Don’t blindly follow someone, follow market and try to hear what it is tell
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,261 Posts
Question of the day: is CPI following OIL prices or is it OIL prices following CPI?
DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: New Era, Hello Future | 1,213 Posts
4 8 12 16 20
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- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts
{quote} MR PRO CHART READER, Asian session now over and GU not at price you said it would be, I'm massively underwater because of your recommendation, please advise ....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,315 Posts
{quote} The only certain thing is that if oil prices don't come down, CPI will continue to rise. The 20% hike in oil prices since last CPI are yet to be fed into the equation and that's a huge factor for inflation. The Fed will be nervous.
anyway, a lot!
suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi
then later is oil inventories
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,315 Posts
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,261 Posts
{quote} true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak. anyway, a lot! suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi then later is oil inventories
DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,849 Posts
{quote} true. But oil rose approx 8/9% in last month and coming down from a temp peak. anyway, a lot! suggest we will probably see mixed data today on cpi and core cpi then later is oil inventories
Biden was talking about the 15 million net jobs he created yet unemployment remains the same and the population only grows by a couple of million. All data that simply doesn't add up.
CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense.
The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,261 Posts
{quote} I don't find these statistics dependable. Too many holes. CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense. The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
Inserted Video
DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts
'In The Air Tonight' always reminds me of a big drinking session I had with some mates lol
Paul back in the day before he moved into a unit with his GF was renting this caravan of these owners parked just behind the rear gates on the driveway .
It was work breakup and we ended up back at his caravan, Paul, Mick and myself for more drinking and crazy shit lol.
Paul was a very good electric guitarist with his own sound and I went and crashed shit faced in the house as owners had gone on holidays.
Anyway next morning he's playing In The Air Tonight overlaying it with some guitar work he'd came up with for the song.....those were happy days
Don't Leave Money on the Table
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,315 Posts
{quote} I don't find these statistics dependable. Too many holes. Biden was talking about the 15 million net jobs he created yet unemployment remains the same and the population only grows by a couple of million. All data that simply doesn't add up. CPI is the same when you look at the pieces and the supporting evidence it doesn't make sense. The numbers are there to make politicians look good.
As long as OIL price will keep rising, will trail up inflation forcing Govs and Central Banks to keep interest rates high.
For what I see, the importance in today's CPI is to see if there is a strong correction (be it up or down) or if, despite the recent rise in OIL prices, still inflation remains in line with last months.
Later is OIL inventories which lately market did not follow a lot. See chart below showing OIL inventories with the color of the outcome and see what price did...
but another red number (3rd in a row) showing a continuos decrease in demand could send price back from actual rate. Maybe not a 20% and maybe not today!!! But a decreasing demand, will once or the other force supply to slow down price to meet more buyers lower. Of course, there are many other implications about the OIL price, not just S&D, this is just a quick observation of what's around the fundamental part of the market.
So, to sum up these very few things, I have the idea that if today we won't see important changes in CPI and finally a move down in OIL, Fed can start cutting rates as planned or even sooner
But, as long as CPI is not changing and OIL will keep rising, we won't see any rate cut.
Strong uptrend in OIL will start to show weakness if gets below the yellow rectangle area
which atm look really like a very tasty buy area.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,315 Posts
short story of the day and a word to the wise
invisible users
invisible dislikes
no worries: I will disappear soon again as I always did in the past and come back in some months to find new invisibles, new users, new likers, new dislikers.
invisible users
invisible dislikes
no worries: I will disappear soon again as I always did in the past and come back in some months to find new invisibles, new users, new likers, new dislikers.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction