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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #16,781
  • Edited 12:03pm Jul 2, 2007 11:52am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting cesarnc
Go to hell gooner.

You and all you morons trying to outsmart the market.

Shit, all I want is another view that makes sense as to help me make up my mind. But all you bearish cock suckers have is a this thirst for 500 pips down the hole, while this fucking pair is already 500 pips up from its last low.
Ooooohhhh.... Excuse me sir for being apologetic. Albeit in a moronic way, it would seem.

I would like to take this opportunity on behalf of all morons to offer sincerest forelock tugging to an esteemed elder (foul-mothed) statesman of this forum.

I assure you that my bearish sentiment (in your eyes unsubstantiated by conventional technical chart metrics) is a mixture of my take on forex logic and what I consider to be an inflated trend. It is my opinion and I stand by it. The current price high is 20 points above where I forecasted initially but doesn't change my opinion about where this pair is heading.

I get the feeling that if peoples opinions don't co-incide with your own then they must be fools. Foolish I may be but I know this pair will eventually turn. When it does I will catch the ride and make my lost pips plus many more. In the meantime I will make pips elsewhere trading the inside bar.

Sorry to have offended you.
  • #16,782
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:56am Jul 2, 2007 11:56am
Quoting SeekingLight
Cesarnc....I'd change my language on that post before a mod sees it, you're normally a calmer guy
Consider it done, thanks
  • #16,783
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:57am Jul 2, 2007 11:57am
Quoting fx1711
Ah classic..its always the same story, when currency starts making new highs or low against usd, its always not high or low enought and all these what ifs...eventually it wont sustain the breakout and always return to its comfort level...
I totally agree - but surely 'comfort levels' change ? it's been 2.0000 for a while - why shouldn't it change to 2.0500 ? or 2.1000 ?
  • #16,784
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:58am Jul 2, 2007 11:58am
Quoting goonergonebad

I get the feeling that if peoples opinions don't co-incide with your own then they must be fools. Foolish I may be but I know this pair will eventually turn. When it does I will catch the ride and make my lost pips plus many more. In the meantime I will make pips elsewhere trading the inside bar.

Sorry to have offended you.

Not at all gooner. I just a reason other than "I still think it will". But since 2.0000 all I get is "that's it, my guts telling me down now".
  • #16,785
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:16pm Jul 2, 2007 12:16pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
anyone have a view on were cable is going now, according to info I'm looking at we have hit .0174 (resistance), in theory we should now see a bounce to .01 before the next leg up.

new to trading so still learning to follow trend and hunt the best point to take pips on the turn
  • #16,786
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:37pm Jul 2, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
Consider it done, thanks
Didn't mean to sound so patronizing, sorry

Just seems there's a lot of emotion boiling in these fastpaced discussion (and pipburning ) threads and I can remember back when I was just as bad. Trying to save some souls from the same misfortune

But maybe it's a rite of passage, who knows

I'ma listen to myself now and talk less and trade more.
Or rather less, today seems to be settling and I need exercise, food, sleep..

Time to move stops, take stock and wait for the daily close.

I highly recommend anyone wondering where when and why things move to read up some on price action(public James thread here ), I can only say it helped me a lot..charts went from totally foreign and obscured to a lot more read- and understandable..


And since I think this advice is never wasted in a thread like this and just told this someone via PM, too:

what is most important of all:
1. decide on a system
2. test it. thoroughly. see if it can be trusted. see that YOU!!!!! feel you can trust it, and know WHY! you can trust it!
3. demo it. make sure you can react in a live environment to it
4. see whether you make any mistakes, gambles, etc. learn how to use patience, discipline and follow the rules. have a money management system (1% risk of account sized to every stop size when you take a position, never more than 5% total risk open at once e.g.)
5. be profitable for 8-12 weeks in a row(!) on DEMO preferably
6. realize you're now a good trader, go live, make money

Alternatively to demo open a 50$ account with Oanda and use that money instead but never any "real" amounts before reaching step 6


Rough outline, but you get the idea..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #16,787
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:38pm Jul 2, 2007 12:38pm
Hey people I would like to pay your attention to the fact that the last Elliot Wave is forming. In my way of thinking, it wouldn't last long to form and will show us some movement down.
Attached Image
  • #16,788
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:41pm Jul 2, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
Not at all gooner. I just a reason other than "I still think it will". But since 2.0000 all I get is "that's it, my guts telling me down now".
I saw your earlier weekly chart in today's posts and I concur that the general trend is technically up. However, if you put the technical analysis to one side for a moment and consider a subjective alternative to your objective graphical position then I propose that the cable market is severely overbought and inflated to the point of pin pricking deflation.
Primarily, the interest hike is priced in by most of the major stakeholders, a large proportion of which will even have priced in a 0.5% hike. So, a hike if it happens will probably not register (medium term) more than 100 pips for 0.25 and 200 pips for 0.5. That said (earlier post), I am not convinced that a hike will even happen this month. Add to this the definite potential for better than projected US fundamentals results this week and we should see a dramatic reversal of fortunes for cable sooner rather than later.
I would love to be able to show you a supporting graphic and hard facts to underpin my theory, but I can only offer my subjective views.

It is compelling to hear the technically sound thoughts and reasoning of trend gurus such as WTB and others here on the forum but blind faith is a difficult skill to acquire when your logic is screaming at you that this can't be right there has got to be some other reason for this. etc.

Any way. I await the next IB (could be this hour).
  • #16,789
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:46pm Jul 2, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting goonergonebad
I saw your earlier weekly chart in today's posts and I concur that the general trend is technically up. However, if you put the technical analysis to one side for a moment and consider a subjective alternative to your objective graphical position then I propose that the cable market is severely overbought and inflated to the point of pin pricking deflation.
Primarily, the interest hike is priced in by most of the major stakeholders, a large proportion of which will even have priced in a 0.5% hike. So, a hike if it happens will probably not register (medium term) more than 100 pips for 0.25 and 200 pips for 0.5. That said (earlier post), I am not convinced that a hike will even happen this month. Add to this the definite potential for better than projected US fundamentals results this week and we should see a dramatic reversal of fortunes for cable sooner rather than later.
I would love to be able to show you a supporting graphic and hard facts to underpin my theory, but I can only offer my subjective views.
I also think this run is over extended. However, this is no GBP alone here. The recent moves were much more a dollar selloff than Pound going up. Check EURGBP and you'll see that Euro went up much faster then Cable.

Dollar-index is breaking down an important level now, which calls for continuation rather then bouncing back.

If dollar is now doomed to the drain, it is not BOE's decision that is gonna change that.
  • #16,790
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:48pm Jul 2, 2007 12:48pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Didn't mean to sound so patronizing, sorry

Just seems there's a lot of emotion boiling in these fastpaced discussion (and pipburning ) threads and I can remember back when I was just as bad. Trying to save some souls from the same misfortune
And I didn't mean to sound sarcastic. I really appreciated your heads-up. Afterall there's no point in being banned from the forum for that kind of reason.
  • #16,791
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:50pm Jul 2, 2007 12:50pm
cable goin dowwwnnnnnnnnn... lol.. okok i was just kiddin', don't yell at me! =/

im stayin out of all pairs today, too much on my head to trade. came here to check on you guys and its heated in here, hotter than outside weather. but of course, its nice day out here in DC, so im gonna enjoy that.

big pippin spendin' Cheese!! HAHA
  • #16,792
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:51pm Jul 2, 2007 12:51pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Just foound this snippet of info.


GBP/USD Wave 5 Not Done Yet
, the GBP/USD has broken above its 15 year high of 2.0130 which satisfies the minimum upside expectations for wave 5. The 5th wave of the entire rally from 1.7046 is unfolding as an ending diagonal (from 1.8515). The upper resistance line for the diagonal is at 2.0283 today. A small 5 wave decline (after a break above 2.0131) will signal that it is time to get bearish.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...ne/gbpusd2.gif
  • #16,793
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:00pm Jul 2, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting MPP
Just foound this snippet of info.


GBP/USD Wave 5 Not Done Yet
, the GBP/USD has broken above its 15 year high of 2.0130 which satisfies the minimum upside expectations for wave 5. The 5th wave of the entire rally from 1.7046 is unfolding as an ending diagonal (from 1.8515). The upper resistance line for the diagonal is at 2.0283 today. A small 5 wave decline (after a break above 2.0131) will signal that it is time to get bearish.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...ne/gbpusd2.gif




Hi MPP

Put bluntly, that "snippet" looks like absolute rubbish.

What significant factor is going to cause such a dramatic and sudden change in the markets momentum ???

And PLEASE dont say ....Elliott Wave Theory...PLEASE !!


.
  • #16,794
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:23pm Jul 2, 2007 1:23pm
My weekly chart is showing that this may well go to 2.0270 before any sort of downturn although I may be wrong.
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #16,795
  • Edited 3:46pm Jul 2, 2007 1:28pm | Edited 3:46pm
At 2.0170 Cable looks-runing out of gas!! waiting the BOE to decide the interest rate.. In my believe, from now until that date "thursday" Cable will be moving in the range between 2.01 & 2.02
Good luck to every one

===================================
  • #16,796
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:32pm Jul 2, 2007 1:32pm
That chart is from Daily FX which i'm convinced is a little early with their analysis at times. One day its' the end of wave 5, the next day it's "whoops we changed our minds" and a continuation of the uptrend.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #16,797
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:43pm Jul 2, 2007 1:43pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Yes the chart is from DailyFX, i'm still looking around for good info, this site has a lot to offer, but being new to trading i would like to have a few sources plus when I learn, my own charts.

At least by posting it i get to see if it's any good.
  • #16,798
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:44pm Jul 2, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting goonergonebad
I saw your earlier weekly chart in today's posts and I concur that the general trend is technically up. However, if you put the technical analysis to one side for a moment and consider a subjective alternative to your objective graphical position then I propose that the cable market is severely overbought and inflated to the point of pin pricking deflation.
Primarily, the interest hike is priced in by most of the major stakeholders, a large proportion of which will even have priced in a 0.5% hike. So, a hike if it happens will probably not register (medium term) more than 100 pips for 0.25 and 200 pips for 0.5. That said (earlier post), I am not convinced that a hike will even happen this month. Add to this the definite potential for better than projected US fundamentals results this week and we should see a dramatic reversal of fortunes for cable sooner rather than later.
I would love to be able to show you a supporting graphic and hard facts to underpin my theory, but I can only offer my subjective views.

It is compelling to hear the technically sound thoughts and reasoning of trend gurus such as WTB and others here on the forum but blind faith is a difficult skill to acquire when your logic is screaming at you that this can't be right there has got to be some other reason for this. etc.

Any way. I await the next IB (could be this hour).
My opinion on those two points:

1) Who is to determine whether a market is overbought or oversold? certainly not me, and certainly not an stochastic indicator. I dont buy the whole overbought/oversold concept to be honest. Have a look at carry trading throughout the year - people have been "fearing" the so-called unwinding for ages already, yet JPY-crosses just keep going up. How many number of stoplosses would have been triggered already trying to pick the beginning of the unwinding? dozens!

2) Fundamentals: the problem with fundamentals is that you never know when you might see them reversing the current trend. Sure, we might beginning to see better-than-expected data coming from US, and sure that might turn the current up-trend around, but the question is WHEN? cable might easily run up another few hundred pips before the whole market sentiment shifts from dollar-bearish to dollar-bullish.

So my point is: trying to predict the next market move doesnt work because you might easily wipe your entire account in the process of trying to pick the trend's top. That's why I trade a SMA-based system, because I have the market inertia as of TODAY on my side, regardless of what might happen tomorrow or God-knows-when. Also, that's why I am a swing trader: I will probably lose money on the last swing (when the trend reverses), but at least I have been making money off all the previous consecutive swings up before that doomsday actually takes place.
  • #16,799
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:55pm Jul 2, 2007 1:55pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Swing trading, following trends, seem to be the way to go in this market. could anyone share a tip on a good charting package to use, novice trader type.

your help would be appreciated.
  • #16,800
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:21pm Jul 2, 2007 2:21pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
WTB
could you please help me understand how to know the direction to trade, i normally lose some pips at the top and bottom of a run. a good example would be the current cable position, how far would it need to drop to indicate a change of direction?
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