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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #16,841
  • Jul 2, 2007 8:40pm Jul 2, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
But BY FAR that guy free444 was the killer. shorting the crap out of cable
Well, nobody can say that i didnt warn him.

Quoting free4440273
good to see people like yourself, who offer proper, sound advice. yeah, i could be totally wrong here and end up broke
I got a few pips when the run started and then i stopped until rate day. I confess i never thought that multi year highs were in place again before new information, but i didnt put that aside.

This is very simple. No hike = correction (no doubt about that i think) But "no hike" does not mean apocalypse because as we saw today, dolar is being kicked by himself. Again i confess that before this bullish run, i thought that a no hike would mean at least a double bottom at 1.9621, but after today, i think that the market is starting to price in the studies that say that despite any kind of short term news, Europe will indeed grow faster than US in the next years, not forgetting a powerful daily trend line where the run begun allied with the minutes.

So..

What im seeing is. No hike = short, but, Drop just until daily trend line or 618 Fib. And waiting until further info but like a bullish waiting.

Bullish waiting means few action but waiting for a bullish trigger.

Anyone shares this view? No hike and the price will go down but with bullish target like just a retraction until 1.98s and up again.
  • #16,842
  • Jul 2, 2007 8:51pm Jul 2, 2007 8:51pm
I say no hike = drop to no lower than 2.0000
  • #16,843
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:03pm Jul 2, 2007 9:03pm
The last fews days all the retail traders have been slowly seduced to the long side. All the stops up above have been run. In my humble opinion there is not much profit for the Brokers or Banks by running the pound higher. Slowly dropping the price will suck in more longs. So I feel we will see this drop and rise enough to have traders take new long positions. Stops to the down side are now ripe for picking. Logic says the GBP must go up. BOE is going to raise the rates so its has to go up. We all know how logical the Forex market is!

I feel the low liquidity of a holiday market is prime time for a major correction.

If BOE does not raise rates: Pound goes down.
If BOE raises rates: Pound may spike 50 pips but then goes down. Why? Because it is not logical and a ton more stops will be ready to pick off.
Then they play the game the other way.
  • #16,844
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:05pm Jul 2, 2007 9:05pm


Turtle

You have to notice that market is pricing in one hike now and more before the end of the year. No hike could mean no hike And... no more hikes during a long time if cpi cools. So no hike = unprice 2 hikes.

But by the way. Can you comment on June 7th drop? (Last interest rate statement.)
  • #16,845
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:16pm Jul 2, 2007 9:16pm
I believe you are right BILL3 !!!

Lately it seems like the cable is completely in the hands of speculators and they like to play the peek-a-boo game.

When everybody thinks the cable will crash...voila...cable sky rockets...now we could see it go the other way around.

Wanna be safe??? Just trade against the masses... safer ??? Stay out for now!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,846
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:33pm Jul 2, 2007 9:33pm
Quoting Warper


Turtle

You have to notice that market is pricing in one hike now and more before the end of the year. No hike could mean no hike And... no more hikes during a long time if cpi cools. So no hike = unprice 2 hikes.

But by the way. Can you comment on June 7th drop? (Last interest rate statement.)
The market usually prices in hikes and there is talk of at least two more, as of right now one is due to hit on Thursday, but the BOE is known for keeping folks off guard. So there is no telling what could happen once the hike hits the wires, only the market will decide.

As far as June 7th, the market was looking for another hike that did not come, so the pound dropped. But after the BOE minutes came out, and the market found out the vote was closer than expected, the pound took off like a rocket, which broke multi-year highs today....


Just my two pips.
  • #16,847
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:39pm Jul 2, 2007 9:39pm
I think cable will top out once all the folks here stop calling for a top. Once the last bear throws in the towel.

But what I do know is that once it turns will be the time to go short whether or not GBP rate hike is priced in so thats bearish or no-hike is bearish or if news from USA is positive cable will plunge, etc.

If the trend is up - (like now) since 6/8/07 or if you don't like that bottom since 6/14/07 - then the trend is up whether or not the fundies change. Whether EW/fibs/moons/tides/cycles etc say it should change direction. Whether or not interest rates change. And especially if our chart shows it can't go any higher or is at an alltime price high or overbought level.

Fundamentals and technicals are not absolutes and markets flucuate constantly around so-called fair value under and over estimating where it "should" be. That is what makes a market.

But getting locked into one point of view, it has been said that even a broken clock is right twice a day. So yes at some point cable will turn. But why keep shorting it while it continues to climb. Better to wait on the sidelines till the turn comes. But then that is only playing one side of the game.
  • #16,848
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:48pm Jul 2, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
I think cable will top out once all the folks here stop calling for a top. Once the last bear throws in the towel.

But what I do know is that once it turns will be the time to go short whether or not GBP rate hike is priced in so thats bearish or no-hike is bearish or if news from USA is positive cable will plunge, etc.

If the trend is up - (like now) since 6/8/07 or if you don't like that bottom since 6/14/07 - then the trend is up whether or not the fundies change. Whether EW/fibs/moons/tides/cycles etc say it should change direction. Whether or not interest rates change. And especially if our chart shows it can't go any higher or is at an alltime price high or overbought level.

Fundamentals and technicals are not absolutes and markets flucuate constantly around so-called fair value under and over estimating where it "should" be. That is what makes a market.

But getting locked into one point of view, it has been said that even a broken clock is right twice a day. So yes at some point cable will turn. But why keep shorting it while it continues to climb. Better to wait on the sidelines till the turn comes. But then that is only playing one side of the game.
Excellent point, and this is why I want to keep on learning.....
  • #16,849
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:59pm Jul 2, 2007 9:59pm
Perhaps the only universal truth that applies to trading is this: The market is ALWAYS right.
  • #16,850
  • Jul 2, 2007 10:26pm Jul 2, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting forexrules
Perhaps the only universal truth that applies to trading is this: The market is ALWAYS right.
That is very true.. No matter which direction it goes (up or down) it will always goes to the right

Seems like another warzone of "cable going up" vs "cable will drop like hell" session is over.. EW guy = out, free444 = out, who is next in the line??
  • #16,851
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:50pm Jul 2, 2007 11:50pm
Oh, I wouldn't say out just yet. They may return at some point. I think in free's case he is waiting till the actual downturn/retrace. So he can claim to have actually called it. Yuck yuck.

They don't get it that you don't need to call absolute tops and bottoms to make money. Just ride the trend whichever way it goes.
  • #16,852
  • Jul 3, 2007 12:05am Jul 3, 2007 12:05am
Quoting SunTrader
Oh, I wouldn't say out just yet. They may return at some point. I think in free's case he is waiting till the actual downturn/retrace. So he can claim to have actually called it. Yuck yuck.

They don't get it that you don't need to call absolute tops and bottoms to make money. Just ride the trend whichever way it goes.
juz when would the trend go for bearish....? im still waiting.
  • #16,853
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:09am Jul 3, 2007 1:09am
Quoting SunTrader
Oh, I wouldn't say out just yet. They may return at some point. I think in free's case he is waiting till the actual downturn/retrace. So he can claim to have actually called it. Yuck yuck.

They don't get it that you don't need to call absolute tops and bottoms to make money. Just ride the trend whichever way it goes.
U got some point there.. But whats the point of standing on the sideline and not joining this fun - full of humor thread just to aclaim that ur so called "prophecies" is "true".. Just be a gentleman.. admit that u are wrong and have fun in this thread.. I think its a lot easier that way.. and stress free also..

Its a big loss cant take part in enjoying cesarnc / bravado's humor pics..
  • #16,854
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:14am Jul 3, 2007 1:14am
Quoting hijackxx@hotmai
juz when would the trend go for bearish....? im still waiting.
If we know the "when".. we would all have already become a millionaire..
I think its wiser not to try to go ahead of the market.. besides.. when the market have decide to go bearish.. there are still a lot of pips to catch.. not need to hurry.. or u'll end up getting ur s/l hit and ur money being transfered to another trader that goes along with the trend..
  • #16,855
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:35am Jul 3, 2007 1:35am
UP +135 on g/u long.......

Hrrm....maybe I should take profit and sleep
  • #16,856
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:51am Jul 3, 2007 1:51am
I was wrong in my short from 130, but still holdn, coz sl is above 200. Life is full of crap
  • #16,857
  • Jul 3, 2007 2:49am Jul 3, 2007 2:49am
If London starts buying from 2.0160 where it found the short-term support right now, it will be hard to predict how high it might go before the BoE statement. The closest magnet is 2.0225.

I am long from 2.0097 with stop at 2.0147 and I have no intend to short as of right now.
  • #16,858
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:03am Jul 3, 2007 3:03am
[quote=dd33;1483820]If we know the "when".. we would all have already become a millionaire.. [/qutoe]
and if that happens who would clean up my cars and my garden??

Quoting dd33
I think its wiser not to try to go ahead of the market.. besides.. when the market have decide to go bearish.. there are still a lot of pips to catch.. not need to hurry.. or u'll end up getting ur s/l hit and ur money being transfered to another trader that goes along with the trend..
Thnx for ur advise. And did u mean to wait for the BOE news, too? As some traders are also waiting for BOE of thursday??
  • #16,859
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:03am Jul 3, 2007 3:03am
I saw this GBP/USD starts to retrace a bit, maybe max. 30-50pips, my order triggered, and now +5pips

It will be dangerous I think, maybe I will just take a little and go out, too may speculations here...(Scary...)
Hello World
  • #16,860
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:09am Jul 3, 2007 3:09am
I think .130 make a better support than .160. and havent seen being tested yet.. (chances to buy dips or short on breakout) will watch closely as london still undesicive in my opinion.. NY may be?
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