Cable Update (GBPUSD)

this is a piercing candle bonzey...the size of the reversal candle doesnt matter..wyckoff called it a spring ...google is fookin with your head

i didnt know a old man like you watches ICT or follows the new TA ...do you also use new math too? LOL

but since i have you here bonzey...care to commit to an answer...friday you were boolish...still are?

here you go bonzey since you like misrepresenting my charts and posts

heres what happened the next week after that post LOL

youre never gona get me bonzey since i update my trades and admit i was wrong or when i get stopped out LOL..not like you bonzey that never updated that short you took in october LOL

JFC get a life and touch grass. Why is this idiot ALWAYS here? Take your guesses. Imagine being this much of a no life loser

Probably a bubble boy with zero friends

Good vid Ferna. The black-out period, March 14 to end of April. Very interesting.

I'm inclined towards USD strength (which I know may seem counter-intuitive given bad US data, US debt load, but then again not necessarily given unlikelihood of rates cuts anytime this year) due to upcoming USD liquidity squeeze end of this month and into April. Which of course is not good news for cable or any other currency. The USDCHF monthly chart is an interesting observation. Stoch turning up and a lot of distance to go for north (until it's spent, then big dump, just my 2c).

And a little something for every trader in here that's ever lost money (me included). Trading is a catharsis, a rite of purification.

Cable a bit more to go down next week I think.
$ a bit more to go up towards 104 before resuming down.
Word on the street is the tightening cycle is at its peak.
Market pricing in this years outlook before it happens.

Hello Pat Chiko,
I trust that you are doing great.
Please I like to know whether the 0.65634 level in the attached chart is a valid SRF level.
Thank you sir.

All nicely explained, however I'm not so sure about BoJ hiking next week... they are a dissapointment, yet again. BoJ will probably hike in April... is it possible they'll hike in March? Of course...

Even on FF calendar it says BoJ will leave rates where they are at this meeting still.
Wage Talks went great in Japan... however, Ueda will have the last say and he wasn't exactly delivering optimistic news for JPY lately.

We'll see...

Weekly

S1 1.27
S2 1.264

H1 TF is looking to deliver one more sell it seems
H4 Support 1.2725 (which held on Friday)
D1 Next candle will open exactly above support

News were all over the place these last two weeks concerning Japan...

Now, market expected that if wage talks go well that BoJ will have a green light to start hiking rates as they would finally break out of deflationary mindset they've been dealing with for the last decade. Wage talks went better than expected...

Now, after wage talks were concluded let's say, then the news came out which resulted in a big drop in JPY against other currencies:

JAPAN'S GOVT AND THE BOJ TO KEEP JOINT STATEMENT INCLUDING MAINTAINING 2% PRICE TARGET

I think this means 2% is still not achieved according to Ueda and other BoJ officials.

I think we're looking at the April rate hike. BOJ Outlook Report is in April as well, so it makes sense for BoJ to wait for one more month before changing the policy.

Its crypto time baby

Now, this is interesting!!

Only on Forex Factory Calendar does it say that Forecast (Consensus) is at -0.10%, while on EVERY OTHER website it is stated that the Forecast (Consensus) is actually that BoJ will hike rates to 0%.

So, GEfx is probably right!

Look for yourself!:

Somehow, I don't think it's going to make a whole lot of difference to the bullish PA on UJ whether they hike from -ve to 0.0 or not. Yield (via swap rate) and demand for USD likely to rule the day. Much ado about nothing (?). If it revisits the 150.00+ mark again, it will be interesting to see if BOJ put the ceiling back on it.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying. What I'm looking to catch here is that swift short from these highs on JPY pairs due to BoJ removing YCC and hiking rates which should have a strong impact on JPY in the short-term. Long-term yeah, the difference in yields is telling and JPY will continue to suffer until Fed and other CBs start cutting rates (for all we know it'll probably be in Q2 of 2024.). So, the plan is to take that Short opportunity and probably get out once a decent Support has been reached on either Weekly or Monthly TF.

Hello Pipcenturion,
hope you are enjoying the weekends with family.

Thank you for posing such an intriguing question.
I find great pleasure in engaging with inquiries of this nature, as they afford me the opportunity to provide feedback on evaluation techniques and elucidate my strategic approach to identifying trade setups.

It's important to note that any information shared herein is purely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
In conducting technical analysis accompanied by a consideration of fundamental factors for this particular currency pair, it's evident from the H1 chart that the price is currently undergoing a phase of consolidation.


This consolidation phase represents a period of market indecision and typically precedes a significant directional movement.
Henceforth,
I've elected to delve into a comprehensive analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the current status of this currency pair.

This entails examining the price structure and formation from a HTF perspective, enabling us to make informed decisions.
Additionally, I will incorporate a concise analysis of the fundamental factors influencing this pair.

By adopting this multifaceted approach, we aim to achieve a thorough comprehension of the market dynamics, which is instrumental in crafting a robust trading strategy.

TECHNICAL

Weekly TF
Price sitting at SSR (significant SNR level).
Structure on bull side with EW count 2, price pull back not touching 78.6% fib.

Daily TF
Price break the Daily triangle and RT.
Formation HL/HH. Broke structure to the upside and currently on correction.

H4 TF
Price pull back to 61.8%fib @ SSR.
Price shift, then exhausted.
MM pullback the price to SSR zone for another round of accumulation, as price cannot go higher.
(Need more seller to fill up the order at discount)
Watch out for price may pull deeper to fill up the Daily FVG.


H1 TF
Same as the first chart, but zoom out to have better pespective.
Sitting at SSR and the your RSF is not applicable as during consolidation price break both high and low to filling up order (manipulation).
We are waititng for "C" (re-accumulation)and then price to break structure to continue the uptrend.

M30 TF
This is not analysis, just what specifica pattern I'm lookin for in case price completed its re-accumulation and manipulation phase.


FUNDAMENTAL


Chinese Housing Market Decline:
China's housing market is experiencing a downturn, with house prices dropping.
This is concerning because Australia heavily relies on exports to China, particularly iron ore used in construction.
When China's economy struggles, it impacts Australian exports and, consequently, the value of the Australian dollar.

Reduction in Chinese Lending:
China's lending activity has decreased, meaning there's less money available for investments and growth.
This could limit economic expansion, especially in sectors like real estate that rely on borrowing.
Again, this affects Australia due to its economic ties with China.

US Inflationary Pressures:
In the US, there's rising inflation, indicated by the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing increased factory-gate prices.
This suggests that prices for goods are going up, which could eventually lead to higher costs for consumers.
As a result, the US Federal Reserve might delay cutting interest rates, which is favorable for the US dollar but not for the Australian dollar.

Market Expectations and Interest Rates:
While there were expectations for a potential interest rate cut in the US, the likelihood of this happening soon has decreased.
Higher interest rates in the US attract more foreign investment, strengthening the US dollar but weakening the Australian dollar.

Overall, these factors contribute to the decline of the Australian dollar compared to the US dollar.

Personally, I skip this pair ATM, as it may takes time for price to fully develop and getting ready to trade again, and the fundamental may hold the price lower a bit longer, until CB makes major decision on Interest Rates.

It's just my personal view. Welcome if you got comment on the above

Warm regards,
PAT Chiko

COT Report
(corrected)
GBP has the largest amount of buys we have seen this Year 21,000 New Contracts added.
As inflation remains sticky in the UK and a Central Bank refusing to give a date for a rate Cuts.

1.31 ready to welcome us ?

Look... higher TFs point North... Once H1 starts the up-trend it should be it. I see one more Sell incoming and then one should Buy in my opinion.