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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #17,081
  • Jul 4, 2007 5:28pm Jul 4, 2007 5:28pm
Quoting pinchapip
Long the cable???? Thats a NO NO !!!

Today is the 4th of July...tomorrow is George Soros birthday...lets short the pound !!!!
Short Cable:

http://www.lifeprint.com/asl101/signjpegs/s/stink.1.jpg

Gotta go. Be back when my broker gets back
  • #17,082
  • Jul 4, 2007 5:57pm Jul 4, 2007 5:57pm
Well I think we have a bit more buying in the lead up to BOE announcement, But I think once it is announced cable will drop and I will have my shorts ready.

This is more based on my fundamental view that 5.75% is fully priced in. If rate on hold then its very good for bears!
  • #17,083
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:00pm Jul 4, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting pinchapip
Long the cable???? Thats a NO NO !!!

Today is the 4th of July...tomorrow is George Soros birthday...lets short the pound !!!!

And friday is mine and George W Bush's birthday.

I should copy that picture of the guy holding his nose.

The expression anyone is better than that guy applies to Pres. Bush.
  • #17,084
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:06pm Jul 4, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting el_duende
Well I think we have a bit more buying in the lead up to BOE announcement, But I think once it is announced cable will drop and I will have my shorts ready.

This is more based on my fundamental view that 5.75% is fully priced in. If rate on hold then its very good for bears!
I agree but it always comes down to the reaction. If it doesn't drop on word of 0.25 hike or no hike, then it may go higher still.

Because the flip side works also, that the concensus is a for a hike so if there is none or only 0.25 many expect a drop. If it does drop, go with it. But if it doesn't then the shorts will be squeezed once again. Let the market tell you.
  • #17,085
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:14pm Jul 4, 2007 6:14pm
I closed my 2.0164 long trade @ 2.0194 and opened a short trade and I changed SL to BE, and for the wise traders who think that cable is a one way pair pointing upwards only to calm down, the pair won't go up till infinity, I'm waiting for 2.0131 to be broken tommorow to open the way down to my short trade, I'm satisfied with this trade, as I won't be losing anything, either it will be closed @ BE or I will collect some good profit
  • #17,086
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:20pm Jul 4, 2007 6:20pm
what are we flipping coins here ?

.25% has already priced in the market, however still some crazy guys might buy and push the market on this price, so I will buy//sell the break of the channel , as simple as that.

there is no logic is taking a position and hope the market would go with that position, then this is not trading it would be gambling, and I have met a few gambler in forex, they have better chances in forex than the casino
  • #17,087
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:25pm Jul 4, 2007 6:25pm
I just opened a long trade at 2.0160.

I believe we will see buying on run up to interest rate announcement

We are in a small upward range and I believe a buy here will have good R:R

On my 1 hour system there is a buy entry (dont normally use 1 hour as too short a time frame)


What do you think?
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  • #17,088
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:27pm Jul 4, 2007 6:27pm
the channel is getting narrow now I am afarid of a whipsaw, it has been a while since we saw one, and lots of orders are stacked on both side of the market.

Be careful traders there might be some dirty moves to hit the tight stoploss on big accounts.
  • #17,089
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:31pm Jul 4, 2007 6:31pm
If no hike we might see the break of the 1.9992 before the end of this week
  • #17,090
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:35pm Jul 4, 2007 6:35pm
Quoting el_duende
I just opened a long trade at 2.0160.

I believe we will see buying on run up to interest rate announcement

We are in a small upward range and I believe a buy here will have good R:R

On my 1 hour system there is a buy entry (dont normally use 1 hour as too short a time frame)


What do you think?
if the BOE didn't increase the rate or we have the expected rate which was already priced in, then we are talking about 50-150 pip move down, its not that strong move as there is no data from US to support the US dollar, its just traders collecting profit and getting out of their trades.

If BOE increased the rate beyond the predicated rate then we will saw a 200+ move as trader will jump to a high swap rate currency.

in both cases its worth to wait for the news and lose 15-30 pip during the news to confirm the entry.

put your entry at the channel with stoploss 10 pips lower than the other side of the channel

Good luck everyone , and watch out there might be a whipsaw in this move lots of orders are stacked on both side of the channel and brokers might take advantge of that
  • #17,091
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:45pm Jul 4, 2007 6:45pm
Quoting 4xHome
if the BOE didn't increase the rate or we have the expected rate which was already priced in, then we are talking about 50-150 pip move down, its not that strong move as there is no data from US to support the US dollar, its just traders collecting profit and getting out of their trades.

If BOE increased the rate beyond the predicated rate then we will saw a 200+ move as trader will jump to a high swap rate currency.

in both cases its worth to wait for the news and lose 15-30 pip during the news to confirm the entry.

put your entry at the channel with stoploss 10 pips lower than the other side of the channel

Good luck everyone , and watch out there might be a whipsaw in this move lots of orders are stacked on both side of the channel and brokers might take advantge of that
Sure it does have a small stop loss if breaks down out the channel, I should have said this is a quick trade aiming to get 20 - 50 pips, I will be closing it before announcement. I think we will see buying on the run up to it.
  • #17,092
  • Jul 4, 2007 7:01pm Jul 4, 2007 7:01pm
No change from london fix i see
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #17,093
  • Jul 4, 2007 7:22pm Jul 4, 2007 7:22pm
A little weakness at the moment. But just down to weds low so far.
  • #17,094
  • Jul 4, 2007 8:38pm Jul 4, 2007 8:38pm
Quoting el_duende
This is more based on my fundamental view that 5.75% is fully priced in. If rate on hold then its very good for bears!
As usual, for an interest rate statement, it not about the interest rate. It is about the statement. The interest rate per se is already traded.

Price got back to where I left it before broker close. So I got back in long.
  • #17,095
  • Jul 4, 2007 8:49pm Jul 4, 2007 8:49pm
I thought I read somewhere there won't be a statement if the rates are held unchanged. If interest rates are increased, the statement accompanying the decision will be watched closely to assess future policy decisions. But only IF.....
  • #17,096
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:30pm Jul 4, 2007 9:30pm
No statement. Does the BOE do that.

Not the Fed. They make statements in between statements. Even Greenspan can't stop himself since retiring. He is probably preparing some to be released monthly to the press after he has gone to the hereafter.
  • #17,097
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:13pm Jul 4, 2007 10:13pm
Quoting cesarnc
Any chance something really really bad is gonna happen in England?
"Long live the Queen"

For another 50 Years? William/Harry will surely revolt.
  • #17,098
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:19pm Jul 4, 2007 10:19pm
Or maybe the Queen might abdicate to Paris Hilton.

And she will rename royal residence as Buckingham Hilton.

"That's hot"!!
  • #17,099
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:54pm Jul 4, 2007 10:54pm
Sometimes i wonder why "terorists attack" often occurs during interest rate statements? May be they trade forex also? and everytime the market dont go with what they trade they start to "bomb" some place?
Its like.. "Oh shit.. i shorted from 2.00 and my s/l almost got hit.. lets bomb the airport.. maybe that will bring cable lower.." kinda things??
  • #17,100
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:59pm Jul 4, 2007 10:59pm
Quoting dd33
Sometimes i wonder why "terorists attack" often occurs during interest rate statements? May be they trade forex also? and everytime the market dont go with what they trade they start to "bomb" some place?
Its like.. "Oh shit.. i shorted from 2.00 and my s/l almost got hit.. lets bomb the airport.. maybe that will bring cable lower.." kinda things??
Oh yeah, maybe kill a few but anything to get out of a lousy trade. :surprised
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