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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #818,261
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:07pm Mar 21, 2024 7:07pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Just my two cents, i thought it could help since weekly green bars don't help much
What won't help is the following PCE reading over time, yes it's in focus right now...
I suggest forgetting about taking outright fundamental trades, knowing candles as the bare minimum, since there so simple.
it won't always be this ugly.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #818,262
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:10pm Mar 21, 2024 7:10pm
if the weekly closes bearish that's just the start, it's not too late
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #818,263
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:14pm Mar 21, 2024 7:14pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} What won't help is the following PCE reading over time, yes it's in focus right now... I suggest forgetting about taking outright fundamental trades, knowing candles as the bare minimum, since there so simple. it won't always be this ugly.
You have a point, PCE won't be in focus for too long. It's always about the narrative and the story. Tomorrow it can be about GDP, Unemployment or something else.

The thing is keeping up to date with the narrative. Changing the focus from one fundamental reading to the other as the market's interests changes.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #818,264
  • Edited Mar 22, 2024 2:21am Mar 21, 2024 7:16pm | Edited Mar 22, 2024 2:21am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} does it? I couldn’t find on the App Store
Doesn't look like an app, but works like one.
I accidentally clicked something and changed to mobile version

On your browser top right click on Open FF tab.
  • #818,265
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:19pm Mar 21, 2024 7:19pm
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} You need a little more than a "feeling". You need evidence, otherwise it's just a crap shoot. And here's a little piece of honey for Nordling's yummy fundies brain as well, the "news" ALWAYS shows up in the TA FIRST (well almost always ) I hope TraderFX that you read my article. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14802350 I don't need to smack you this time btw, market does an outstanding job of doing that all by itself. Hugs.
Yes mam, you already slap.me yesterday haha..but
When my analysis and my feelings are on same direction.. it will make more confidence to open position,
But but im always follow my tech analysis first than feelings..because i have more than 4 rules before open trades.
dont teach me how to buy. im sellers!!
  • #818,266
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:20pm Mar 21, 2024 7:20pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Doesn't look like an app, but works like one. I accidentally clicked something and changed t an mobile version While use FF on your browser top right click on Open FF tap. {image}
Its just fullscreen shortcut..and not comfortable for me..
dont teach me how to buy. im sellers!!
  • #818,267
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:41pm Mar 21, 2024 7:41pm
on a daily tf, it is bearish engulfing candle.
The high to low is 152 pips.
In line with bearish engulfing candle, one should search for bearish signal after 50 % retrace.
That is 1.2725.
It means no more down on this Friday.
Assuming 70 pips range ADR
Intraday only.
  • #818,268
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:43pm Mar 21, 2024 7:43pm
In my opinion 1.2700 is first.
Later UK news will decide
Intraday only.
  • #818,269
  • Mar 21, 2024 7:46pm Mar 21, 2024 7:46pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Ma'am if you showed me how to predict the outcome of the news before they are released i would be your personal chef in the kitchen not asking for any salary nor holidays I am serious though, how do you even do that? i need it
I might have other duties for you too

It's just experience, finding TA that works for you. For me, it's candles, moving averages, stoch, fibs, S&R. For others, it's pivots, EW's, trend lines and whatever else takes their fancy. Some like to scalp or intraday (which I do on odd occasions).

But my preference is to position trade (hold 30 days or longer) and looking for the "stinky cheese" trade, e.g. EURCHF monthly chart - inverted bull hammer and stoch bottomed out. I went long at the base of the next monthly candle following the inverted bull hammer, then TP before it hit the 200 ema and 200 sma on daily chart. Stayed out for a week while it broke through, consolidated, then got back on board for the ride north. And I knew it was going north with force because of the all the MA's crossing over and upwards below, powerful. Just wasn't expecting it to be quite so powerful, but grateful to the SNB for their kind assistance

Give me the right shoulder of a major move that I can wave ride (yeah, surf junkie, love the rush) anytime. Easy money, no drama, just let it run.
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  • #818,270
  • Mar 21, 2024 8:09pm Mar 21, 2024 8:09pm
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} I might have other duties for you too It's just experience, finding TA that works for you. For me, it's candles, moving averages, stoch, fibs, S&R. For others, it's pivots, EW's, trend lines and whatever else takes their fancy. Some like to scalp or intraday (which I do on odd occasions). But my preference is to position trade (hold 30 days or longer) and looking for the "stinky cheese" trade, e.g. EURCHF monthly chart - inverted bull hammer and stoch bottomed out. I went long at the base of the next monthly...
Ma'am you are making me blush

I see you are holding positions over long periods of time. I do the same but these CB meetings can be annoying. Like what if SNB turned out hawkish instead of accelareting your trades? Is there a way to tell this beforehand? Or let me word it in another way, were you sure that SNB was going to be dovish and cut rates? So you saw the rate cut on the TA?

From my experience sometimes these CB meetings play into my hand, accelareting my trades, sometimes eating up my profits...
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #818,271
  • Mar 21, 2024 8:30pm Mar 21, 2024 8:30pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Ma'am you are making me blush I see you are holding positions over long periods of time. I do the same but these CB meetings can be annoying. Like what if SNB turned out hawkish instead of accelareting your trades? Is there a way to tell this beforehand? Or let me word it in another way, were you sure that SNB was going to be dovish and cut rates? So you saw the rate cut on the TA? From my experience sometimes these CB meetings play into my hand, accelareting my trades, sometimes eating up...
I just figured first, that it was a no brainer winner, because whether EUR goes on a binge or it's USD binging, this cross benefits. Second, I didn't think it would make one iota of difference what the SNB did, left rates on hold (which is in fact what I was expecting) hiked or cut, it was still a winner. The +ve swap rate is icing on the cake. Market is looking for yield. And which of course if why UJ just keeps pumping north. The key with position trades is to get on board early, cover your rear end by bringing your TP stops up and then LEAVE IT ALONE.

And it was a "bargain basement" buy. I was around when the Euro was pegged to the Swissy, and then unpegged (and OMG what a huge drama that was, some brokers went to the wall over that). So the Swissy has long held my interest.

Typically I'm looking for an 80% or better RR ratio. Just learn the hard way to stay out until you see something that is worth having a piece of. Stack the odds in your favour, because this market will come after your stops otherwise. I don't trade "the news" itself like FOMC etc but I do position several days or a week or so ahead, bring TP stops up to cover and leave it be. Worst case scenario, make a little money. Best case scenario, make a shit load of money. Just capital protection and gotta say it's saved my arse on more occasions than I can count.
  • #818,272
  • Mar 21, 2024 8:49pm Mar 21, 2024 8:49pm
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} I just figured first, that it was a no brainer winner, because whether EUR goes on a binge or it's USD binging, this cross benefits. Second, I didn't think it would make one iota of difference what the SNB did, left rates on hold (which is in fact what I was expecting) hiked or cut, it was still a winner. The +ve swap rate is icing on the cake. Market is looking for yield. And which of course if why UJ just keeps pumping north. The key with position trades is to get on board early, cover your rear end by bringing your TP stops up and then...
I mean you are right, just put a positive sl and let it run, enjoy the waves. However i want to pinpoint every decent move. Like yesterday, i could have get out from GU shorts, close & take my 100 pips, go short again before BOE and take 150 pips.

Instead i just got 150 pips bc i was stubborn with my shorts. But it could have gone wrong if BOE was hawkish.

Wait, I have an idea If i put positive sl before FOMC, not too tight, so my positions can survive sudden wicks. Let's say a sl on +50 pips so i leave a decent room for it to breathe. Then price triggers my sl, so i have +50 pips banked. And then i open a short position again before BOE, again a 50 pip sl.

In the worse case scenario i will have 0 in my hands. +50 in -50 out.
In a better case, i will have +50 with FOMC and +150 with a dovish BOE.
In the best case, +100 with FOMC and +150 with BOE.

What do you think? Does it make sense?
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #818,273
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:15pm Mar 21, 2024 9:15pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} I mean you are right, just put a positive sl and let it run, enjoy the waves. However i want to pinpoint every decent move. Like yesterday, i could have get out from GU shorts, close & take my 100 pips, go short again before BOE and take 150 pips. Instead i just got 150 pips bc i was stubborn with my shorts. But it could have gone wrong if BOE was hawkish. Wait, I have an idea If i put positive sl before FOMC, not too tight, so my positions can survive sudden wicks. Let's say a sl on +50 pips so i leave a decent room...
Why bother? I think you nailed it "however I want to pinpoint every decent move". That's the problem. Learn to be content with the piece you get. You don't need to "have it all". We all do the woulda coulda shoulda thing. But what you are looking for is consistent profits. You weren't stubborn, you were sensible.

I just don't trade the major news on release, full stop. It can whipsaw hysterically in both directions. I'd rather wait until the dust settles, the candles or direction becomes clear and then hop on board the train to wherever. But I do think that your fundies take on market is important for major news releases, as is any research you do beforehand, e.g. USD liquidity squeeze coming up = USD strength
  • #818,274
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:20pm Mar 21, 2024 9:20pm
Quoting NextElliott
{quote} Hey Zebi , Regarding GOLD: As I said regarding 19th- 20th March 2024: " Around 19th- 20th March 2024 Bulls may get chance to turn into Bears" https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/po...1#post14791941 {image}
GU Bears should hold their sell trade till 27th March with maximum target 1.23800.. By the way, My forecast can be 100% wrong.. Trade at your own risk
I'm not always right.. I'm not always wrong neither
  • #818,275
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:34pm Mar 21, 2024 9:34pm
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} You need a little more than a "feeling". You need evidence, otherwise it's just a crap shoot. And here's a little piece of honey for Nordling's yummy fundies brain as well, the "news" ALWAYS shows up in the TA FIRST (well almost always ) I hope TraderFX that you read my article. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14802350 I don't need to smack you this time btw, market does an outstanding job of doing that all by itself. Hugs.
Cringe.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #818,276
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:34pm Mar 21, 2024 9:34pm
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} Why bother? I think you nailed it "however I want to pinpoint every decent move". That's the problem. Learn to be content with the piece you get. You don't need to "have it all". We all do the woulda coulda shoulda thing. But what you are looking for is consistent profits. You weren't stubborn, you were sensible. I just don't trade the major news on release, full stop. It can whipsaw hysterically in both directions. I'd rather wait until the dust settles, the candles or direction becomes clear and then hop on board the train to wherever....
Thanks a lot I guess i just need to be less of a greedy bastard
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #818,277
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:35pm Mar 21, 2024 9:35pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Cringe.
Cringe is your whole profile bud, especially that morse code thread lmao
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #818,278
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:38pm Mar 21, 2024 9:38pm
Quoting trumps
I don't think yesterday's candle is even daring someone to short it. I think it's just saying, "don't do it knucklehead". Minor retrace perhaps, but nothing more. {image} {image}

the only reason im taking this moment to talk to you is because youve been the only one in the room to take an interest in the way i trade LOL

ive always said diagonal trendlines are worthless to use in realtime trading...they just good for demonstration purposes in books to fool newbies into a life of loserdom and ewave traders that show their charts after the fact like our resident dope

you said you learned that location location location of patterns is just as important as in real estate LOL...well now learn the lesson about trendlines LOL

so bear with me...you posted once about a hybrid trenline thingy which i think you were joking but on the chart in your quote is the most egregious example why diagonal trendlines are worthless...it gave you a breakout buy signal and cost you money...hopefully not much

if you go back to ata turkoglus thread in 2019 he spent more than a year trying to use just trendlines intraday... he used every permutation of trendlines and even did some original shit with them... i thot he was on to something the unique way he tried using them on small charts but alas i think he gave up .. i left a little after that and now when i came back he doesnt use them anymore and hes into harmonics and bats and circles and ellipses and all kinds of weird shit LOL...check out his thread in 2019 and the last couple years youll see that even he couldnt make trendlines work and he spent well over a year trying

so stay to horizontal lines which bonzey hates me for and we both know what a piss poor record he has in calls using diagonal trendlines ...dont be like him LOL
so anyways thats youre new assignment before i leave here in a few months like i said in the private message...look thru ata's charts and thread before,durin and after 2019 so you see for yourself they cant be used in realtime trading cause he gave his best in an attempt to make it work
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #818,279
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:41pm Mar 21, 2024 9:41pm
and trumps...download TV for desktop so you dont have to use barchart or FF charts

https://www.tradingview.com/desktop/
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #818,280
  • Mar 21, 2024 9:42pm Mar 21, 2024 9:42pm
UJ
SHorts setup
30mins
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Internal structure MSS with Inducement.

Risk side,
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Possibility to shoot up to 1.27% of previous swing and mitigated RSF from the 90s.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
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munlee