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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #15,261
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:23am Jun 20, 2007 10:23am
Quoting gobigo12
Bravado.
I was also long since 9719 also and closed it at 9830.
then grabbed a new one at the 9878 which I'm still holding.

trying to find this top.
so far the bulls are holding ground. got a tight sl below just in case.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,262
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:24am Jun 20, 2007 10:24am
interesting

Quoting katzenhai2
UN sees the risk of a serious recession of the United States in 2007/2008, putting further downward pressure on the United States dollar:
http://www.un.org/News/briefings/doc...Ocampo.doc.htm
  • #15,263
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:34am Jun 20, 2007 10:34am
that's right .
rules of the game are slowly changing, because more and more people understand and successfully apply technical and fundamental analysis to make consistent profits.
if everyone starts to win, someone has to lose... but big guys? no. i don't think so. that 90% failing must be somehow maintained and it's gonna be among us, not among them.

Quoting zamans98
No matter what we think and believe, the big sharks keep the Cable upwards.

Just 2 weeks ago was 1.96xx and now here we are 1.99xx.

Fundamental analysis make no sense at all lately.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #15,264
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:34am Jun 20, 2007 10:34am
Quoting pablorpl
{{{{{ EU showing signs of high and it may continue with dowtrend...(volatility of EU was very nice last weeks) }}}}
eu is going crazy. thats for sure.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,265
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:37am Jun 20, 2007 11:37am
Quoting zamans98
No matter what we think and believe, the big sharks keep the Cable upwards.

Just 2 weeks ago was 1.96xx and now here we are 1.99xx.

Fundamental analysis make no sense at all lately.
im new to forex and learning, i stick to cable, im having a rough time because of this statement above ..
  • #15,266
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:44am Jun 20, 2007 11:44am
...pretty much self-explanatory: in these markets (both forex and indices) fundamentals are shirked of by traders. however, realistically and long-term, as far as I'm concerned, fundamentals matter. think of the Dow and the Dax at the moment: no correlation to what's going on in the real world. Not just a pullback, but a hefty correction on the cards. It will be quick and it will be bloody...
  • #15,267
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:47am Jun 20, 2007 11:47am
Quoting Tatton
im new to forex and learning, i stick to cable, im having a rough time because of this statement above ..
Welcome to Cable-land and Forex. Its tough at the best of times learning to trade successfully but many have done it. Just remembere to take your time, learn as much as you can and demo well before going live. Live is a totally different experience from demo so practice, practice, practice and develop your own strategy.

One thing I was taught which has always stood me in good stead... "always act in your own self interest ".

Enjoy the fun !
  • #15,268
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:50am Jun 20, 2007 11:50am
Quoting musicman007

One thing I was taught which has always stood me in good stead... "always act in your own self interest ".
Amen to that, because at the end of the day you can't blame no one but yourself.
  • #15,269
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:58am Jun 20, 2007 11:58am
Quoting Scrat
that's right .
rules of the game are slowly changing, because more and more people understand and successfully apply technical and fundamental analysis to make consistent profits.
if everyone starts to win, someone has to lose... but big guys? no. i don't think so. that 90% failing must be somehow maintained and it's gonna be among us, not among them.
I'm relatively new to forex trading same as Tatton, and still finding my feet both in terms of technical analysis and fundamentals. For me the main problem with the current market is the carry trade. Take today. For me, there is insufficient good news to warrant the current strength of cable and all technicals (IMO) suggest a down trend, yet the GBJ is dragging it up - simple as that. I am slowly learning that you just have to make allowances for the demand for cheap yen and the big boy's gambles for better returns in other currencies like sterling.
Personally, I still think the stick-on trade in the coming days (until the possible rate hike) is a short. Sterling is overvalued\overbought, the 61.8 fib and the down trend channel resistance line are still holding.
But, then again, I am still learning...........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trendchannel.jpg Size: 39 KB
  • #15,270
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:01pm Jun 20, 2007 12:01pm
Quoting free4440273
...pretty much self-explanatory: in these markets (both forex and indices) fundamentals are shirked of by traders. however, realistically and long-term, as far as I'm concerned, fundamentals matter. think of the Dow and the Dax at the moment: no correlation to what's going on in the real world. Not just a pullback, but a hefty correction on the cards. It will be quick and it will be bloody...
Yes - how many times have I capitulated - and said to myself > 'the market can remain irrational longer than i can remain liquid' - and about 1.2 nanoseconds after I come out, the fundamentals reassert themselves and the market becomes rational. It's no consolation being right too late.

I suppose all this stuff is what makes it such good fun and so dangerous ...
I have lost more money through stop losses being whipped that any violent movement in the market and my biggest gain was when i accidentally left a trade on with no limit and went on holiday - when I came back it was mega !

Wouldn't recommend it though !
  • #15,271
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:06pm Jun 20, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting allserene
Yes - how many times have I capitulated - and said to myself > 'the market can remain irrational longer than i can remain liquid' - and about 1.2 nanoseconds after I come out, the fundamentals reassert themselves and the market becomes rational. It's no consolation being right too late.
...no, absolutely. given especially that we all have to put our money where our mouth is. why don't we all just get 'proper' jobs? beats me!
  • #15,272
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:15pm Jun 20, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting goonergonebad
I'm relatively new to forex trading same as Tatton..I am still learning...........
you need to learn how to draw a trend line. that top trendline on your channel is all wrong. if you draw it correctly, you will clearly see that the current level is above the top channel line.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,273
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:25pm Jun 20, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting bravado
you need to learn how to draw a trend line. that top trendline on your channel is all wrong. if you draw it correctly, you will clearly see that the current level is above the top channel line.
Do you mean like this?

I did say I was still learning.

But it does seem logical to me that the April high coupled with today's current high (which is the 61.8 fib approx.) is a total parallel to the line running through the April 13th, May 21st and June 8th lows.

Thanks for the feedback. Perhaps you know a good reference site or book I could read.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,274
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:25pm Jun 20, 2007 12:25pm
Just to look at trend lines since 18th April we can see it has changed many times - pic 1, I myself have constantly altered it as times gos by as it looks better, however I learnt I was cheating myself here and it was costing me pips.

pic 2 shows another possible trend which is up and may signify $2+

Trend lines can help but Ive learnt that price can and will ignore them!

edit people already posted im too slow lol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gb2.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #15,275
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:28pm Jun 20, 2007 12:28pm
Yep I concur, the top trend line is wrong for a support and resistance role. It could still act as a guide line, but don't expect price to respect it.

Edit: much better
  • #15,276
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:42pm Jun 20, 2007 12:42pm
Quoting el_duende
Just to look at trend lines since 18th April we can see it has changed many times - pic 1, I myself have constantly altered it as times gos by as it looks better, however I learnt I was cheating myself here and it was costing me pips.

pic 2 shows another possible trend which is up and may signify $2+

Trend lines can help but Ive learnt that price can and will ignore them!

edit people already posted im too slow lol
I can see your uptrend angle as well. I just feel that good US news tomorrow and Governor Fukui hopefully making some positive even non-negative comments about the yen could help cable resume the downtrend.

Anyway, you and Shadeslay's points about trend lines taken on board.

Thanks.
  • #15,277
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:49pm Jun 20, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting goonergonebad
Do you mean like this?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1182360414
much better.

http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/2...1410065408.jpg
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,278
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:11pm Jun 20, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting goonergonebad
..Perhaps you know a good reference site or book I could read.
if you need more advice probably igrok is the one you should seek.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=21887&page=29

he is one of the technical gurus on this site.

///

how i do it is, generally you want to have at least 3 points touching the trend line. that's all.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #15,279
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:31pm Jun 20, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting bravado
much better.

http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/2...1410065408.jpg
I would look for break of previous high (9963) to be convinced this is not a(nother) false breakout. Seen Cable spending quite sometime out of channels like this just to get back in on the next day.

I'm not saying it is a false breakout. What I'm saying is that I'm looking for confirmation.

Now, a test of the trendline acting like a support now would be awesome.
  • #15,280
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:32pm Jun 20, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting bravado
if you need more advice probably igrok is the one you should seek.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=21887&page=29

he is one of the technical gurus on this site.

///

how i do it is, generally you want to have at least 3 points touching the trend line. that's all.
Thanks, I know about Igrok's reputation here, but was unaware of the nature of his thread. I'll check it out.
So, as a rule of thumb, three touches (strikes) and out. How many points above line to confidently predict a breakout?
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