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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #16,541
  • Jun 29, 2007 1:30pm Jun 29, 2007 1:30pm
The cyan lines are, of course, already confirmed. The green lines are predictions.

Where you see the white boxes, those are my guesses of the next ABSOLUTE tops and bottoms.

The tricky part is to find the angles of the next "Z" pattern.

1 hour charts..so...don't day trade based on it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU chart.jpg Size: 68 KB
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #16,542
  • Jun 29, 2007 1:44pm Jun 29, 2007 1:44pm
On Monday we are having first monthly candle to open above 2.0000 since June 1981.
  • #16,543
  • Jun 29, 2007 2:32pm Jun 29, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting cesarnc
1 tick at 0080 and I'm calling it a week, C'MON!


Last soldier out of the battlefield
  • #16,544
  • Jun 29, 2007 2:33pm Jun 29, 2007 2:33pm
add to short @ 2.0076.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #16,545
  • Jun 29, 2007 2:53pm Jun 29, 2007 2:53pm
Every time CAble had breached weekly channels like it did this week, we saw a - check THIS - 500 (F-I-V-E H-U-N-D-R-E-D) pips breakout.

For the long-term, this baby has now a risk 9900 for a reward 2.0500, or 180:430 pips for the current level. For the short term, risk is 2.0013 for a reward 2.0131 (or 60:70).

Now, in the name of Jesus, Mary and Joseph, where the heck do you see a BEARISH SIGNAL in Cable, free444?????

You can drive one crazy here, unless you - finally - disclose your view, other than pure gambling, hopefully.
Attached Image
  • #16,546
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm
That chart is perfect !!! Same chart I have been looking at for ages !!! Almost like watching reruns of Leave it to Beaver !!!
  • #16,547
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm
i stoped add shorts (only 3)..... I will see many signals or hedge.

Techs nervous me..
  • #16,548
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm Jun 29, 2007 3:12pm
i thought forex was gambling? silly me
  • #16,549
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:23pm Jun 29, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting free4440273
i thought forex was gambling? silly me
Well, at least you keep your chin up, going sarcastic while the ship floods. I can respect that.
  • #16,550
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:26pm Jun 29, 2007 3:26pm
I have closed my longs. Most probably I will open shorts on Sunday.
  • #16,551
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:33pm Jun 29, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting cesarnc
Well, at least you keep your chin up, going sarcastic while the ship floods. I can respect that.
Cesar, do you really think BoE hike the rate this month (july)?...

because 25 bps hike is on the price now and cut 25bps (us, this year) too
  • #16,552
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:42pm Jun 29, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting cesarnc
Well, at least you keep your chin up, going sarcastic while the ship floods. I can respect that.
wasn't being sarcastic sir. you took it the wrong way as always.
  • #16,553
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:44pm Jun 29, 2007 3:44pm
Sincerelly i don't believe wich BoE hike the rate this month.

And we see a lot of recent good indicator for US economy... just housing problem persist, inflation still high levels and housing shows signs of recovering.

So... how better is the UK economy (expectatives) than US economy actually?.

Techs shows psicological markets movement, but fundamentals define trends (and his changes)
  • #16,554
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:46pm Jun 29, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting pablorpl
Cesar, do you really think BoE hike the rate this month (july)?...

because 25 bps hike is on the price now and cut 25bps (us) too
BOE: no, I don't think. They made it clear they are in "wait-and-see" moment. CPIs were 3.1% followed by a hike, then 2.8% then 2.5%.

However, early this year the market that was looking at 5.50% as toppish for 2007, started looking at 5.75% (another hike) and there were banks factoring īn 6.0% as toppish for 2007.

Therefore, as long as BOE keeps rate unchanged, the market goes on pricing in at least another hike.

If BOE says it's waiting to see what is gonna happen, it won't be me to tell what BOE is going to do

FED: Last FOMC made it clear: FED is sitting on its hands until further clue. The drop in the 10yr today (from 5.11% to 5.03%) as well as the tumble in the dollar across the board denoted that market relaxed about a rate hike in the US for sometime. I saw analysts saying no hike for 2007. Wait and see here, too.

So, the market went from cut to hike and now sits on unchanged.

In this sense, I see technicals confirming fundamentals.

Technicals aligned with fundamentals and break of a weekly channel: there are traders that would kill for a set up like this one.

Or like bravado likes to say: "why make it so complicated? This thing is going up!"
  • #16,555
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:47pm Jun 29, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting free4440273
wasn't being sarcastic sir. you took it the wrong way as always.


Whatever you say free. whatever you say.
  • #16,556
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:52pm Jun 29, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting cesarnc


Whatever you say free. whatever you say.
or whatever the technicals say sir
  • #16,557
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:54pm Jun 29, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting cesarnc
BOE: no, I don't think. They made it clear they are in "wait-and-see" moment. CPIs were 3.1% followed by a hike, then 2.8% then 2.5%.

However, early this year the market that was looking at 5.50% as toppish for 2007, started looking at 5.75% (another hike) and there were banks factoring īn 6.0% as toppish for 2007.

Therefore, as long as BOE keeps rate unchanged, the market goes on pricing in at least another hike.

If BOE says it's waiting to see what is gonna happen, it won't be me to tell what BOE is going to do

FED: Last FOMC made it clear: FED is sitting on its hands until further clue. The drop in the 10yr today (from 5.11% to 5.03%) as well as the tumble in the dollar across the board denoted that market relaxed about a rate hike in the US for sometime. I saw analysts saying no hike for 2007. Wait and see here, too.

So, the market went from cut to hike and now sits on unchanged.

In this sense, I see technicals confirming fundamentals.

Technicals aligned with fundamentals and break of a weekly channel: there are traders that would kill for a set up like this one.

Or like bravado likes to say: "why make it so complicated? This thing is going up!"
Thank's for your opinion
  • #16,558
  • Jun 29, 2007 4:00pm Jun 29, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting pablorpl
Thank's for your opinion
BTW, my scenario is denied on break of 9987 (23% fib 9956-0086) in the immediate-term and 9871 (50%) in the short term

Cable is ticking 0086 right now. This is the close of the daily candle of April 18th, the day we saw 0131.
  • #16,559
  • Jun 29, 2007 5:51pm Jun 29, 2007 5:51pm
Keys for next week are 1.9992 and 2.0164
If 1.9992 is broken, it will be the key for going short, and if 2.0164 is broken, it will be the key for going long

If 1.9992 is broken so cable won't go up till the end of the week, and if 2.0164 is broken cable won't go down this week

Keys for Monday are 2.0037 and 2.0119
If 2.0037 is broken, it will be the key for going short, and if 2.0119 is broken, it will be the key for going long

As I mentioned that 2.0063 was the key for the cable to go up if broken, and it was broken and it opened the door for the cable to go up

I closed the 2 remaining short trades, one @ BE and the second -9 pips
This was a horrible week for me since I changed my strategy completely, which made some people here talked to me as if I'm a newbie, well all of us and I repeat it again ALL OF US can win and lose, and I have the courage to post my loss here as I post my winning trades, which many here don't post except their winning trades only and they never mention their loss, as if they never lose, I made very good profit in forex, and at the same time I lost money as well, this is life and no one can win all the time, I'm trading since years and I'm still learning till now, and I'll keep on learning, and will try to share anything usefull here with others rather than acting as if I know everything and that I never lose and laugh at people who lose, this is not acceptable at all, and I won't do such childish things since I respect all people here.

I'll stick back to my old strategy, and I'll do my best to help people here with anything usefull in a respected way without showing off like some other do,
I also want to thank cesarnc and bravado for all the indirect help they gave to me here, and to all the traders who help others without showing off
  • #16,560
  • Jun 29, 2007 6:59pm Jun 29, 2007 6:59pm
Top and bottom pickers become cotton pickers. I guess that's what separates the men from the boys.
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