Hello Guys,
today is NFP the Double Edge Sword.
and here is some previous results,
.
Results
There were 11 negative and 24 positive NFP surprises in the previous 35 releases, excluding data for March 2021 and March 2023. On average, the deviation was -0.84 on disappointing prints and 1.46 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $8.1 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold declined by $5.53 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a weaker-than-forecast print.
The correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above are not close enough to -1 to be considered significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the release, with the r standing at around -0.57. One hour and four hours after the release, r edges higher to -0.52 and -0.53, respectively.
Check the image below.
,
caution if i were you i will not be selling USD today,
or buying GBPUSD,
It does look appealing to hit 1.2900
but i am Big picture guy,
i am already in yen pairs worked out Quite well, even today
so not looking to risk,
sometimes its better to just Watch.
USD is over sold,
and weekend considerations
Profit taking.
its will tricky to trade for me at least.
Good luck.
.
" A Good Man apologize for his mistakes, a Wise Man corrects them"
today is NFP the Double Edge Sword.
and here is some previous results,
.
Results
There were 11 negative and 24 positive NFP surprises in the previous 35 releases, excluding data for March 2021 and March 2023. On average, the deviation was -0.84 on disappointing prints and 1.46 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $8.1 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold declined by $5.53 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a weaker-than-forecast print.
The correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above are not close enough to -1 to be considered significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the release, with the r standing at around -0.57. One hour and four hours after the release, r edges higher to -0.52 and -0.53, respectively.
Check the image below.
,
caution if i were you i will not be selling USD today,
or buying GBPUSD,
It does look appealing to hit 1.2900
but i am Big picture guy,
i am already in yen pairs worked out Quite well, even today
so not looking to risk,
sometimes its better to just Watch.
USD is over sold,
and weekend considerations
Profit taking.
its will tricky to trade for me at least.
Good luck.
.
" A Good Man apologize for his mistakes, a Wise Man corrects them"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Don't compare your Trades with Others
3
And my beach is gonna look like this all weekend
