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  • #1,481
  • Apr 1, 2024 4:04am Apr 1, 2024 4:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDJPY Jan 2018 to Mar 2024 Risk Reward and Win Rate You only take one trade a day and with set-and-forget SL and TP do you have the patience to see the result ? RR 1 to 1.5 {image} RR 1 to 2{image} RR 1 to 5 {image} RR 1 to 7.5R {image}
Hi Emmanuel, these results looks fine. What are the entry and exit rules for this set and forget?
  • #1,482
  • Apr 1, 2024 5:48am Apr 1, 2024 5:48am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDJPY Jan 2018 to Mar 2024 Risk Reward and Win Rate You only take one trade a day and with set-and-forget SL and TP do you have the patience to see the result ? RR 1 to 1.5 {image} RR 1 to 2{image} RR 1 to 5 {image} RR 1 to 7.5R {image}
What strategy are you using for these backtests?
Because the strategy discussed here is manual and discretionary
  • #1,483
  • Apr 1, 2024 6:42am Apr 1, 2024 6:42am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} the show continues. the problem now is when will the jpy intervention be? let's see whether the liquidity at asia high will be swept or not. {image}
hit BE.
US session.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,484
  • Apr 1, 2024 7:07am Apr 1, 2024 7:07am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} hit BE. US session. {image}
Trading an Asian pair during the US session!

Don't tell me it's an APRIL FOOL thing.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,485
  • Apr 1, 2024 7:23am Apr 1, 2024 7:23am
Quoting fxpider
{quote} Trading an Asian pair during the US session! Don't tell me it's an APRIL FOOL thing.
i am trading other pairs too.
but this one i have to bring it to fruition what i started earlier in the day to hit asia high.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,486
  • Apr 1, 2024 7:48am Apr 1, 2024 7:48am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} hit BE. US session. {image}
reached a h4 support.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,487
  • Apr 1, 2024 8:44am Apr 1, 2024 8:44am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} reached a h4 support. {image}
aj. m5 entry set up.
would either partial TP and put balance to BE or full TP, especially so for large lot position size.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,488
  • Apr 1, 2024 9:10am Apr 1, 2024 9:10am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} aj. m5 entry set up. would either partial TP and put balance to BE or full TP, especially so for large lot position size. {image}
aj BE hit.
so it is appropriate to apply a scalping strategy on such a ranging day.
however also be aware that asia low has been taken and if bounce up from there, there is still a chance that the day TP may be reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 29 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,489
  • Apr 1, 2024 2:15pm Apr 1, 2024 2:15pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} hit BE. US session. {image}
what are the challenges with wide range bars?
  • #1,490
  • Apr 1, 2024 2:23pm Apr 1, 2024 2:23pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} those with day jobs should be trading once a day and avoid intraday trading in LTF. I did back testing with EURGBP Daily chart for the period from Jan 2018 to Mar 2024, it performed well from 2018 to 2020, but not so good since 2021 ... better to focus on the USD pairs on Daily chart and trade once a day at London Open and Risk:Reward 1:5 and avoid the Eur and Gbp Cross pairs EG Daily 01/2018 to 03/2024 {image} ...
Thank you for your insight. In your opinion, what could be the reason for this performance drop for the past few years?
  • #1,491
  • Apr 1, 2024 9:52pm Apr 1, 2024 9:52pm
Quoting Hanz99
{quote} what are the challenges with wide range bars?
wrb is a momentum move showing strength.
often a result of major news although not always the case.
it is equivalent to ICT fair value gap.
when fvg got invalidated opposite move can occur.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 13 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,492
  • Apr 2, 2024 1:22am Apr 2, 2024 1:22am
Quoting emmanuel7788
BTC Mar31 H4 - consolidation range gets smaller - be prepared for the breakout when big boys are cashing in {image} ...

BTC Apr02

- to my surprise it move when I was not looking yesterday

- it fell to a Weekly SnR

- be patient for the next setup ... I don't think the big boys are done yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr02 Weekly gap SnR 2-4-2024 2-08-17 pm.png Size: 24 KB





...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,493
  • Apr 2, 2024 1:25am Apr 2, 2024 1:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} BTC Apr02 - to my surprise it move when I was not looking yesterday - it fell to a Weekly SnR - be patient for the next setup ... I don't think the big boys are done yet. {image} ...

and for those who believe in big candle WRB with hidden gems and what modern day traders would name them as fair value gap FVG ...

an ancient trading tool with a modern day twist name to sell trading courses ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr04 H4 WRB analysis 2-4-2024 2-21-19 pm.png Size: 13 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,494
  • Apr 2, 2024 1:37am Apr 2, 2024 1:37am
Quoting Hanz99
{quote} what are the challenges with wide range bars?
to learn some of the challenges with wide range bars you will need to take a trip back to May 2014 link below:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...62#post7445362

download the tutorial pdf in that post.

like all things in trading forex, nothing works is 100%.

but here we are day trading, we get in and out within the same market session therefore those WRB in lower timeframes can mean a lot different things.


...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,495
  • Apr 2, 2024 1:42am Apr 2, 2024 1:42am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} and for those who believe in big candle WRB with hidden gems and what modern day traders would name them as fair value gap FVG ... an ancient trading tool with a modern day twist name to sell trading courses ... {image}

BTC Apr02 H1

- watch how far price will retrace back into that H1 big candle

- big boys are watching you and your move

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr02 H1 WRB retracekement 2-4-2024 2-38-49 pm.png Size: 21 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,496
  • Apr 2, 2024 1:47am Apr 2, 2024 1:47am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} BTC Apr02 H1 - watch how far price will retrace back into that H1 big candle - big boys are watching you and your move {image} ...

BTC Apr02 H1 Frankfurt Open

- a possible trade and the market will decide if +5R

- if not, then -1R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr02 H1 buy w H4 2-4-2024 2-45-20 pm.png Size: 22 KB





...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,497
  • Apr 2, 2024 2:05am Apr 2, 2024 2:05am
Quoting Evaldas321
{quote} Thank you for your insight. In your opinion, what could be the reason for this performance drop for the past few years?

My technical observations are :-
- the Average Daily trading range has dropped quite significantly to below 50pips
- the intraday volatility has taken out most small SL of 10pips and TP 50pips has very few hits
- very few consecutive trending days

of course there are fundamental reasons,
some may say the Ukraine war being one of the reasons
post-Brexit impact
interest rate

etc.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,498
  • Apr 2, 2024 2:13am Apr 2, 2024 2:13am
Quoting Merka
{quote} What strategy are you using for these backtests? Because the strategy discussed here is manual and discretionary

it is a Money Management Strategy using the same setup candle and different Risk-Reward.
The Risk is always the same but different Reward.
The higher the Reward the lower the Win Rate.

You can trade manually and have your own rules-based discretionary trading, you can for example eliminate some setups with your own trading experience, and also have your own re-entry on the same day in cases when the first trade got stopped out at -1R.
You can also have the option to roll-over the trade to the next day when you have profit locked say at +3R and fight the following day for +5R, +9R and +12R ... those trade with +9R and +12R are big winners.

You need to frequently check 'losing streaks' your consecutive losing trades -1R and the prevailing market conditions ... these losing streaks can wipe out the big winners.

Read the OP's post. He had shown many +7.5R trades That's his winning edge.

I focus on +5R trades. Anything more is bonus.

There are many different scenarios when we are trading live market, ... therefore we are here to post charts and share our thoughts and how to get in and get out of the market.



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #1,499
  • Apr 2, 2024 7:10am Apr 2, 2024 7:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} it is a Money Management Strategy using the same setup candle and different Risk-Reward. The Risk is always the same but different Reward. The higher the Reward the lower the Win Rate. You can trade manually and have your own rules-based discretionary trading, you can for example eliminate some setups with your own trading experience, and also have your own re-entry on the same day in cases when the first trade got stopped out at -1R. You can also have the option to roll-over the trade to the next day when you have profit locked say at +3R...
Understood
Thanks
  • #1,500
  • Apr 3, 2024 7:36am Apr 3, 2024 7:36am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} wrb is a momentum move showing strength. often a result of major news although not always the case. it is equivalent to ICT fair value gap. when fvg got invalidated opposite move can occur. {image}
Quoting Inthebox
AJ. my thought process before trade entry. always start your analysis from w1, what it tells you. a lot of intra day traders ignore the weekly or the monthly. the weekly aligns with the monthly up trend. this week may be reaching to last week high. move down one time frame at a time. the daily range showed a bounce from below 50 fib to above. the h4 shows potential long set up. now waiting for frankfurt and london open with my entry time frame for long set up. if none then no trade. keeping in mind this week target is last week high, as intra day...
ta-da. the target made at the beginning of the week has been hit.
if there is no jpy intervention, the next target will be the week high.
the low of the week has been set.
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Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 28 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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