hammer. All and all cpi wasn't enough to give GU a big bullish candle
Consolidation candle, we are talking about rates and probability that plummeted yesterday.
Why? Because the reading was HOT and STICKY, only you have to read it on monthly data.
The proof in the pudding is whether we will lower rates with a 0.3 reading which is way out of range next meeting...Bloomberg says no! Nordling says yes.
I agree the election is another fly in the ointment but the news and probability plummet came first.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #826,740
  • May 23, 2024 4:51am May 23, 2024 4:51am
Quoting JameRomeo168
Price Action is really frustrating me right now. I cannot determine my bias since it looks so messy. Market refuses to go lower or higher which make hard to make the decision to trade.
It depends on the time frame you are looking at. if you look at the last 6 candles on the m15 chart what do you see?
and then consider the data that came out during that period.
Its all just one persons opinion
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