if gbpusd reaches 1.26083 area by 12:00 am close in that area 4 hr would be a good sell and short to the downside close before news as might liquidity grab then re enter
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Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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short trump and go long the deepstate
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{quote} GU So, like, you know how it goes in forex trading, right? It's like a never-ending game of manipulation. It's always about those big players trying to mess with us retail traders, dragging us into the wrong side of trades. BTW, those ar my newbie view only, I may got it wrong.
Today is CPI , volatility ahead , I think rate would be bullish on the markets as US election draws closer .
Expecting headline CPI inflation to come in at 3.4% and Core CPI at 3.6%.
Mark the first monthly decline in inflation since January 2024.
However, prediction markets are currently showing a 29% chance of inflation ABOVE 3.4%
.
There's a 17% chance that inflation comes in above 3.5%, marking the 3rd straight monthly increase.
If inflation does in fact come in above 3.5%, the Fed may begin discussing rate HIKES again.
Clearly, depends how they alter the formula.
Easy to "bring inflation down" when you arbitrarily exclude data.
They keep on changing the formula to match the expected result.
Whatever the numbers the print on CPI today, it is goinna be 100% chance this number doesn’t represent reality.
Honest question, can we expect integrity in the data?
On Technical side.
I wait for the knee jerk reaction, then decide on which side to follow.
I come from the future.
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{quote} GU feat CPI Today is CPI , volatility ahead They keep on changing the formula to match the expected result. Whatever the numbers the print on CPI today, it is goinna be 100% chance this number doesn’t represent reality.
And btw, I don't think, given the size of this FX market, that any of the big players give a rats about what we retail traders think or are doing. We are way too insignificant on the grander scale of things, like ants v ocean liner (unless you're trading GME or KOSS stock via X posts) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/love-...050236468.html
Good option to stand aside on the currencies until the data is out and the dust settles (if that's your mojo). The indices and oil have my interest atm.
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{quote} Im watching gbpusd very very closely!!!
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{quote} Of course there isn't much integrity in the data, BUT it will at least reflect some baseline info from the PPI data yesterday and it would be glaringly obvious to all and sundry if there was a sizeable divergence, and therefore be a bureaucratic statisticians embarrassment and difficult for the Fed to defend with any credibility. And btw, I don't think, given the size of this FX market, that any of the big players give a rats about what we retail traders think or are doing. We are way too insignificant on the grander scale of things, like...
Appreciate your view.
While it's true that data integrity can sometimes be questionable, there's still value in analyzing it alongside other economic indicators like the PPI data you mentioned.
And you make a valid point about the relative insignificance of retail traders in the larger FX market.
It's essential to recognize where we stand in the grand scheme of things.
Thanks for sharing the article link—it looks like an interesting read.
As for trading, focusing on indices and oil sounds like a prudent strategy, especially given the uncertainty surrounding currency markets before the CPI data is released.
Let's see how things unfold and adjust our approach accordingly.
Best Wishes and trade safe on CPI Data
I come from the future.
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I'm high on trading, cant you tell?