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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #820,841
  • Apr 10, 2024 5:31am Apr 10, 2024 5:31am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} MR PRO CHART READER, Asian session now over and GU not at price you said it would be, I'm massively underwater because of your recommendation, please advise ....

Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #820,842
  • Apr 10, 2024 5:34am Apr 10, 2024 5:34am
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} The only certain thing is that if oil prices don't come down, CPI will continue to rise. The 20% hike in oil prices since last CPI are yet to be fed into the equation and that's a huge factor for inflation. The Fed will be nervous. {image}
true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak.
anyway, a lot!
suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi

then later is oil inventories
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #820,843
  • Apr 10, 2024 5:39am Apr 10, 2024 5:39am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak. anyway, a lot! suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi then later is oil inventories
ok sorry. Rose approx 20% true
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #820,844
  • Apr 10, 2024 5:40am Apr 10, 2024 5:40am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak. anyway, a lot! suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi then later is oil inventories
So looking forward to the Powell "spin" double speak on this one
  • #820,845
  • Apr 10, 2024 5:45am Apr 10, 2024 5:45am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak. anyway, a lot! suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi then later is oil inventories
I don't find these statistics dependable. Too many holes.
Biden was talking about the 15 million net jobs he created yet unemployment remains the same and the population only grows by a couple of million. All data that simply doesn't add up.
CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense.
The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
  • #820,846
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:13am Apr 10, 2024 6:13am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I don't find these statistics dependable. Too many holes. CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense. The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
Inserted Video
  • #820,847
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:36am Apr 10, 2024 6:36am
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHjieD6CTYs
best chocolate advert ever!
Insane in the Brain..
  • #820,848
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:38am Apr 10, 2024 6:38am
Quoting Moty
{image} {image}
my thinking is similar. I will add an SL on my long at 12650. That way if data is poor I will short this to lower than last weeks low
Insane in the Brain..
  • #820,849
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:44am Apr 10, 2024 6:44am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #820,850
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:44am Apr 10, 2024 6:44am
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHjieD6CTYs

'In The Air Tonight' always reminds me of a big drinking session I had with some mates lol
Paul back in the day before he moved into a unit with his GF was renting this caravan of these owners parked just behind the rear gates on the driveway .
It was work breakup and we ended up back at his caravan, Paul, Mick and myself for more drinking and crazy shit lol.
Paul was a very good electric guitarist with his own sound and I went and crashed shit faced in the house as owners had gone on holidays.
Anyway next morning he's playing In The Air Tonight overlaying it with some guitar work he'd came up with for the song.....those were happy days
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #820,851
  • Apr 10, 2024 6:45am Apr 10, 2024 6:45am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I don't find these statistics dependable. Too many holes. Biden was talking about the 15 million net jobs he created yet unemployment remains the same and the population only grows by a couple of million. All data that simply doesn't add up. CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense. The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
I mean, this is quite a good comparative chart I found on the web showing the path of WTI and US CPI

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: temp.png Size: 15 KB


As long as OIL price will keep rising, will trail up inflation forcing Govs and Central Banks to keep interest rates high.
For what I see, the importance in today's CPI is to see if there is a strong correction (be it up or down) or if, despite the recent rise in OIL prices, still inflation remains in line with last months.

Later is OIL inventories which lately market did not follow a lot. See chart below showing OIL inventories with the color of the outcome and see what price did...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: temp3.png Size: 14 KB


but another red number (3rd in a row) showing a continuos decrease in demand could send price back from actual rate. Maybe not a 20% and maybe not today!!! But a decreasing demand, will once or the other force supply to slow down price to meet more buyers lower. Of course, there are many other implications about the OIL price, not just S&D, this is just a quick observation of what's around the fundamental part of the market.

So, to sum up these very few things, I have the idea that if today we won't see important changes in CPI and finally a move down in OIL, Fed can start cutting rates as planned or even sooner
But, as long as CPI is not changing and OIL will keep rising, we won't see any rate cut.

Strong uptrend in OIL will start to show weakness if gets below the yellow rectangle area which atm look really like a very tasty buy area.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #820,852
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:01am Apr 10, 2024 7:01am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} my thinking is similar. I will add an SL on my long at 12650. That way if data is poor I will short this to lower than last weeks low
what is poor number and what is good number in line with consensus ?
Intraday only.
  • #820,853
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:02am Apr 10, 2024 7:02am
short story of the day and a word to the wise
invisible users
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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invisible dislikes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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no worries: I will disappear soon again as I always did in the past and come back in some months to find new invisibles, new users, new likers, new dislikers.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #820,854
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:02am Apr 10, 2024 7:02am
Hello Guys,
not bad but CPI can be tricky,
and honestly i care about CORE CPI more,
i learned a long time ago few things,
anyways i am not trading pound but if i were to BUY POUND i will wait for a good drop.
but we are in tricky situation with POUND and US
we have Uk economy in also not good condition and US is already Sticky.
so i am avoiding,
but YEN i like still no signs of major up move in past 2 weeks,
i think its time to SELL on CPI spike,
USDJPY even GBPJPY AND EURJPY w
will be good just a thought.
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #820,855
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:10am Apr 10, 2024 7:10am
Quoting _BBKing_
short story of the day and a word to the wise invisible users {image} invisible dislikes {image} no worries: I will disappear soon again as I always did in the past and come back in some months to find new invisibles, new users, new likers, new dislikers.



Inserted Video
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #820,856
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:11am Apr 10, 2024 7:11am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} I mean, this is quite a good comparative chart I found on the web showing the path of WTI and US CPI {image} As long as OIL price will keep rising, will trail up inflation forcing Govs and Central Banks to keep interest rates high. For what I see, the importance in today's CPI is to see if there is a strong correction (be it up or down) or if, despite the recent rise in OIL prices, still inflation remains in line with last months. Later is OIL inventories which lately market did not follow a lot. See chart below showing OIL inventories with...
Interesting chart. Oil is supposedly only 5% of CPI yet it appears strongly correlated to the overall index. Suggests to me that the roll of oil is 'not understood' by the people generating the statistics...
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-...y-category.htm
  • #820,857
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:12am Apr 10, 2024 7:12am
Quoting navk
{quote} what is poor number and what is good number in line with consensus ?
I want a poor number so we pump to 2770/2800 area



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #820,858
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:15am Apr 10, 2024 7:15am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} I want a poor number so we pump to 2770/2800 area {image}
Anything less then 3.4 % is poor number ?
Intraday only.
  • #820,859
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:16am Apr 10, 2024 7:16am
Quoting navk
{quote} Anything less then 3.4 % is poor number ?

Yes that's how the market will perceive it, guess all the algos are programmed that way

PA at the moment for dollar pairs suggests that pro traders are thinking same.....could be wrong
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #820,860
  • Apr 10, 2024 7:16am Apr 10, 2024 7:16am
Quoting Whatevs
CPI should be very big news today and I expect nothing less... Fed heads will add fuel to the fire by commenting about possibility of no rate cuts this year if CPI comes out higher than 3.4%. It wouldn't make ANY SENSE if CPI doesn't come out hot today. I'm prepared for the break above 152 on CPI and will be ready to act on possible intervention.
Was thinking if cpi comes hot, uj might push to 152.xxx
Boj/MOF want to intervene at 152.xxx.
However, fundamental perspective, cpi hot - less rate cut, good for dollar.
Even tho boj threatened to respond with monetary policy i.e hike more by 10bps, while keeping bond buying operations the same, uj will reach ~153+ in no time. Because of Interest rate differentials
If BOJ want rate hike and terminate bond buying operation immediately, possiblility to see uj traded back to 144.
Jpy mover comes down to pace of BOJ QE.


However, CPI headline is expected to print hotter while core softer. There the catch, this may reduce the extent of yield curve shift.
Together with cpi, FOMC mins. Not usually market mover for currency but metals and equities,especially if J.Powell mentionned QT slowdown pace.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
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