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USD/CHF

  • #61
  • Jun 25, 2007 5:38am Jun 25, 2007 5:38am
i suppose a long usd/chf looks good from an technical perspective right now..
  • #62
  • Jun 25, 2007 6:16am Jun 25, 2007 6:16am
Quoting VEC
i suppose a long usd/chf looks good from an technical perspective right now..
It might be but the trend has been down since Friday so it's probably wise to wait and trade with the trend.

European equities are falling and there seems to be a spot of carry trade unwinding. This would be CHF positive. Also the Swiss are quite hawkish about further rate increases ...again CHF positive. Worries about the CDO problem might further weaken USD.

I'm short this pair and will stay so until equities reverse their fall or until there is an obvious change of trend for whatever reason. (retracing as I write..lol..of course).. Cheers
  • #63
  • Jun 25, 2007 6:34am Jun 25, 2007 6:34am
Quoting VEC
i suppose a long usd/chf looks good from an technical perspective right now..
Can you please explain what technicals you are looking at for a long entry?

Thx
DL
  • #64
  • Jun 25, 2007 6:44am Jun 25, 2007 6:44am
Quoting deepleo
As the price cosed below the 200EMA in 4H & Day it may retrace to 1.2305 or 1.2323 before continuing with the downfall. I'm still holding my short position with +88 pips.

DL
As I said it did retrace to 1.2308 from 1.2286 and went down to 1.2271. If the price closes above 1.2310 then I may close my short position.
  • #65
  • Jun 25, 2007 6:50am Jun 25, 2007 6:50am
Check Fibo at
red 50%
white 75%
blue 50%
and yellow channel up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #66
  • Jun 25, 2007 9:26pm Jun 25, 2007 9:26pm
Weekly resistance line was clearly broken and it seems it could act as a support now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.chf.jpg Size: 42 KB
  • #67
  • Jun 25, 2007 9:44pm Jun 25, 2007 9:44pm
Quoting MackS10
Weekly resistance line was clearly broken and it seems it could act as a support now.
I agree with you but until unless the price close above 1.2315 [where I will close my short position] the down trend
is still intact and if the price closes below 1.2265 this pair may go down to around 1.2180.
  • #68
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:29pm Jun 25, 2007 10:29pm
Still holding long cable, short swissy.
  • #69
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:34pm Jun 25, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting bodge
Still holding long cable, short swissy.
Short cable, long swissy.
  • #70
  • Jun 25, 2007 11:59pm Jun 25, 2007 11:59pm
Quoting bodge
Still holding long cable, short swissy.
I'm long GBP 9984.....this should be an interesting trade as it failed to break below 9930 and failed to break above 20015....Bears vs Bulls

Breeze
  • #71
  • Jun 27, 2007 8:30am Jun 27, 2007 8:30am
Quoting deepleo
I agree with you but until unless the price close above 1.2315 [where I will close my short position] the down trend
is still intact and if the price closes below 1.2265 this pair may go down to around 1.2180.
Got bored with the range and closed my SHORT with +90 and waiting to go SHORT again once the price 'closes' below 1.2265.
  • #72
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:05pm Jun 27, 2007 7:05pm
You got boring right DL.
Its like waiting for paint to dry......painful.
It has definately moved into a verrrrrry comfortable range, and until a breakout paves the way,we don't have much but top-bottom short range trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf4hr.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #73
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:09pm Jun 27, 2007 7:09pm
skfx,

I see you are using DeMark trend lines, I also use trend lines combination of DeMark, Mouteki and Straight edge.

DL
  • #74
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:28pm Jun 27, 2007 7:28pm
DL, yes i quite like DeMark's gear.It seems to be very helpful and accurate.Or as accurate as one can be with a market that cannot be defined nor predicted 100%. I use his tools with basic price action bars (thanks james16) and support resistance and trendlines.
I guess thats the best we can do right? With just a hint of money management and risk control.Theres the holy grail right there my friend.
Keep up the fine work.

Cheers
SK
  • #75
  • Jun 28, 2007 12:31pm Jun 28, 2007 12:31pm
Holy batman! USD/CHF has broken out of its range at last!
  • #76
  • Jun 28, 2007 7:31pm Jun 28, 2007 7:31pm
Quoting el_duende
Holy batman! USD/CHF has broken out of its range at last!
It took one week to bring my position alive.
  • #77
  • Jun 29, 2007 6:50pm Jun 29, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting bodge
The top forming on the weekly chart (and its position) should make the bulls rethink. cable is bullish and this pair is looking really bearish to me. Just my opinion.
So who else kept selling this pair? I sold it right up to the top.
  • #78
  • Jun 30, 2007 11:10am Jun 30, 2007 11:10am
Quoting deepleo
I agree with you but until unless the price close above 1.2315 [where I will close my short position] the down trend
is still intact and if the price closes below 1.2265 this pair may go down to around 1.2180.
Huh..I missed it in the midst of CAD (USDCAD & EURCAD) chaos..now the price is 1.2210.
  • #79
  • Jul 1, 2007 6:13am Jul 1, 2007 6:13am
Point of Interest from Fxcm

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...29-07tech5.gif
Commentary: As mentioned here yesterday, “the decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance. Near term, it looks like a 4th wave correction is unfolding.” The 5th wave is unfolding now and we will look for a rally towards 1.2341 (next week) in order to get bearish. However, the USDCHF structure is now longer term bearish and suggests that the CHF will outperform ther currencies (especially the GBP).
Strategy: None
  • #80
  • Jul 1, 2007 12:33pm Jul 1, 2007 12:33pm
Sooo tricky 'cause:

CHF is strengthening because of expected rate increases.

AND

With a little USD weakness and JPY weakness it goes down as expected

BUT

With JPY strength CHF/JPY tanks together with all the other JPY crosses and USD/CHF seems to go up regardless of the strength /weakness of USD .

No idea what would happen with heavy "carry" unwinding...guess we will just have to wait and trade what we see.....but I think there are easier pairs in this scenario (anything/JPY?)
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