Cable Update (GBPUSD)

G/M, a genuine gap down@ open? (judging by ff.com anyways, - as opposed to just broker spread widening @ open.) All up during Asian session to a hi above Friday's hi, and an early London sell-off from Dly R1/a prev 4hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot sbr...Asian hi and lo are presently the curreht dly hi and lo.

1hr below

My sense is that GU is getting dragged with DXY and not 'really' participating in any move...

Waiting for LO perhaps ??

Either that or trying to build liquidity to fund a move.

Edit or commitments in the 'wrong direction' before moving!

TP smashed

...you can see on chart below where early London forex desks encountered supply - that prev 4hr sw lo zone = prev res = pot sbr @ Dly R1. gave back over 50% of the day's current lo-hi @ the current p/back lo.

4hr with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic below

1.2707 is the price for the bulls. I will buy after the retest.

long term you will be successful

this is very correct

I am waiting for perfect time to enter

... it was interesting to read Zebi's ongoing 'defense' of why the $ will remain strong again this w/e, if only because he got 'prompted' in his ongoing battle of ego's with Bones. He uses a provocative / 'in your face' prose style and I sometimes think he mixes up nationism with economics. There is a link of course but it is not necessarily a direct one and in any event the 2 are not mutually exclusive. Calling the £ 'worthless' and other stuff, Zebi - you understand that unit for unit the £ is still worth more than the $,!? (and I don't mean this in a nationalist way.) Anyways, there is a counter-argument/narrative to the one he puts forward that says the $ will weaken into the medium-term, for these reasons;

1. The Fed is at least currently more likely to cut rates before the Boe. The fabled 'soft landing' is looking more likely than the Uk with data generally stronger than the later. Boe after last week's higher-than-expected inflation data and bad retail sales may have to consider another rise, or at least keep rates higher for longer?
2. The never-ending 'fiscal cliffs' faced by the U.s will only get worse, and this is an election year too. Demand for it's debt is on the wane and it's dominance as the world's reserve/petro currency is under some threat, although I doubt that we will see any real change in this anytime soon, so long as they can keep servicing this debt. It finds itself on the wrong end of the exponentiality curve re debt. (Do they not teach this stuff in Western countries lol!)
3. Politically, the U.s is not as stable as it used to be. The 30/35 ish % of the population with long-held grudges/big govt suspicions/still fighting the civil war/'settling the west' maga support that Trump has whipped into a movement is not going away, even if he does. Instability in politics leads to instability elsewhere and loss of confidence in a country's economy.

It's a counter-hypothesis. I have no idea which will play out, and in any event it's probably a matter of timescale as much as anything else. From a trading point of view, don't care either as I am a technical trader.

1.2693 - 1.2708 is the zone to watch. Manipulation

...there is a repeating pattern of 30min bullish hidden div present @ the current p/back lo which may stay valid whilst price above Asian/current dly lo.

1hr below

How to Negotiate

https://twitter.com/i/status/1748415691772846417

Patiently waiting.

No trade for me yet today.

STill away from scalping haha

...buyers found some liquidity - strong bounce up from the Mthly/Wkly pivots area and a 50% fib. Price still in the Asian pip range so far this London morning.

1hr below

127 seems to be supporting quite well however the moves above look tight too. Maybe needs a deeper drop to reject? Not sure

add short 2707..just little fly to preparing big drop

...gmt+2 price feed 4hr candle could well close as a bearish engulf in a few mins, how long will the lower wick be though?

4hr below