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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #221
  • Jun 22, 2007 4:01am Jun 22, 2007 4:01am
OK - well to put that to rest - I signed up for their 'free' trial - and guess what - they actually mention 'Chaos Theory', 'Fractal Analysis', and couple of other things so there you are.

Anyway - I have ten days to give their 'system' a test - if it's any good - I'll let you know (although I have a funny feeling that I know all of this already thanks to Bill Williams and this thread).

Regards,

Dale.
  • #222
  • Edited 7:52am Jun 22, 2007 6:10am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting fintrans
Anyway - I have ten days to give their 'system' a test - if it's any good - I'll let you know (although I have a funny feeling that I know all of this already thanks to Bill Williams and this thread).
A system might be useful if and only if:

 

  1. it is clearly defined (and explaind why this rules should be applied)
  2. it is followed exactly by the trader until it become "its own"


In my belief both issues above must be true.
Only then there is a chance for trader to profit from it.

Each system has some seed of truth - the point is to find them

  • #223
  • Edited 9:40am Jun 22, 2007 9:15am | Edited 9:40am
I just noticed something fantastic:

Have you ever just zoomed out to a full view of your chart and then had a look at where the fractals are? Man - this is fantastic! The 'fractal' support and resistance lines just jump out at you!

I have always had a hard time with fibo (mainly because you are never sure where to start or where to stop and what constitutes a swing high and what constitutes a swing low etc. etc. etc.) but using the fractals and drawing horizontal lines across them you'd be surprised at how cleary the support and resistance lines pop out!

Edit:

Sorry - I forgot to mention - support and resistance are extremely clear on the shorter timeframes i.e. there are many more fractals being displayed.

Regards,

Dale.
  • #224
  • Jun 22, 2007 9:40am Jun 22, 2007 9:40am
Quoting fintrans
I just noticed something fantastic:

Have you ever just zoomed out to a full view of your chart and then had a look at where the fractals are? Man - this is fantastic! The 'fractal' support and resistance lines just jump out at you!

I have always had a hard time with fibo (mainly because you are never sure where to start or where to stop and what constitutes a swing high and what constitutes a swing low etc. etc. etc.) but using the fractals and drawing horizontal lines across them you'd be surprised at how cleary the support and resistance lines pop out!

Regards,

Dale.
A chart sample will be welcome
  • #225
  • Jun 22, 2007 10:00am Jun 22, 2007 10:00am
Here you are (I hope this works as I had to 'squeeze' and 'stretch' the chart to make it fit in the allowed dimensions).

What do you think?

You could use it by placing orders either buy or sell one or two ticks above or below the lines.

Regards,

Dale.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fractal sr.jpg Size: 62 KB
  • #226
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:09pm Jun 22, 2007 1:09pm
Quoting fintrans
Here you are (I hope this works as I had to 'squeeze' and 'stretch' the chart to make it fit in the allowed dimensions).

What do you think?
This is another possible explanation of fractals, because
Quote
...The fractal always means change in behaviour...

In other words fractals is support and and resistance
  • #227
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:15pm Jun 22, 2007 1:15pm
OK - fair enough - all I'm saying is that by drawing the horizontal lines it is very easy to see how many times that support or resistance has been tested - I just find it easier to see than with fibo.

Regards,

Dale.
  • #228
  • Jun 24, 2007 7:59am Jun 24, 2007 7:59am
hi isto.

i'm reading bill book and he talk a lot about eliott waves , i didn't see you count wave try to see in what cycle are the market, can you explain why you don't use EW?
  • #229
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:18am Jun 25, 2007 1:18am
Quoting 400396
hi isto.

i'm reading bill book and he talk a lot about eliott waves , i didn't see you count wave try to see in what cycle are the market, can you explain why you don't use EW?
OK 400...

I'll use a quotation from Bill's New Trading Dimentions book trying to clear the matter...

...
Another simplification allowed by using these Balance Lines is that we can trade the Elliott Waves without the necessity for accurate counting. If the current price is outside the Alligator's mouth, we are in an impulsive wave of one degree or another. If the price is meandering around the Balance Lines, we are in a reactive wave of one degree or another.
...
  • #230
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:26am Jun 25, 2007 1:26am
thanks isto.

i'm reading Trading Chaos.
  • #231
  • Jun 26, 2007 1:27am Jun 26, 2007 1:27am
Hey isto, how's it going?

I have been studying various daily charts and I keep finding that by placing orders only when 'valid' fractals appear you miss out on a lot of very good trades.

Just have a look at my chart (EUR/NOK Daily). You may have made quite a bit on the way up BUT look at the down movement that you would have missed and I am finding this on most of my charts.

I know (think) that this may have something to do with the divergent bar but I don't see it (at least not on this chart).

Any thoughts?

Dale.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNOK Missed Trades.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #232
  • Jun 26, 2007 3:37am Jun 26, 2007 3:37am
A new Bearish Divergent Bar Setup is visible on USDJPY H4 chart.
If price breaks 123.20 level there will be a nice opportunity to profit...

Another nice Bearish Setup is discussed here
Attached Image
  • #233
  • Jun 26, 2007 3:56am Jun 26, 2007 3:56am
Hello Dale
Quoting fintrans
... by placing orders only when 'valid' fractals appear you miss out on a lot of very good trades....
The best answer I found is again in the Bill's book (I do not considered it as a Bible but explanations in there are very steight and clear )
Quote
... It is essential to understand that we would not take a fractal buy signal if, at the time it is hit, the price is below the Red Balance Line....

If translate the quotation above accourding to your chart it will sounds like:

  1. we do take sell fractal which is formed above the Balance Line, only when at the time it is taken the Balance Line is passed below the fractal level.


Look at the chart - last Bearish fractal is formed above Balance Line and at the time is has been formed is not valid - but when it is taken few sessions later - Balance Line is already above it and the same fractal at that very moment is valid.

Hope I explained it clear ...
Attached Image
  • #234
  • Jun 26, 2007 4:01am Jun 26, 2007 4:01am
Here is just another fresh sample of invalid fractal hit:

taken thow the price is still above Balance Line and therefor we do not take sell. May be few sessions later if another hit occurs...
Attached Image
  • #235
  • Jun 26, 2007 4:37am Jun 26, 2007 4:37am
Hey thanks my man.

Got it.

I'm actually quite mad this morning - I ordered a couple of books from Amazon about a week ago and every one of them has arrived EXCEPT the one that I need most and that is my Bill Williams Second Edition!!!

Thanks for your help.

Regards,

Dale.
  • #236
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:09am Jun 26, 2007 10:09am
Hey isto,

Hello again.

Like I said - it finally arrived!!!

Anyway (before I start reading) I have a question for you i.e. what would you do do you think?

This morning I placed a sell stop order for USD/NOK on the 4 hour chart.

I always use the value of the Alligator's lip for my stop loss.

The order that I placed this morning was triggered and the price immediately retracted until eventually my stop was hit.

I then had a look at the daily chart (I believe this system works the best on the daily's) and noticed that there was a valid sell fractal that appeared three days ago that was triggered yesterday and although the price retracted immediately after that I would still be in the trade had I have had a sell stop order placed three days ago. So I placed a market order sell immediately. What do you think?

In other words - even if you see a valid fractal late - do you think it's OK to then immediately enter the trade as long as you enter the trade at a place where you would still have been in the trade had you noticed the fractal on time and your stop loss (or at least the place where you would have placed your stop loss had you entered the trade on time) has not yet been hit?

Dale.
Attached Images
  • #237
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:13am Jun 26, 2007 10:13am
I also have another question about your findings:

I have started to notice (since last Friday anyway) that the moment a stop order of mine is hit the price almost always immediately retracts and of course you are now in a loss situation. Do you find this happening to you?

I mean - it's driving me crazy - and it is almost as if I should be acting in the totally opposite direction of what the system is telling me.

Regards,

Dale.
  • #238
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:27am Jun 26, 2007 10:27am
who can give indicators for this strategy?

many Thanks
  • #239
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:33am Jun 26, 2007 10:33am
Quoting 4newbie
who can give indicators for this strategy?

many Thanks
If your using mt4 platform they are in your regular indicator's.

Accelerator Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
Alligator
Gator oscillator
Fractals
Moving average 5 sma
You don't need to set any of them (default),
except the moving average......
  • #240
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:41am Jun 26, 2007 10:41am
Quoting amaruenterprise
If your using mt4 platform they are in your regular indicator's.

Accelerator Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
Alligator
Gator oscillator
Fractals
Moving average 5 sma
You don't need to set any of them (default),
except the moving average......
oopss

sorry for stupid newbie Q


thanks
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