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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #807,521
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:18am Feb 5, 2024 10:18am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Pretty sure the FED does control money in circulation: https://www1.udel.edu/htr/American/T...%20circulation. Specifically: The Federal Reserve System manages the money supply in three ways: Reserve ratios. Banks are required to maintain a certain proportion of their deposits as a "reserve" against potential withdrawals. By varying this amount, called the reserve ratio, the Fed controls the quantity of money in circulation
First, accept loans are new money & then see why higher interest rates lower money in circulation.
Central bank influence. There is NO RESERVE ratio whatsoever. The only thing stopping a loan is the risk of it being paid back.
Same situation in all Western countries.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #807,522
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:18am Feb 5, 2024 10:18am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} The existing money supply already tied up in other investment. Looks how brand new money joining the equities market, making it to reach new highs. Unless FED starts QT to reduce extra liquidity. As for us debt, many shouting (i was too) reaching $40T. But US debt-GDP ratio is still less than 100% Among G7 i think its only Japan has a debt-gdp ratio >1. Many economies today are debt driven economies. If todays economy were a company, long time ago, the latter would need to file for bankruptcy. But they got printers.
By restricting the supply of new notes to the market the FED would be engaging in QT.
  • #807,523
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:20am Feb 5, 2024 10:20am
Price is down!! It may go back and retest.
that's why you need to feed on it on a lower time frame.


Monthly is down.
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  • #807,524
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:21am Feb 5, 2024 10:21am
Quoting Bones
Commercial Banks are in charge of money creation. Not central banks.Unless QE is in operation. {image}
Yes and who is it that controls how much debt a commercial bank can issue and how are those controls supported?
That is a part of the bond market.
  • #807,525
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:24am Feb 5, 2024 10:24am
as you can see, I don't have a support level yet, as soon as there is I will immediately open a long position.
M30.
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  • #807,526
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:25am Feb 5, 2024 10:25am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} By restricting the supply of new notes to the market the FED would be engaging in QT.

yes all that debt they are losing money on is going to the market, and then someone has to buy it, there's a massive deficit, and someone has to buy that too
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  • #807,527
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:26am Feb 5, 2024 10:26am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} dan...now that youve solved the usa money supply and spending conundrum care to comment on my question from last nite about brittains pound ....most people were prolly still nursing hangovers sunday evening and didnt want to answer so im reposting it...id really like the conspiracy theorists in the room to comment i cant come up with a sane reason why BOE was propping up the pound all of janurary
Zebi I don't know if it is intervention from the BOE that is impacting the GU or simply the market diddling with price the way that only the market can diddle. If it is the BOE in their next report you will see huge changes in debt. In an election in the UK, I doubt that the central bank will be loading up its balance sheet to support the currency. Loading up the balance sheet to fund programs to buy votes, yes.
  • #807,528
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:27am Feb 5, 2024 10:27am
Quoting BigNumbers
Price is down!! It may go back and retest. that's why you need to feed on it on a lower time frame. Monthly is down. {image}
in it for the ride hopefully up to 1.265 to 1.27 jump in before too late ZEBI!!!!!! where you at bro jump in
  • #807,529
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:29am Feb 5, 2024 10:29am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Yes and who is it that controls how much debt a commercial bank can issue and how are those controls supported? That is a part of the bond market.
The bank controls it, if an economy is doing well they will make the loan, if not, they won't, and the system works well.
The bank looks at the loan and decides whether to make it, based on the specific parameters of the loan. Then the money supply matches the economy naturally.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #807,530
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:30am Feb 5, 2024 10:30am
Apologies I got sidetracked.
Still looking for a sign as to what is going to happen next. Wish I had 'seen' this drop happening but I was sidelined waiting for price to behave the way that I thought it should behave instead of trading what I was given.
  • #807,531
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:32am Feb 5, 2024 10:32am
edited 1.25337.... sell limit
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  • #807,532
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:33am Feb 5, 2024 10:33am
Quoting tiborf71
as you can see, I don't have a support level yet, as soon as there is I will immediately open a long position. M30. {image}
it breach a support area on the daily it's at a exhaustion point for pullback don't let it pass bro
  • #807,533
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:33am Feb 5, 2024 10:33am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Zebi I don't know if it is intervention from the BOE that is impacting the GU or simply the market diddling with price the way that only the market can diddle. If it is the BOE in there next report you will see huge changes in debt. In an election in the UK, I doubt that the central bank will be loading up its balance sheet to support the currency. Loading up the balance sheet to fund programs to buy votes, yes.
Hi. You are absolutely right. The BOE is historically the least invertionist of the major central banks into the currency market, particuylarly since it's attempts to keep Uk in the Exchage Rate mechanism (the forerunner to the Euro [a peg to the then German Dm,] in Sept'92 ) leading to and on so-called 'Black weds' - and we all know what happened then, so it is very unlikely to intervene directly in the currency markets, and even less likely that it would intervene 'blind,' ie without prior notice to the markets. It has been 'the market' that has kept (until today, and that previous false b/o to 2596) Gbpusd in that multi-week 2828-2610 4hr/dly range. No conspiracy a range is just a period of indecision/consolidation. Today the market may have made up it's mind, but no guarantee of that.

I wrote here recently a counter-narrative to Zebi's strong $ thesis, and there are some big players in this market who have been/are trading this as their current global macro view. To what extent they are now after Fri's NFP and Powell's remarks (again) I don't know..
Trader with an Edge.
  • #807,534
  • Edited 10:58am Feb 5, 2024 10:40am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Zebi I don't know if it is intervention from the BOE that is impacting the GU or simply the market diddling with price the way that only the market can diddle. If it is the BOE in their next report you will see huge changes in debt. In an election in the UK, I doubt that the central bank will be loading up its balance sheet to support the currency. Loading up the balance sheet to fund programs to buy votes, yes.
No one is intervening, he's talking about the pension bale out during the Truss fiasco in which no other country was involved. A temporary program.
Have a look at how money is created, it's the same deal everywhere.
BoE explains it well on the first page.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy
if no link
Just search
Bank of England, Money creation in the modern economy
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #807,535
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:43am Feb 5, 2024 10:43am
Quoting navk
The bulls failed at 9 pm est on sunday. Failed again today 9 am est ( monday ) Now, wait for 12 noon to 1am est 4hr candle. Most likely to reverse. It needs to retrace/reverse. A straight 2772 to 2520 is big range. 252 pips. I do not know what people say...imbalance ?
takes us back to Friday close area as a happy medium between the 2 points
Insane in the Brain..
  • #807,536
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:46am Feb 5, 2024 10:46am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} By restricting the supply of new notes to the market the FED would be engaging in QT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A visualization of QT.
He puts his username in the image,search for him on twitter, he also illustrates, money market, us treasury market, repo market and many others.
This section of liquidity is really confusing but is the heart(or more precisely blood) of finance.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #807,537
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:46am Feb 5, 2024 10:46am
1.25029
1.25120


watch these prices
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  • #807,538
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:46am Feb 5, 2024 10:46am
...the immediate question maybe whether this 2nd dly b/o of the 2828-2610 range on that t/f is truer? Also, will it pullback and retest the range and then continue south? Technically, lots of pot sbr on this t/f if it does pullback to it.

dly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #807,539
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:50am Feb 5, 2024 10:50am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} takes us back to Friday close area as a happy medium between the 2 points
The price may not break s2.

1.2515
Intraday only.
  • #807,540
  • Feb 5, 2024 10:51am Feb 5, 2024 10:51am
Quoting BigNumbers
1.25029 1.25120 watch these prices
My phone in my hands bro I ain't taking no chances until my 20 pips are reach then its whatever after that
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