Disliked{quote} navk, be careful pal, you may be accused of predicting/forecasting the future. Nasty thing never heard of in the financial world. It may encourage companies to forecast their EPS, revenue, profits, dividends, etc. Imagine what would have happened if these predictions didn't pan out. The prices of their stock could sink or skyrocket. Worse, the government could create the Bureau of Labor Statistics and report economic data like CPI, GDP, unemployment rates, and so forth not in line with the predictions/ forecasts of thousands of so-called...Ignored
I worked as a bank/institutional trader, then a (boutique) hedge fund trader, for over 17 years, and I can tell you from my experience that when on the 'fundie/global macro' side we never forecasted/predicted future market reactions over any time span. We used the analysts and in consultation with Risk (simply put) judged as I say what the greater probability might be of future price discovery over the time horizon in question, to the current set of circumstances. We were right or we were wrong, but we were right more often than being wrong. That was our edge. Admittedly I've been out of that world a long time now but even when I talk to ex-colleagues who are still working in the industry, this on what we as retail would still call the fundie/global macro side, is what they still do.
I agree that this forum/thread is lucky to have Navk. Let's look at his post comments line by line;
'A drop close to Daily S1 is what I expect to see when NY opens.'
'Drop to daily s1 is in line with my rules.
A bearish close on friday says that to me.'
What does he mean 'expect?' - what is he basing that statement on? Possibly the bearish dly close on Friday (as he suggests) Possible also a double top on 4hr/dly, weakness in the 4hr uptrend, 1hr downtrend? It probably isn't a forecast, (he has already discounted forecasting/prediction in his posts.) So, it is either his empirically proven edge telling him that this is the greater probability or he has seen a lot of unrecorded anecdotal/observational evidence that is telling him this is the greater probability. If the latter is the case, how does he/we know that he is not suffering from so-called 'confirmation bias?'
'A bounce from there is possible.'
He is outlining a possible scenario should Dly S1 be reached, nothing more, that he (for whatever reason) feels is a plausible scenario and again this may be influenced by empirical evidence from which he has devised his edge, or indeed just anecdotal/observational evidence for which the same caveat as described above applies.
Trader with an Edge.
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