Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action 109 replies

EurJpy Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action 46 replies

GbpJpy Statistical Probability With Price Action 22 replies

Statistical Validation on trading 24 replies

Attachments: Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action
Exit Attachments

Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

  • #341
  • Jun 23, 2007 3:14pm Jun 23, 2007 3:14pm
These are the two weeks since Jan 2006 that GbpUsd did not retrace to the weekly 23.6 fib level
Attached Images
  • #342
  • Jun 23, 2007 3:39pm Jun 23, 2007 3:39pm
Charts showing daily and weekly retracement probabilities for the GbpUsd. On the daily it retraced to the 61.8 fib because it came within the 7 pip tolerance of the fib level.
Attached Images
  • #343
  • Jun 24, 2007 7:19am Jun 24, 2007 7:19am
Hi goodthings,GBP/USD looks,"good,"this week. Pippo
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #344
  • Jun 26, 2007 1:00am Jun 26, 2007 1:00am
Updated week ending June 15 2007 unless otherwise noted
Quoting goodthings
Below is a Table Of Content Showing Daily & Weekly Ranges with other Statistics and Price Action



Post 81 shows 4hr range for each 4hr candle/bar
GbpUsd
EurJpy
GbpJpy
UsdCad

UsdJpy

The Below Pages and Posts Show the Weekly and Daily Ranges For The Below Currencies

Aud Usd Page 19 post 278-281
EurAud Page 19,20 and Posts 282-286
EurJpy Page 20 Posts 287-291
EurUsd Page 20 Posts 292-296
GbpJpy Page 20,21 Posts 297-301
GbpUsd Page 21 Posts 302-306
UsdCad Page 21 Posts 307-311
UsdChf Page 21,22 Posts 312-316
Usd Jpy Page 22 Posts 317-321

Price Action Around Floor Traders Supports, Resistance, and Pivot Points and the daily fibs
EurAud Posts 139-143 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Posts 147-150 (6/1/07)
EurJpy Posts 154-157 (6/1/07)
EurUsd Posts 162-165 (6/1/07)
UsdCad Posts 169-172 (6/1/07)
UsdChfPosts 177-180 (6/1/07)
GbpJpy Posts 184-187 (6/1/07)
UsdJpy Posts 192-195 (6/1/07)

DAYS OF THE WEEK (DAR)
EurUsd Post 214 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Post 215 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 220 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS WITH CHART

GbpUsd Page 19 Post 273


WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 6/17/07

WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS FOR THE YEAR WITH CHART

UsdJpy Page 23 Post 336
EurJpy Page 19 Post 275
UsdChf Page 23 Post 337 & 338

FIB RETRACEMENTS
GbpUsd Page 19 post 271
  • #345
  • Jun 27, 2007 2:55am Jun 27, 2007 2:55am
Have you found anything in regards to statistical analysis that helps you to identify trend?
Quoting xPiP
http://i17.tinypic.com/544dv2e.jpg

Zoom out view of the yearly fibs.
  • #346
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:48pm Jun 27, 2007 6:48pm
That is good to hear.
Quoting xPiP
Trend?

I just read somewhere that TREND doesn't exist. It is only a concept like time.

That may sound silly because of what you have learned but if you take time to ponder you may realize the validity of that statement. But if TREND really did exist, like gravity, then someone by now would have created an indicator to determine the trend and be well on their way to owning everything.

If you know the game of roulette, you know the odds don't change no matter how many times red comes up in a row.

One must trade in the moment. Price is either going up, going down or static.

http://i13.tinypic.com/6czxymv.jpg

http://i11.tinypic.com/67o7hi1.jpg

The beauty of statistic trading is that we put the odds in our favor.

Based on your analysis used for exit targets and my system for entry, Tom, I made 2 profitable USD/JPY long trades today - and a couple of profitable EUR/USD shorts earlier this week. Thank you.

It's a simple matter of applying statistics to the trades.
  • #347
  • Jun 28, 2007 5:33am Jun 28, 2007 5:33am
Hi goodthings, Sorry I don't have much to contribute to this work other than questions. I am wondering if you have compiled statistics with respect to Adverse Excursions vs completed retracements to .236, .382 etc.? Just for an example: once price has moved to, say, .236 beyond range (beyond the established high or low), what is the historical record that a retracement back to .236 or .382 has been completed? Trying to determine the Point of no Return, or point at which the odds may no longer be in our favor to stay in the trade. I realize that this may be no more than an academic question since the rate of completed retracements is so high. Pippo
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #348
  • Jun 28, 2007 12:26pm Jun 28, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Hi goodthings, Sorry I don't have much to contribute to this work other than questions. I am wondering if you have compiled statistics with respect to Adverse Excursions vs completed retracements to 236, .382 etc.? Just for an example: once price has moved to, say, .236 beyond range (beyond the established high or low), what is the historical record that a retracement back to .236 or .382 has been completed? Trying to determine the Point of no Return, or point at which the odds may no longer be in our favor to stay in the trade. I realize that this may be no more than an academic question since the rate of completed retracements is so high. Pippo
That would be good to look at. Another thing I would like to break out is same week and next week retracements. For Instance UsdCad has hit a weekly range and is at the bottom. I do not know weekly retracements on the usdcad but I have just went long with a target in between the 50 and 38 fib. Its weekly average range is 160 and has ranged 128 pips but it has little movement. Will see what happens. Long at 1.0623
  • #349
  • Jun 28, 2007 12:28pm Jun 28, 2007 12:28pm
Daily fib is only 23 so It on a daily basis should retrace more after the big move today.
  • #350
  • Jun 29, 2007 11:01am Jun 29, 2007 11:01am
Hello Good Things,I was wondering if you could do a statistical probability for this pair with the price of oil in mind;cad has second largest reserves-japan is 99% dependent on oil imports,thank you.
  • #351
  • Jun 30, 2007 1:06pm Jun 30, 2007 1:06pm
yes both eur/usd and gbpusd are fully extended for the weeks run. A look at the eurjpy and gbpjpy too. After fully retracing from the beginning weeks run on the short side.
  • #352
  • Jul 1, 2007 7:03pm Jul 1, 2007 7:03pm
Short GBP/USD at 2.0083. SL 2.0143. TP1 2.0056, .75 of position, TP2 2.0032, .25 of position.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #353
  • Jul 1, 2007 7:23pm Jul 1, 2007 7:23pm
Weekly retracement probabilities for the gbpusd
Attached Image
  • #354
  • Jul 2, 2007 10:07am Jul 2, 2007 10:07am
Stopped out at 2.0144.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #355
  • Jul 3, 2007 8:27pm Jul 3, 2007 8:27pm
From Fxcm

00:03 GBP/USD: Hemmed In By Option Gamma Sydney, July 4: Traders say that the
order books in the GBP/USD are thick with option related buyers around 2.0135
and option related sellers up at 2.0185 that should keep the GBP/USD hemmed in a
narrow range during the Asian session at least. The GBP/USD traded up to a new
26-year high at 2.0197 yesterday before easing back to 2.0135 when the USD
broadly strengthened. There is talk of an option barrier at 2.0200 that will be
well defended and stops just above that level. The GBP/USD trades 2.0160/65. --
[email protected]
  • #356
  • Jul 8, 2007 1:37am Jul 8, 2007 1:37am
I have a question on drawing the weekly fib for the week 2 July to 6 July. Do you draw the weekly fib from the high of the week 4 July to the low of the week 6 July (magenta fib) or do you draw the fib from the low on Monday 2 July to the high on 4 July (red fib)?

Makes a difference in what you call the weekly pullback. If drawn from 4 July to 6 July then I would consider the pullback to the aqua circle the weekly pullback. If drawn from 2 July to 4 July then the pullback happened on the 6 July and exceed 100%.
Attached Image
  • #357
  • Jul 8, 2007 4:44am Jul 8, 2007 4:44am
You would draw the weekly fib like the below post. It would include the weeks high and low. And you really only know that for sure until the week is up. I also draw it from the bottom up because for the week it closed with a blue candle, a higher close then open. Even though there was only an 21 pip difference between the open and close.
Attached Image
  • #358
  • Edited 7:33pm Jul 8, 2007 7:32pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting goodthings
You would draw the weekly fib like the below post. It would include the weeks high and low. And you really only know that for sure until the week is up. I also draw it from the bottom up because for the week it closed with a blue candle, a higher close then open. Even though there was only an 21 pip difference between the open and close.
Thanks for clearing that up. After the weekly low @ 2.0056 do you consider the blue candle that closes at 2.0140 a retrace for the week since it's come up above the 50% fib?
  • #359
  • Jul 9, 2007 1:10am Jul 9, 2007 1:10am
Yes. The weekly retrace can either happen the same week or the following it is all pending on the high and low being established. Some weeks have better set ups then others. One to look at now is the usdjpy. It is getting what I call over extended.
  • #360
  • Jul 15, 2007 12:52am Jul 15, 2007 12:52am
Still trying to get the hang of what constitutes a weekly retrace. For the week ending 13 July. We have 3 touches to the 2.0365, well within a few pips. After the second touch we have a retrace to the 61.8 fib of the weekly fib. Is that considered the weekly retrace or because the third touch is like 2-3 pips higher do we say the weekly retrace hasn't happened yet?
Attached Image
0 traders viewing now