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GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action 109 replies

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Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

  • #321
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:23pm Jun 18, 2007 8:23pm
hi...

Are you actually trading this idea...or just explaining the principles.....would enjoy watching you trade even if demo...as I think there must be more to getting trading right than indicators.(ma's..stoch..)and such..
  • #322
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:34pm Jun 18, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting Angler
hi...

Are you actually trading this idea...or just explaining the principles.....would enjoy watching you trade even if demo...as I think there must be more to getting trading right than indicators.(ma's..stoch..)and such..
Yes I use these principles for my entries and exits. Right now I am currently long EurJpy but it you look at the the weekly from the 4hr chart and you can seet it is over extended without any real major retracement.

As you can see from the statistical probability that the EurJpy has retraced to the weekly fib 23.6 every week this year. It is sure to give up some of its ground here in the next day or so. According to past history. Will be looking for a top then short the drop.
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  • #323
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:37pm Jun 18, 2007 8:37pm
Right now I am looking at some weekly strategies on a few of the currencies now. Be getting some information out on it.
  • #324
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:45pm Jun 18, 2007 8:45pm
For Instance too on the GbpUsd I would keep this chart in mind if I were long. Notice it peaks out during the middle of the week. I am not in this trade yet but I am looking to go long on it today.
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  • #325
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:50pm Jun 18, 2007 8:50pm
Also if you look at this chart it shows that the gbpusd very rarely stays in the same direction Monday thru Friday. These are daily candles with a red rectangle showing the week closed lower then the opening and the blue rectangle showing the close higher then the opening for the week.
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  • #326
  • Jun 18, 2007 9:04pm Jun 18, 2007 9:04pm
With EurJpy I will be keeping these probabilities in mind with today's trading for my exit strategy.
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  • #327
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:30pm Jun 18, 2007 10:30pm
Below is a Table Of Content Showing Daily & Weekly Ranges with other Statistics and Price Action



Post 81 shows 4hr range for each 4hr candle/bar
GbpUsd
EurJpy
GbpJpy
UsdCad

UsdJpy

The Below Pages and Posts Show the Weekly and Daily Ranges For The Below Currencies

Aud Usd Page 19 post 278-281
EurAud Page 19,20 and Posts 282-286
EurJpy Page 20 Posts 287-291
EurUsd Page 20 Posts 292-296
GbpJpy Page 20,21 Posts 297-301
GbpUsd Page 21 Posts 302-306
UsdCad Page 21 Posts 307-311
UsdChf Page 21,22 Posts 312-316
Usd Jpy Page 22 Posts 317-321

Price Action Around Floor Traders Supports, Resistance, and Pivot Points and the daily fibs
EurAud Posts 139-143 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Posts 147-150 (6/1/07)
EurJpy Posts 154-157 (6/1/07)
EurUsd Posts 162-165 (6/1/07)
UsdCad Posts 169-172 (6/1/07)
UsdChfPosts 177-180 (6/1/07)
GbpJpy Posts 184-187 (6/1/07)
UsdJpy Posts 192-195 (6/1/07)

DAYS OF THE WEEK (DAR)
EurUsd Post 214 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Post 215 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 220 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS WITH CHART

GbpUsd Page 19 Post 273


WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 6/17/07

WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS FOR THE YEAR WITH CHART

UsdJpy Page 19 Post 274
EurJpy Page 19 Post 275


FIB RETRACEMENTS
GbpUsd Page 19 post 271
  • #328
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:44pm Jun 18, 2007 10:44pm
At first glance, this looks like some fine work.

Will see if I can contribute anything myself, such as converting the thread to a PDF.

Thanks.
  • #329
  • Jun 19, 2007 1:15pm Jun 19, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting goodthings
Yes I use these principles for my entries and exits. Right now I am currently long EurJpy but it you look at the the weekly from the 4hr chart and you can seet it is over extended without any real major retracement.

As you can see from the statistical probability that the EurJpy has retraced to the weekly fib 23.6 every week this year. It is sure to give up some of its ground here in the next day or so. According to past history. Will be looking for a top then short the drop.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT INFO AND THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME TO PUT IT TOGETHER,I TRADE THE EUR/JPY.
  • #330
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:08pm Jun 19, 2007 2:08pm
Hi Goodthings,

When you are doing your evaluations are you running it through any decision making software (CART, A.I., etc.)?


Thanks,
PH
  • #331
  • Jun 19, 2007 5:59pm Jun 19, 2007 5:59pm
Quoting pip_hunter
Hi Goodthings,

When you are doing your evaluations are you running it through any decision making software (CART, A.I., etc.)?


Thanks,
PH
Evaluations come from daily and weekly high low open close off of met 4 then transfered to an excell spread sheet and put together from there. Will admit it is a little klunky but that is all I know. Maybe Microsoft access would work too not sure. You have any ideas.
  • #332
  • Jun 19, 2007 6:40pm Jun 19, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting goodthings
Evaluations come from daily and weekly high low open close off of met 4 then transfered to an excell spread sheet and put together from there. Will admit it is a little klunky but that is all I know. Maybe Microsoft access would work too not sure. You have any ideas.

I have been looking at different systems the last few weeks. I found a few systems that use Decision trees and can be exported from Excel or even a macro can be implemented into excel. Here's a list of ones: http://www.kdnuggets.com/software/cl...sion-tree.html as you can see there are a lot.

I have also toyed with the idea of A.I. from ward systems. They have a predictor model and another one that is a complete trading platform.

I have used Calsci (California Scientific Software) but it is to labor intensive to be efficent for my needs. With Ward's Predictor it is more user friendly. You can see by these screen shots: http://www.wardsystems.com/predictor.asp

I have also read in EDU papers while surfing, that the best results happened when they weren't going for a specific price but averages. One input that came up often were the Fib levels.

From all my reading so far and I continue to do more, I am leaning to the Ward Systems.

I'll keep you posted when I end up getting it. It probably won't be for awhile but when I do I'll fire off a PM to you.

Brett
  • #333
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:11pm Jun 19, 2007 8:11pm
These are weekly fib retracement level probabilities for UsdJpy base on the weekly high and low. This is where it sits this week in regards to fib retracements of last weeks high and low.
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  • #334
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:36pm Jun 19, 2007 8:36pm
Last week the UsdChf already retraced to all of the fib levels so they are not really applicable for this week. These fib levels are based on last weeks high and low
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  • #335
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:43pm Jun 19, 2007 8:43pm
This is an example from the UsdChf a couple of weeks ago. As you can see there was a big run and none of the weekly fib levels were hit the week of the big run and not the following week which was last week. The fib level of 23.6 was not hit after the big run and this was the first time this happended all year. Up until last week the 23.6 fib level was hit every week. These retracement levels are based on being hit after the weeks high and low are established. Sometimes the fib levels are hit the same week, like last week or the week after.
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  • #336
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:43pm Jun 19, 2007 9:43pm
Below is a Table Of Content Showing Daily & Weekly Ranges with other Statistics and Price Action



Post 81 shows 4hr range for each 4hr candle/bar
GbpUsd
EurJpy
GbpJpy
UsdCad

UsdJpy

The Below Pages and Posts Show the Weekly and Daily Ranges For The Below Currencies

Aud Usd Page 19 post 278-281
EurAud Page 19,20 and Posts 282-286
EurJpy Page 20 Posts 287-291
EurUsd Page 20 Posts 292-296
GbpJpy Page 20,21 Posts 297-301
GbpUsd Page 21 Posts 302-306
UsdCad Page 21 Posts 307-311
UsdChf Page 21,22 Posts 312-316
Usd Jpy Page 22 Posts 317-321

Price Action Around Floor Traders Supports, Resistance, and Pivot Points and the daily fibs
EurAud Posts 139-143 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Posts 147-150 (6/1/07)
EurJpy Posts 154-157 (6/1/07)
EurUsd Posts 162-165 (6/1/07)
UsdCad Posts 169-172 (6/1/07)
UsdChfPosts 177-180 (6/1/07)
GbpJpy Posts 184-187 (6/1/07)
UsdJpy Posts 192-195 (6/1/07)

DAYS OF THE WEEK (DAR)
EurUsd Post 214 (6/1/07)
GbpUsd Post 215 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 220 (6/1/07)

DAILY FIB RETRACEMENTS WITH CHART

GbpUsd Page 19 Post 273


WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS

GbpUsd Post 6/17/07

WEEKLY FIB RETRACEMENTS FOR THE YEAR WITH CHART

UsdJpy Page 23 Post 336
EurJpy Page 19 Post 275
UsdChf Page 23 Post 337 & 338

FIB RETRACEMENTS
GbpUsd Page 19 post 271
  • #337
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:19am Jun 20, 2007 10:19am
I found this and will be downloading tonight for a review.
http://www.philbrierley.com/
  • #338
  • Edited 8:29am Jun 23, 2007 4:30am | Edited 8:29am
Hi Goodthings,

I have a question on the weekly retrace for the GBP for the week ending 22.6.07.

For the week of 10 June to 15 June you would have considered the lower aqua circle a retrace even though it occurred in the same week..correct? For the week that just ended 22/6/07 do you consider the aqua circle a retrace for the week since it didn't retrace from the high of the week or do you consider this a week with no retracement. If it's not a retracement week then we should see some type of retracement this coming week before a significant high has made. Is my understanding of this correct?
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  • #339
  • Jun 23, 2007 2:48pm Jun 23, 2007 2:48pm
Yes. In the posted chart you can see where a mid week high has been interrupted. You can look at the past weeks and I believe this is only the third time Monday had the low and Friday the high. There is normally a mid week pivot. It may pivot a couple of times but rarely goes for a run of Monday thru Friday. This is a good set up for a next week retracement.
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  • #340
  • Jun 23, 2007 2:53pm Jun 23, 2007 2:53pm
Updated weekly retracements. Weekly retracements are down some from 2006.
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