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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #16,981
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:00pm Jul 3, 2007 6:00pm
Hey Cesar...I forgot to put a disclaimer in my last post..

I'm not a MARAJA.

I'm not a politician.

I'm not rolling in dough.

And last but not least, I DO NOT live off of dishonest money I earned in Brazil at the cost of malnourished children and starving elders.

I left Brazil with a few thousand dollars and worked my way up. I worked as an immigrant in Geneva Switzerland and around South Florida untill I got to the point of making a living through forex.

I know nobody asked but.....just the idea of somebody thinking about me as a rich corrupt politician...maraja..or something else...disgusts me..hehhehehehe !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,982
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:31pm Jul 3, 2007 6:31pm
GbpUsd hit 2.0186 high yesterday completing the 3-week bull trend from Friday 8 June. Further advance will again focus on 2.0173 trend high and 2.0186 26-year high. Initial support holds 2.0100 former resistance. On the down side, a return under 1.9900 could deep toward 1.9700 and 1.9659 (50% retracement of the 1.9184 to 2.0134 advance) next support.
Analysis by ACM Forex
Give me patience
  • #16,983
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:40pm Jul 3, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting m00jiman
i just checked the news as well, but wasn't it blackstone group who had stock slump on first few days of IPO? 26 billion? damn, thats a lot of money.
Attached Image
  • #16,984
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:41pm Jul 3, 2007 6:41pm
I love this thread during consolidation periods. Everyone is just bored and crazy and references to celebrities and women always come up. fascinating stuff.

Now this resistance thigie, a little bird told me it will be over in a bang, bringing EUR up or down with it. I'm out of the pair right now, hope you guys have fun
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #16,985
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:52pm Jul 3, 2007 6:52pm
Cesar! How did you learn all about forex and how to trade your way? I speak Arkansas English and stay lost in Forex trading. I enjoy your posts. Grant PS What did you do to free4444?
  • #16,986
  • Jul 3, 2007 7:18pm Jul 3, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting grantco100
Cesar! How did you learn all about forex and how to trade your way? I speak Arkansas English and stay lost in Forex trading. I enjoy your posts. Grant PS What did you do to free4444?
What did "I" do to him? He is shorting cable since 2.0000. I didn't have to do anything. Besides, I actually shared several charts and views and so forth, but, nooooooo, "cable is going down much faster than most people think", "Target 9730", that's the killer: "I'm dollar bullish"

I learned by doing it, losing some money I could afford to lose. I decided to give it 1 year to trade before trying to make a living out of it. Fortunately, I have a job that pays my bills and does not take much of my time. So losing a couple of thousands (or spending?) + 1 year looks like a cheap and fast learning if you compare to MBAs or something like that.

I still have two major deficiencies:

- I take too much time to absorb that the market has changed behavior (like from an extended trending to an extended correction period). So I take some time and it costs me some pips until I finally realize that

- The understanding of all potencially strong fundamentals that might hit the market. For instance, I've never heard of this "10yr Treasury" until it hit my USD shorts. Again, I took too much time to realize that I was in the wrong way

And last but not least, the usual psychologic crap. Overtrading, getting emotional, making stupid decisions, etc... Working on all of that, day by day.

Today I took a short in Cable but cut it for -20 when I realize I was trading for no reason. Then I went long and cut for +2, same reason. End of the day, it was this crappy day we saw.
  • #16,987
  • Jul 3, 2007 7:37pm Jul 3, 2007 7:37pm
Cesar! Thanks for your honest opinions. I like the way you trade. I am still learning (and down). I have some shorts way down and I hedging on the rest of my account. Awaiting the BOE news and the non farm labor report. Then Ill try to worm out of some of this. Grant
  • #16,988
  • Jul 3, 2007 7:54pm Jul 3, 2007 7:54pm
I think everybody who gets into the forex world tries, consciously or subconsciously to find the "holy grail". Wouldn't it be amazing to find a formula, identify a pattern, or come up with a strategy that will work 100% of the time so you just apply it, relax, and collect the gain????

Well...sometimes I find myself still trying to find some kind of holy grail, even if I know it does not exist.

The market is unpredictable even when it follows a well established trend. Big banks "manipulate" something that is supposed to "happen" naturally. Fundamentals and technicals only work until they lead you to a margin call.

Even if I find myself deviating from my philosophy from time to time I know that the following is what appears (at least to me) to be what comes closest to a "holy grail"

1- A little bit goes a long way

2- bark with the big dogs

3- get out while the music is still playing

As simple and maybe "silly" as it may seem !!!!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,989
  • Jul 3, 2007 9:41pm Jul 3, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Sun trend is far from finished but futures is selling open intrest is dropping volumes drying up there seems to be no more buyers left so order flow should change and go offer. how deep how long not sure but i will exit when i feel its right. and if she plows through the top it wont be going far. I think there is more money to be made by the makers Killing the late or weak longs. But anything is possible


The last quater of that channel is the buy zone

If this call is correct, otherwise there is more money to be made making the shorts cover. Today was a down close, one of the few lately. Only thing is it didn't even close into the midpoint of yesterday's daily bar.

Once the rate annoucement is out of the way there might be a big reversal but if and until it does reverse at some point or SOME, ANY weakness shows - it is silly to contemplate shorting.

Anyone that does is trying to jump the gun and there is simply no reason to. There will be plenty of pips to make when it goes down.

Enough already, I've said it for the last time.

Some are probably saying phew, I was hoping he stop beating this to death.

+ + +

Now about that last quarter of the channel? An arrow would help explain where you are talking about. And is that a regular trend channel, linear regression, pitchfork or something else.
  • #16,990
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:10am Jul 4, 2007 1:10am
cable just passed through 2.02 and y'all are sleeping or something... WAKE UP.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,991
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:33am Jul 4, 2007 1:33am
lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,992
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:33am Jul 4, 2007 1:33am
Relax buddy!!! It will hit 2.0268 before a major correction anyways !!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,993
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:49am Jul 4, 2007 1:49am
Quoting pinchapip
Relax buddy!!! It will hit 2.0268 before a major correction anyways !!!
why??
  • #16,994
  • Jul 4, 2007 2:00am Jul 4, 2007 2:00am
I'm following this chart. Thats my opinion !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU chart.jpg Size: 68 KB
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,995
  • Jul 4, 2007 2:35am Jul 4, 2007 2:35am
quite right, only thing is that right now is summer period, and its not yet clear, are we in range trading or trnd trading...but my opininon is basicaly the same as yours, still sitting in losses by tooked short at 2.0130, waiting for my sl to get git. that trade was a mistake
  • #16,996
  • Edited 3:02am Jul 4, 2007 2:44am | Edited 3:02am
What is this?! A retracement or what?! Maybe, I can grab about 5-10pips in this movement, I'll let my limit work for me...

In 60min chart, still bullish, but now, no idea...^^

A little retracement ahead to BOE is always good for me (hoping)... UK Consumer Confidence is lower than expected anyway... Should see some pips for bearish, before continuing the bullish trend

German services PMI rises to highest level since June 2006. The index is at 58.9 in June, up from 57.5 previously and above consensus 58.0.
[efxnow]

Shall the euro win against the local currency, cable shall bear...^^
Hello World
  • #16,997
  • Jul 4, 2007 2:52am Jul 4, 2007 2:52am
Quoting Plutonite
I love this thread during consolidation periods. Everyone is just bored and crazy and references to celebrities and women always come up. fascinating stuff.

Now this resistance thigie, a little bird told me it will be over in a bang, bringing EUR up or down with it. I'm out of the pair right now, hope you guys have fun
Makes me wonder... where are all the female traders in the forex market?
  • #16,998
  • Jul 4, 2007 2:59am Jul 4, 2007 2:59am
Dont think so.. I think it will only range around 130-200 until BOE news. Unless got some big player using this low volume market to move price and do some whipsaw / stop hunting / whatever... (would love to see cesarnc's cat with AK47 pic again)
  • #16,999
  • Jul 4, 2007 3:11am Jul 4, 2007 3:11am
Quoting dd33
Dont think so.. I think it will only range around 130-200 until BOE news. Unless got some big player using this low volume market to move price and do some whipsaw / stop hunting / whatever... (would love to see cesarnc's cat with AK47 pic again)
How do you know? Is there any speculation on this news?! How if the technical plays more important part today?
Hello World
  • #17,000
  • Jul 4, 2007 3:21am Jul 4, 2007 3:21am
  •  dado26
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Plan your trade and trade your plan | 180 Posts
Hey guys...
I will stay out of the market today. Everything is in expectation of tommorow news and truely I dont belive cable can go drasticly higher anymore......so..
..waiting for tommorow

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