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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #797,581
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:23am Dec 17, 2023 8:23am
Quoting Pat Chiko
GU Technical Outlook on Price Action {image} {image}{image} Fundamental Outlook Imagine the economy is sick with inflation. BoE are the doctors, and their medicine is raising interest rates. Right now, holding rates steady makes sense. It's like the doctor checking the patient carefully before handing out more medicine. They know in the past, doctors (central banks) rushed to lower rates too soon, giving the inflation disease a chance to come back even stronger. But waiting too long with the rate medicine is also dangerous. If the economy gets too...
Nicely put.
Sadly the financial markets and the government manipulation in them are not stagnant. With the US and many other governments on track to increase the money supply to satisfy their need for more foolish spending (Ukraine - Russia war, support for both sides in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, the pending Taiwan China conflict and the new US Mexico border to point out some of the BIG NEW expenses), there is not going to be any downward pressure on inflation to achieve the 2% target (or even moving towards it unless they publish false results) that various central banks and the FED have set. I don't see rate cuts on the horizon!
  • #797,582
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:36am Dec 17, 2023 8:36am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Nicely put. Sadly the financial markets and the government manipulation in them are not stagnant. With the US and many other governments on track to increase the money supply to satisfy their need for more foolish spending (Ukraine - Russia war, support for both sides in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, the pending Taiwan China conflict and the new US Mexico border to point out some of the BIG NEW expenses), there is not going to be any downward pressure on inflation to achieve the 2% target (or even moving towards it unless they publish...
Thanks for your view DANTPM, appreciate your input.
BTW, I agree with your concern about government spending and its potential impact on inflation.
Maintaining stability will be crucial.
It'll be interesting to see how central banks navigate this challenge in the coming months.

You raise valid points about potential inflationary pressures from global events and government spending.
It's important to acknowledge the complexity of the situation and the difficulty of predicting future economic trends.

Acknowledging US Economy:
While I share your concerns about inflationary pressures, I think it's important to consider the differences between the US and other economies.
The US economy, with its relatively strong fundamentals, might have some wiggle room compared to others.

It's true that government spending can fuel inflation, but it's not always a straightforward relationship.
The US economy's current strength should be factored in when analyzing potential inflationary risks.

Focusing on Future:
Definitely something to keep an eye on.
It'll be interesting to see how central banks respond to evolving economic conditions in the coming year.
Yes, tthe landscape is complex.
I'm curious to see how the ongoing geopolitical situation and government spending decisions eventually play out in terms of inflation.

The key takeaway while offering my own thoughts or observations without endorsing potentially which way the market will bring us in 2024.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #797,583
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:39am Dec 17, 2023 8:39am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks for your view DANTPM, appreciate your input. BTW, I agree with your concern about government spending and its potential impact on inflation. Maintaining stability will be crucial. It'll be interesting to see how central banks navigate this challenge in the coming months. You raise valid points about potential inflationary pressures from global events and government spending. It's important to acknowledge the complexity of the situation and the difficulty of predicting future economic trends. Acknowledging US Economy: While I share...
I agree that the US economy is stronger than most, the specific subtlety that I was addressing was increasing the money supply to fund spending instead of increasing taxes or cutting other spending to balance budgets. The US isn't the only government doing this either!
  • #797,584
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:47am Dec 17, 2023 8:47am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Lol..... No way this is yours ? Anyway, I'm planning to decorate my herbal tree as Christmas tree. We dont grow pine tree is Malaysia, thus the best alternative is this. {image} If I lit the tree my neighbors will be the happies people on this planet. I will give them tis T-sHirt and sent a few to FF.{image} Merry Canabis
While Jesus holds a central role in Christianity, his significance extends far beyond that.
In Islam, he is venerated as the prophet Isa Alahi Salam, a righteous figure sent by God to guide humanity.

Both traditions acknowledge and honor Jesus' teachings of love, compassion, and justice. His message transcends specific religious boundaries, offering universal lessons that resonate with anyone seeking spiritual guidance.

Therefore, it's beautiful to recognize Jesus not just as a Christian figure, but as a bridge between faiths, reminding us of shared values and the common ground we find in seeking truth and goodness.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tree in the mosque.jpeg Size: 81 KB

Christmas Tree is side Mosque..... cool eh ?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #797,585
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:47am Dec 17, 2023 8:47am
  • #797,586
  • Dec 17, 2023 8:49am Dec 17, 2023 8:49am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I agree that the US economy is stronger than most, the specific subtlety that I was addressing was increasing the money supply to fund spending instead of increasing taxes or cutting other spending to balance budgets. The US isn't the only government doing this either!
actually if you think about it... the MOney supply has been going up perpetually since birth of capitalism...
its pretty synonymous with an economy's growth...

besides if the economy wasnt increasing money supply, the markets would become a zero sum game where people's loss is another persons gain.

The fact that money supply continue to run and fed target of a 2%, is basically just ensuring the capitalistic world we live in would continue to grow at the expense of currency purchasing power devaluation, and thats how you can convince billionaires like warren buffet to invest his hard earned billions to make more money
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #797,587
  • Edited 9:52am Dec 17, 2023 9:05am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} While Jesus holds a central role in Christianity, his significance extends far beyond that. In Islam, he is venerated as the prophet Isa Alahi Salam, a righteous figure sent by God to guide humanity. Both traditions acknowledge and honor Jesus' teachings of love, compassion, and justice. His message transcends specific religious boundaries, offering universal lessons that resonate with anyone seeking spiritual guidance. Therefore, it's beautiful to recognize Jesus not just as a Christian figure, but as a bridge between faiths, reminding...

theres more similarity between christianity and islam than christianity and judaism so if muslims emphasised that fact things might be better all around

im an atheist btw so i can approach religion dispassionately cause my mind is not crowded with so much crap

if muslims tried pushing that fact that jesus is a prophet in islam and the veneration of his mother in the quran cause our baptists dont know that might make religious freaks in my country change their minds on who to support


start playing commercials on tv saying that fact especially on real housewives and big brother and biggest loser shows so many people see them LOL
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #797,588
  • Dec 17, 2023 9:23am Dec 17, 2023 9:23am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} theres more similarity between christianity and islam than christianity and judaism so if muslims emphasised that fact things might be better all around im an atheist btw so i can approach religion dispassionately cause my mind is not crowded with so much crap if muslims tried pushing that fact that jesus is a prophet in islam cause our baptista dont know that might make religious freaks in my country change their minds on who to support start playing commercials on tv saying that fact especially on real housewives and big...
now I know why you are lonely and bitter since you are an atheist. All makes sense now
  • #797,589
  • Dec 17, 2023 9:24am Dec 17, 2023 9:24am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} actually if you think about it... the MOney supply has been going up perpetually since birth of capitalism... its pretty synonymous with an economy's growth... besides if the economy wasnt increasing money supply, the markets would become a zero sum game where people's loss is another persons gain. The fact that money supply continue to run and fed target of a 2%, is basically just ensuring the capitalistic world we live in would continue to grow at the expense of currency purchasing power devaluation, and thats how you can convince billionaires...
You are very correct.
The challenge or issue is the balance between increasing the money supply and managing inflation. This is the big reason that the FED doesn't want inflation over 2%. If the money supply grows to quickly, it devalues the US$ as it causes high inflation in the US. This is why governments balance taxation, spending and the money supply. As you put it if the system is in balance you have economic growth. If it isn't in balance we have a problem. Covid put a pressure on the global economy as the money supply was increased and the system was put out of balance. That excess money supply was not taken out of the system and now they want to put more pressure on the system by increasing the money supply more. This is what Powell has been complaining about to the US government already.
  • #797,590
  • Edited 10:13am Dec 17, 2023 9:37am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} now I know why you are lonely and bitter since you are an atheist. All makes sense now

i was raised a catholic growing up by a relifgious freak of a mother so i was thought by nuns in grade school we callled sisters... we also had to go to mass every morning before classes started LOL....

in high school it was brothers and church was just once a week

college was run by jesuits so i finally felt some freedom cause there was no church mass i had to go to LOL
my parents paid for my education so i had to endure this suffering

but i resisted indoctrination

i do however like studying histories of all the religions and how they came to be....thats more interesting than the fairytale teaching about god

thats all ill say since ill prolly get banned for my heretical ideas if i keep talking LOL
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #797,591
  • Dec 17, 2023 9:55am Dec 17, 2023 9:55am
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} now I know why you are lonely and bitter since you are an atheist. All makes sense now
nice to see you bak shak

wheres price going in your estimation buddy
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #797,592
  • Dec 17, 2023 10:53am Dec 17, 2023 10:53am
  •  Oylux
  • | Joined Nov 2023 | Status: Natures Best. Nig 🇳🇬 | 66 Posts
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} now I know why you are lonely and bitter since you are an atheist. All makes sense now
lol you can tell a persons character from their religion (strange). Don’t judge brother. Argument doesn’t mean someone is bitter
  • #797,593
  • Dec 17, 2023 11:29am Dec 17, 2023 11:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} actually if you think about it... the MOney supply has been going up perpetually since birth of capitalism... its pretty synonymous with an economy's growth... besides if the economy wasnt increasing money supply, the markets would become a zero sum game where people's loss is another persons gain. The fact that money supply continue to run and fed target of a 2%, is basically just ensuring the capitalistic world we live in would continue to grow at the expense of currency purchasing power devaluation, and thats how you can convince billionaires...
makes sense and I huess why prople would even look at bitcoin?
  • #797,594
  • Dec 17, 2023 12:24pm Dec 17, 2023 12:24pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} i was raised a catholic growing up by a relifgious freak of a mother so i was thought by nuns in grade school we callled sisters... we also had to go to mass every morning before classes started LOL.... in high school it was brothers and church was just once a week college was run by jesuits so i finally felt some freedom cause there was no church mass i had to go to LOL my parents paid for my education so i had to endure this suffering but i resisted indoctrination i do however like studying histories of all the religions and how...
Quite similar, my parents are adherents but they don’t push me in to their beliefs, paid for my education in a worldly secular school, and I’m a free-spirit humanist.

Changing subject
Quoting Zebi
plus a weekly close above 141.62 will give me a buy signal on UJ i hope the dollar haters dont disappoint me LOL
So are you ready to jump in to long the uj today? I'm not ready, wanna see some more up move and enter below that.
  • #797,595
  • Dec 17, 2023 12:54pm Dec 17, 2023 12:54pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.jpg Size: 67 KB


Useful tool. For entertainment purposes only.
  • #797,596
  • Dec 17, 2023 1:10pm Dec 17, 2023 1:10pm
Quoting Georginson
Hello guys, with just 8 trade days left this year, 1.29 - 1.30 cannot be ruled out as far as price trades above 1.2645... I will keep adding buy trades with my stops set at 1.2640. my average target will be set 1.29 axis. Please trade with utmost caution and have a very good end of eventful year 2023.
Hi G , can you please explain why 1.2640 ?
  • #797,597
  • Dec 17, 2023 1:27pm Dec 17, 2023 1:27pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} yes, it is very difficult to find a good long-term approach. if a strategy does not produce the expected results, it should simply be thrown in the trash. and you have to sit down at the drawing board again and again. this is such a profession.
Hi. But I wonder how many promising strategies (aka trading edges) have been abandoned because they were judged over too small a sample size -and/or- they were not traded per the rules of the edge by the trader. (The latter being what the Trading author Mark Douglas calls the profit gap - ie the difference between having an empirically large representative sample [s] proven trading edge, and actually being able to follow all it's rules and risk, money, and trade management which should have been optimized to it's historical performance and personal risk appetite, and make money from it.

I think particularly in the home trader/retail market if in the first say 10 trades it isn't looking good re P&L there is an inclination to abandon something. We know why this is - because the average retail funder is trading with 'scared money' (money he can't really afford to lose,) and is generally under-funded, so over-leverages to make the activity worthwhile re cash generation, and then loses more than he/she is comfortable with and thus abandons a potential edge.

I doubt very much that many more than a handful of traders on this thread (as an example of this section of the trading market,) really know what an edge is, and what it is not, and what you have to know about it to ensure that you always know that it is behaving as in the past - within some acceptable tolerances, assuming of course (as discussed already this w/e) that they have already closed the profit gap. For eg If I said that I had a trading edge that had a historical win rate of say 74% - what is the likely maximum number and average number of consecutive losing trades I am most likely to experience in say the next 50 times I trade it, and if the average does happen - is it a loss I am comfortable with? And, if say I am trading @ 3% risk what is my probable chance (albeit it might be small) of wiping out my margin over that same number of trades? How many would know that? If you don't already - you really ought to know - do so google (etc) research and start learning how to compile these stats for your edge.

Quoting elude
{image} Useful tool. For entertainment purposes only.
Lol - that's adding fuel to some suspicions already here!
Trader with an Edge.
  • #797,598
  • Edited 1:46pm Dec 17, 2023 1:33pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting navk
{quote} ................. bigger times.. because it easily ditches me and disappoints me. I am against big time forecasters too. ( Atleast in this thread.) There were people posted saying following in this thread. 1) Sell from 1.2650 on thursday, when the price rose to 1.2800 2 ) Buy on friday above 1.2800. when the price crashed more than 100 pips from 1.2790 And we know what happened on thursday and friday My " see & trade " pattern in the chart was telling me other way. I know my strength, i am a day trader and not a forecaster. I have...
navk, be careful pal, you may be accused of predicting/forecasting the future. Nasty thing never heard of in the financial world. It may encourage companies to forecast their EPS, revenue, profits, dividends, etc. Imagine what would have happened if these predictions didn't pan out. The prices of their stock could sink or skyrocket.
Worse, the government could create the Bureau of Labor Statistics and report economic data like CPI, GDP, unemployment rates, and so forth not in line with the predictions/ forecasts of thousands of so-called analysts employed by every bank and other financial institutions. U of Michigan can start to brainwash the young people with consumer sentiment, the worst thing an educational institution can do to our future elites.
The technical analysis of financial markets can be changed forever. Some charlatans can create some 5-point patterns -XABCD- and name them with funny names like Gartley, bat, butterfly, and crab. They might even destroy the Dow Theory by assigning Fibonacci ratios to swing highs and swing lows and name it Elliot Wave Principal. Then, they would force us to estimate/forecast/identify C, D, AB=CD, and ABC points using their rules on how to project these points into the future.
Hopefully, you didn't post anything negative in the past about forecasting or wrote something like ...

[A drop close to daily s1 is what I expect to see when NY opens.
A bounce from there is possible.
Drop to daily s1 is in line with my rules.
A bearish close on friday says that to me.]

b/c nasty people here might baselessly be throwing mud at you and accusing you of forecasting.
At least people who know $heet about TA bring a ton of evidence when self-proclaimed professionals mislead good people here with their TA.
We are blessed to have you and a few others here who live their lives the way they want to live, trade the way they want to trade, and allow others to do so, too. Thank you for being open-minded and tolerant. Good luck with your trading.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #797,599
  • Dec 17, 2023 1:40pm Dec 17, 2023 1:40pm
Holding gold shorts into this week
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #797,600
  • Dec 17, 2023 1:40pm Dec 17, 2023 1:40pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. But I wonder how many promising strategies (aka trading edges) have been abandoned because they were judged over too small a sample size -and/or- they were not traded per the rules of the edge by the trader. (The latter being what the Trading author Mark Douglas calls the profit gap - ie the difference between having an empirically large representative sample proven trading edge, and actually being able to follow all it's rules and risk, money, and trade management which should have been optimized to it's historical performance and...
hi
if someone is sufficiently qualified and has been dealing with trading for several years, he can easily see the limits of the possibilities of a new strategy.
experience helps a lot.
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