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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #15,281
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:39pm Jun 20, 2007 1:39pm
I agree with Cesar, I never based my trading on trendlines because they are very unreliable

Look at that chart, it indicates a break out but really cable could drop now back on the channel signaling a false breakout and then breaking up again... or it could go straight up leaving no room for guys waiting to buy on retraction... the odds aren't really strong on trendlines so I just don't pay much attention to them
  • #15,282
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:57pm Jun 20, 2007 1:57pm
I think cable wants to reach upper level of Keltner Channel then correction downside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,283
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:59pm Jun 20, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting goonergonebad
So, as a rule of thumb, three touches (strikes) and out. How many points above line to confidently predict a breakout?
the confidence comes from you, not anything else.

once it gets near that channel line, put it under a microscope. maybe you use MA lines, or MACD's or RSI or Fibs or Stochs or etc,. other indicators.

what i do is to zero in and look at the candle/price/bar action. that'll take some experience. nothing more. just keep trading and it should come to you. basic crowd behavior to the news events ect.

then place a trade, using stop loss.

that's all there is to it.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,284
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:03pm Jun 20, 2007 2:03pm
Quoting camisa
..trading on trendlines because they are very unreliable

Look at that chart, it indicates a break out but really cable could drop now back on the channel signaling a false breakout and then breaking up again... or it could go straight up leaving no room for guys waiting to buy on retraction... the odds aren't really strong on trendlines so I just don't pay much attention to them
that's great. you know what you don't like. stay away from it then. that is one of the key in becoming a good trader. you need to stick with what you feel comfortable with. even if the strategy is great, if you don't feel comfortable with it, you are bound to lose, give up, sooner or later.

i believe i've said this before a while ago, but finding what you like in this business takes more time then you can imagine for most people.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,285
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:09pm Jun 20, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting goonergonebad
..confidently..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=14

still applies today.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,286
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:12pm Jun 20, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting camisa
I agree with Cesar, I never based my trading on trendlines because they are very unreliable
I, in the other hand, say trendlines are the most reliable indicators for trading, the larger the timeframe, the stronger.Declaring them "breached", however, demands confirmation. I don't trade them first time they are touched or declare them breached first pip above it.

Confirmation, in this case, would materialize either by breaching previous highs or bouncing off the trendline itself as to test if it has already turned into support. 9940s are right in the between right now
  • #15,287
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:13pm Jun 20, 2007 2:13pm
Cable looks very tired unable to reach the 99.60
I think, by the end of this week will close around 98.30 to 98.50
do someone agree?

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  • #15,288
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:22pm Jun 20, 2007 2:22pm
I'm agree with cesarnc

i think 9980 is the key level

Quoting cesarnc
I would look for break of previous high (9963) to be convinced this is not a(nother) false breakout. Seen Cable spending quite sometime out of channels like this just to get back in on the next day.

I'm not saying it is a false breakout. What I'm saying is that I'm looking for confirmation.

Now, a test of the trendline acting like a support now would be awesome.
  • #15,289
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:26pm Jun 20, 2007 2:26pm
my opinion is ...to get over 2.0 in one shoot we need a "holiday day", so if there is no holiday soon, like tomorow, we are going a little down to get some fuell, or we might be in a small range like at 660/680, but in this case 920/940,..untill proven otherwise....we sound like pros...lol
its just money
  • #15,290
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:27pm Jun 20, 2007 2:27pm
I am very sceptical of this trendline break. Mainly because it has been 4 strong days up in a row. Pullback of even a minor amount is due.

1.9936 is 61.8% move (2.0131 - 1.9621)

1.9964 is previous swing high

1.9929 & 1.9948 levels are Tom DeMark TD Trend Factors.

Doesn't mean it won't break through. Just don't think so at this time.
  • #15,291
  • Edited 2:58pm Jun 20, 2007 2:28pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting pablorpl
I'm agree with cesarnc

i think 9980 is the key level
I don't think the break of the 99.63 will happen for now, may be it will after rising the interest rate in july.
Now, the result came 5-4 but no rate hike yet, that still under question.
Let us see, I am still sticking with my opinion

(by the way, the Dollar is not in that bad shape! )"do not believe bloomberg news all the time"
================
  • #15,292
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:33pm Jun 20, 2007 2:33pm
We have to put the dollar in the picture, too. As I'm not clear about what's next for the greenback, I'm going for quick trades in cable only, like today at the news.

Euro is also failing at the top of its channel in the daily chart.

Now we have Cable and Euro at important levels in the topside and dollar-index at the (previous support, then previous resistance, now support again?) 82.5 level.
  • #15,293
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:55pm Jun 20, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting gobigo12
Long 9878
closed,
don't want to push it any further.
happy with a 62 pip gain.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #15,294
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:24pm Jun 20, 2007 3:24pm
just my small tribute to trend line from A. Elder


Laoma
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Elder Trend lines.JPG Size: 111 KB
  • #15,295
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:30pm Jun 20, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting gobigo12
closed,
don't want to push it any further.
happy with a 62 pip gain.
letting mine roll. still in profit if sl is trigged on this one.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,296
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:34pm Jun 20, 2007 3:34pm
Nice retrace in progress, should provide a solid long entry in the asian session
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #15,297
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:39pm Jun 20, 2007 3:39pm
I am worried about the asian market reaction to the minutes tonight. I currently shorting on this retrace and I was planning on setting up a long before asian market. But, I am worried the asian market might push it lower. Any thoughts?
  • #15,298
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:42pm Jun 20, 2007 3:42pm
Either a bounce off the trendline (to go long) or a push through it back inside of the channel (to go short) will provide remarkable r:r ratios.

Patience is the key. I'm not trading until London.
  • #15,299
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:46pm Jun 20, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting cesarnc
..Patience is the key. I'm not trading until London.
you never trade until london. chicken. po po po. are you chicken?

po po po!
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,300
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:44pm Jun 20, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting bravado
letting mine roll. still in profit if sl is trigged on this one.
I see a small decline starting.....looking like it might be a slow death for you if you hold it.
but that's my opinion....good luck.

I have a buy set at 9945 if she tears up again.
and a sell at 9900 if she falls if triggered.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
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